Roy

Request immediate action on illegal parking on both sides of the road in HUDA Colony, Chanda Nagar, Hyderabad. Despite the government widening the roads, vehicles are still parked illegally, turning the road into a parking spot. Bigger cars and even normal vehicles are struggling to pass daily. This is causing severe inconvenience and safety issues. I request you to enforce no-parking rules, issue challans, and install signage. Location: HUDA Colony, Chanda Nagar, Hyderabad.

@LearningEleven done ✅

Need help. Please report @FritsMonca for impersonation.

@LearningEleven Thank you @LearningEleven for the market summary. Please continue this timepass talk on each Sunday. Look forward to next week Sunday timepass.

Timepass talk on Sunday 1. Navin Fluorine – Lowest number of retail shareholders since 2021 Darolutamide (brand Nubeqa) is a next-generation androgen-receptor inhibitor used to treat prostate cancer. It is considered best-in-class due to lower CNS penetration, meaning fewer side effects (fatigue, seizures) compared with peers like Xtandi/Erleada. The drug is jointly developed and marketed by Bayer AG and Orion Corporation. Orion discovered the molecule; Bayer handles global commercialization and large-scale clinical development. Launched in 2020, Nubeqa did ~€600–700m in 2021 and has already crossed ~€2.3bn annual sales by 2024. Consensus peak sales estimates are $3.5–5B. China rollout has begun, and combination therapies are still being explored, meaning the growth curve may not be finished yet. So where does Navin Fluorine fit in? Darolutamide is a heavily fluorinated complex molecule, requiring advanced fluorination chemistry. Industry tracking indicates Navin supplies specialty fluorinated advanced intermediates in the manufacturing chain. At peak drug sales, this single molecule alone could translate into roughly ₹200–300 crore annual revenue for Navin, and importantly, at very high margins. But the bigger story is not just one molecule. When a global innovator qualifies you for a complex patented oncology drug, it effectively validates your process chemistry, compliance, and reliability. That credibility often leads to additional contracts from other innovators needing advanced fluorinated intermediates, and Navin has already built capacity for such opportunities. In other words: Nubeqa is not just a product opportunity, it’s a credential. 2) Yatra Online – Operating leverage on the cards? For the past couple of weeks, the stock has been taking support near its 200-DMA. Results are due on Feb 11, and management commentary could set the near-term direction. After the IndiGo-related disruption in Q3, the market is expecting some pain, but if we treat that as a one-off, the broader business trajectory still looks constructive. Key things to watch: • Structural shift toward corporate travel: ~68% of bookings now come from corporate & MICE, higher margin, recurring, and far more stable than B2C leisure travel. • ROCE re-rating: Guided to improve from ~5% (FY25) to ~8–9% by FY26 exit and ~13–14% in FY27. Incremental business is already delivering 30%+ ROCE. • Operating leverage inflection: With much of the cost base fixed, revenue growth should increasingly translate into EBITDA expansion. Operating leverage tends to disproportionately benefit platform/tech businesses. Unlike manufacturing, they aren’t constrained by capacity utilization ceilings, once scale kicks in, margins can expand quickly. Let’s see whether Yatra can deliver the inflection in 2026! 3) The AI Noise Over the past few days, several reports suggested that nearly $1 trillion could be spent on AI infrastructure by 2026. That’s an enormous number. Whether this investment ultimately converts into durable earnings, and when, remains an open question. But in the near term, many ancillary players will enjoy a feast! This massive spending should create jobs and stimulate economic activity. Companies like MTAR Technologies, TD Power, Polycab India, and Quality Power are among the names that could benefit from this windfall capex. Then came the announcement from Anthropic, which wiped billions off tech companies’ market caps. The company’s CEO also made a striking prediction: "...Software engineering could become largely obsolete within 6–12 months..." There was a counter from George Noble of the Fidelity Overseas Fund on how many AI models are unable to do good enough job. There’s a lot of noise on both sides, let me not lose my sleeper over it! As Jensen Huang said - "You are not going to lose your job to AI. You are going to lose your job to someone who uses AI." 4) Shilpa Medicare - FY27 may be the real inflection year Back in Q4 FY24, the market expected FY25 to be the breakthrough year for Shilpa Medicare. The stock priced that in, it nearly doubled between Feb/Mar 2024 and Nov 2024. But fundamentals didn’t catch up immediately. H1 FY25 PAT was only ~₹32 Cr, far below expectations, and the stock corrected ~33% in just three months. So why revisit it now? Because it increasingly looks like the “breakthrough year” wasn’t wrong, just delayed. Instead of FY25, it appears to be shifting to FY26. FY25 PAT: ~₹78 Cr and 9M FY26 PAT: ~₹136 Cr already In the Q3 FY26 investor deck, the