Mickaël JACQ
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😄 Zelensky hinted at Putin’s impending end “I’m younger than Putin — that matters. He doesn’t have that much time,” the President of Ukraine said to laughter from the audience on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.










🔴'The first duty of a state is to protect its people. Britain has failed in that duty' | Writes David Shipley Read more ⬇️ telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/12/1…





☢️🇷🇺Does the SARMAT Curse Continue?🇷🇺🚀 Today, a Russian missile failed shortly after launch from the Dombarovsky base, near the Kazakh border. While the type of missile has not been officially confirmed, it is likely the SARMAT, which previously destroyed its test silo at Plesetsk in September 2024. In recent days, NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) had been issued in anticipation of this test, covering the area between Dombarovsky and the Kura test range in Kamchatka. The last time this operational deployment site was used for missile launches was during the test campaign for the intercontinental hypersonic glide vehicle AVANGARD. Typically, intercontinental missile tests are conducted from Plesetsk in northwestern Russia or Kapustin Yar in the southwest. The AVANGARD tests were an exception, likely due to the absence of UR-100NUTTH (SS-19 Stilletto) useable silos—the AVANGARD’s booster—at these two test sites. One might therefore assume that today’s test involved an AVANGARD glide vehicle. However, analysis of the NOTAM for the launch area shows it was centered not on the silo previously used for AVANGARD tests, but on a silo that has been very recently renovated. Work there began in spring 2025, after the ice thawed. Following the complete destruction of the SARMAT silo at Plesetsk in September 2024, the leading hypothesis for future tests was a launch from a future operational deployment site for the missile. Work had already begun at Uzhur and Dombarovsky. As the latter had previously been used for AVANGARD tests and is more distant from the Kura test range (which is preferable for intercontinental tests), it made it more likely that tests would be conducted from Dombarovsky. Of course, we cannot rule out that this was an AVANGARD test, but the urgent renovation of a test silo when one already exists is unlikely, whereas it makes much more sense for SARMAT tests. It is worth recalling that the Russian Strategic Missile Forces urgently need to certify the SARMAT, as the program is already several years behind schedule. Meanwhile, the R-36M2 (SS-18) missiles it is supposed to replace have been operating beyond their already extended service life since 2016. In any case, analysis of photos and videos of the failure shows that the missile was indeed powered by UDMH, a highly toxic fuel recognizable by the orange smoke during launches (and explosions). In 2024, I wrote a post (link below) about the environmental consequences of SARMAT tests from Plesetsk, based on a Russian study found by @La_souris_DA . A graph allowed us to estimate the power of the explosion in flight or on the ground based on flight time. For today’s test, it is reasonable to estimate that the missile failed less than one minute after launch, which would correspond to a ground explosion of ~70 tons of TNT equivalent. In conclusion, if this is indeed another SARMAT failure, it would be highly detrimental to the medium-term future of Russian deterrence. The aging R-36M2 missiles, which carry a significant portion of Russia’s strategic warheads, are seeing their replacement pushed even further into the future, while their maintenance—previously handled by Ukraine until 2014—remains highly uncertain. PS: I may, of course, be partially or even completely mistaken, so I welcome any input or comments on this analysis—as long as the discussion remains cordial!🙂 Some sources: Avangard silos thanks to @nukestrat : x.com/nukestrat/stat… Environmental studies for SARMAT test: x.com/Etienne_Marcuz… Upgrade of R-36M2 silos for SARMAT also by @nukestrat and @mattkorda : fas.org/publication/ru… Issues on Russian deterrence's modernizations (SARMAT+BULAVA): x.com/Etienne_Marcuz…