MD even stated: “...We are confident in a significantly better FY27...” What’s driving that confidence? API & CDMO • NCE pipeline: Three active U.S. NCE programs — one already commercialized, the second in Phase 3, and the third (with Unicycive Therapeutics) getting a dedicated commercial block by Q4 FY26. • Oncology APIs: Added 10 new blockbuster oncology products to the development grid; 3 validated this quarter. • Peptides: Developing semaglutide (oral and injectable). Large-scale peptide manufacturing capex underway; targeted completion in H2 FY27. Formulations (FDF): Fastest-growing segment • Nor-UDCA: Launched in Q3 with strong physician response and a firm order book for Q4. Europe and U.S. expansion planned. • Transdermal patch: EMA approval received for rotigotine; U.S. filing expected in Q4 FY26 with a potential FY27 launch. • Complex injectables: Long-acting ondansetron injection Phase 3 completed; India launch expected in H1 FY27. Biologics & Biosimilars • Aflibercept biosimilar (ophthalmology): Phase 3 on track for H1 FY27 submission. • Albumin: Global clinical trial protocol approved; Europe filing targeted in Q4 FY26. This is a multi-billion-dollar global market opportunity. 5) Listen to the market All of us carry biases. Sometimes in the name of “valuations,” sometimes in the name of “tailwinds,” we get attached to a few stocks, and social media storytelling only strengthens that attachment. Even if capital stays stuck there for a year with no returns, we manage to justify it. If 2 out of a 12-stock portfolio fall into that category, it’s manageable. But if 6 out of 12 are there, portfolio returns will almost certainly suffer. The reality is: the market is usually telling you something. If a stock keeps getting ignored or keeps correcting, there is often a reason, even if it isn’t immediately visible to us. Look at the price action in names like JM Financial, Ashapura Minechem, Timex Group, and Sanghvi Movers. Each had a convincing story at one point, and many of those stories were genuine. Yet price action changed much earlier than the narrative. We also carry the opposite bias - assuming expensive stocks are automatically dangerous. To a large extent that’s true, valuation discipline matters. But blindly ignoring high-valuation companies can be equally costly. Stocks like GE Vernova T&D India, Navin Fluorine, TD Power, MTAR Technologies, and Aether Industries don’t get premium multiples because they are “favorite children.” The market is pricing in a strong rate of change in earnings and opportunity over the next few years. And of course, when that rate of change slows, valuation corrects quickly, as seen in Kaynes Technology. The takeaway - Keep an open mind. Don’t marry a narrative. Don’t reject a stock only because it looks expensive. Very often, price action is the earliest information available to us, so sometimes the best thing to do is simply listen to the market. 6) Rishabh Instruments I presented Rishabh Instruments at ALD event when the stock price was in the ₹200s. My conviction was based largely on management’s stated target of ~₹100 Cr EBITDA for FY26. Now, looking at 9M FY26, EBITDA has already crossed ~₹93 Cr, a clear sign the management is walking the talk on restoring profitability. This improvement wasn’t accidental. It also involved consciously cutting low-margin/non-profitable revenues, especially from Lumel Alucast (automotive segment). While Electrical & Electronic Instrumentation remains the primary growth driver, the company has finally sounded positive on its solar business. After a long period of losses, the segment has turned operating-level profitable and the company has secured fresh orders for its single-phase inverter models. FY27 could become an important year for this vertical. However, profitability recovery is only step one. The bigger trigger will be growth. Currently the growth engine is still running a bit slow, the day revenue growth starts sustaining ~20–25%, the probability of a re-rating increases meaningfully. Management teams that go through tough conditions and fix their business models deserve attention. Execution during adversity often tells you more than execution during tailwinds. 7) Trade deals, economic growth & equities Since 2025, India has signed multiple trade agreements, with the UK, Oman, New Zealand, and Australia (zero-duty access from Jan 2026 already on the table), even before the mother of all deals with the EU entered the picture. Once details of the EU agreement emerged, including tariff reductions in some categories from ~110% to ~20% over a five-year window, it effectively triggered a FOMO moment for the US. That said, few expected how suddenly the US announcement would come. While the equity-market euphoria around the US deal lasted barely a day, the longer-term impact of these trade agreements should not be underestimated. These deals are likely to accelerate the build-out of a domestic manufacturing ecosystem, benefiting MSMEs and small companies the most. Over time, this should attract incremental foreign capital into Indian mid and small-cap equities. Even disciplined exposure via quality small-cap funds could do well over the next 2–3 years. Valuations today are broadly around long-term averages. That doesn’t rule out further downside, but with the US deal nearly in place and the EU agreement likely to be legally concluded over the next 2–3 quarters, the outlook for Indian manufacturing over the next 3–4 years looks encouraging. I don’t know how much more downside the market may see, or when the next bull phase will begin. But over a 3–4 year horizon, equities should still create meaningful wealth. That’s why this environment looks well-suited for SIP-based investing. However, just because major FTAs are broadly agreed (with the legal text still pending) doesn’t mean everything is hunky-dory. The EU deal is still 3–4 quarters away from becoming legally binding, and Trump could change his mind and rattle markets anytime on the US deal. Be optimistic, but cautiously so! That said, remember, trade agreements don’t move markets for a day, they reshape economies over years. 8) GNG Electronics - Unlikely tailwinds! GNG Electronics posted bumper numbers and gave extremely bullish commentary. Apparently, rapid AI adoption and supply constraints in new hardware are pushing up component costs and limiting new PC availability, driving a structural shift toward refurbished enterprise-grade devices and GNG obviously is in the middle of it! The company has now revised its revenue guidance from approximately ~25% to a range of 28% to 30% year-on-year. Likewise, the company now expects a 150 to 200 basis points improvement in margins for the full year! Management expects the high memory price environment to persist until at least the end of 2027, as building new production capacities takes time. This provides a long-term structural tailwind for the refurbished PC industry. Memory stocks have rallied strongly in recent months, and few would have expected GNG to be a beneficiary too. Of course, we should remember that supply-side constraints often create short-term opportunities; they may not last forever… but sometimes they last longer than we expect. 9) Eli Lilly - 2026 in Full Bloom Eli Lilly expects roughly ~25% revenue growth in 2026, driven by “industry-leading” volume expansion from its incretin franchise, Mounjaro and Zepbound. While volumes are surging, management also indicated a low-to-mid-teens drag from pricing, reflecting rebates and broader insurance coverage. 2026 could also be a defining year for Orforglipron, Lilly’s investigational oral weight-loss pill, with a targeted U.S. launch around Q2 2026 (subject to FDA approval). In contrast, Novo Nordisk projected a 5%–13% revenue decline due to pricing pressures and competition. Lilly has also reached an agreement with the U.S. government to expand access to obesity therapies, potentially enabling millions of Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries to receive treatment starting July 1, 2026, with out-of-pocket costs capped near $50 per month. Most importantly, the company continues its aggressive manufacturing expansion, committing over $55 billion since 2020, to address earlier supply shortages. For investors tracking Indian CDMO and peptide-linked companies, that is the key point: demand is no longer the bottleneck; manufacturing capacity is. There’s a saying that India risks becoming obese before it becomes rich. Whether literal or not, one thing seems clear, the GLP-1/obesity therapy story is only beginning, and the next few years could be transformative for the global pharma supply chain. 10) Sakar Health - The up and coming CMO and Oncology hero Sakar Health post fantastic results in Q3FY26 and concall is coming up on Feb 11th. Founded in 2004, Sakar has evolved from a small contract manufacturer into an API-integrated pharmaceutical company with a growing global presence. The company now operates WHO-GMP and EU-GMP approved facilities in Gujarat, exports to 60+ countries, and has built a portfolio of ~292 product registrations across 75 international partners. They operate in three verticals: 1. CDMO / CMO Services, 2. Own Brand Exports, 3. Licensing / Product Development. For most of its history Sakar was primarily a generic formulations exporter, but in the last few years it has pivoted meaningfully toward oncology, and that is increasingly becoming the real story. The company has set up a vertically integrated oncology facility with EU-GMP approval. Its oncology portfolio includes 55 in-house developed products, of which 32 are ready for global launch. It has already secured 11 Marketing Authorisations (MAs) across geographies (six in Europe and the balance across APAC and Latin America). On the CDMO/CMO side, Sakar manufactures for established Indian pharma companies such as Zydus Life Sciences, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Indus Pharma, Emcure, Cipla and Glenmark, with ~20 active clients. Going forward, while their generic formulations unit would continue to grow steadily (primarily in export markets), the two growth engines will be the CMO for these big Indian MNCs and Oncology portfolio. If execution sustains, Sakar appears to be transitioning from a plain export-generic company into a specialty manufacturing + oncology platform, which is a very different valuation narrative. That's all for today, see you next Sunday!

I'll don't know how things work here but I'll figure it out is the life changing attitude 🔥

I’m a $PYPL investor, but my experience as a customer has been a nightmare. Tried the new India money transfer feature: ❌ Verification stuck for 4+ days. ❌ Funds deducted via bank transfer on the 26th but still "Processing." ❌ Support says they can't cancel or help. Terrible UX & support compared to competitors. I won't be using it again 🔴 @PayPal @AskPayPal @acce please process my refund.

@vijayshekhar In many European countries the QR is already integrated, similar to our UPI. In Portugal it's called MB way, in Poland it's called Blick etc. different European countries have their different systems.

Make it QR & all mobile users to scan QR. Simple and cost effective. Come to India to experience.

Hey $PYPL, Recently, I've transferred some money to India using the bank deposit. According to @PayPal the money should be deposited by 26th December. The money is not deposited so far and so I wrote a email to customer service but no luck so far. Please share what's the current status of my transaction. PayPal is really a painpal 😌

The bubble is not pooping anytime soon! 😅

@Tushar02606494 @thechartist26 I prefer motilal.

@Subhajit__Roy @thechartist26 In Motilal Oswal microcap index fund? Or we have other options?

I always buy indices in panic Nasdaq in Sep 2022 China near lows And now eyeing Micro-cap index I will continue to do the same forever for investing part Bought Microcap 250 via Motilal Oswal NFO first day itself

@Tushar02606494 @thechartist26 Since it's microcap so PE ratio will be highly volatile there so I prefer P/B over there. I stated accumulation once it's falls below 3 years average and stop my sip once it's reach the average. Simple strategy but worked every time.

@Subhajit__Roy @thechartist26 How you are planning to invest motilal Oswal microcap index fund??

Majority of the people chase good historical returns because of their bias. After 2022 crash no one wanted to invest into US stocks and all around the corner there was story of dollar losing it's strength. Afterwards we all know what happened with US market for next 2 years. Similarly, this is great time to accumulate Indian equities. Personally I prefer Indian market to be flat for another full year so that weaker mind can leave the market.

What are some of the common trends you’re noticing in investing right now? 1. Many investors are increasingly looking to invest globally for diversification, especially in markets like the US & China 2. Increasing allocation in Precious metals Much of this appears to be influenced by recency bias, as both global equities & precious metals have delivered strong returns Do you notice the same trends as well?

@gurjota Majority of them pretend to be westernized because of their imaginary social status.

I guess we are getting completely westernized. I see more people taking a break from work for Christmas and New Year than for Diwali. And a much longer break versus the 3-4 day break for Diwali. Nothing wrong with it, just an observation.

@shiladitya4u $NVO is the best player with valuation comfort to play glp 1 cycle. Recently they got approval of their weight loss pill. Unfortunately, none of the Indian companies are direct beneficiary.

I am not an expert on the pharma sector or GLP-1. However, GLP-1 trend is a worldwide phenomenon, something similar to internet in 2000 and AI in 2025. Unfortunately, not too many options in India to play this theme

@EventuallyWLTHY $Hims need to launch new new products and scale them efficiently like they did for glp 1. They should diversify beyond the glp 1 and their progress needs to be tracked closely to become a $NFLX of pharmaceutical.

As a $HIMS bull, I’m not completely disregarding yesterday’s news of $NVO GLP-1 pill receiving FDA-approval. Like it or not, the rise of $HIMS in 2024 was largely fueled by their ability to provide GLP-1 alternatives during a major semaglutide supply shortage. Bulls might’ve stuck around for the attractive long-term potential of the platform, but the only reason the entire market started looking into $HIMS is because they appeared to be the biggest beneficiary of the semaglutide shortage. The moment they confirmed that they'd be expanding into GLP-1s on May 6th 2024, the stock climbed 5X+ over the next 10 months. Before the weight loss category even launched, the company was struggling to break away from the boner pill narrative. Compounded semaglutide acted as a beacon, forcing the market to see the big picture potential of the Hims platform. While some bears viewed this strictly through the lens of a weight loss fad/GLP-1 knockoffs/ copycat drug maker, long-term bulls discovered a company evolving into a new-age healthcare ecosystem. The street saw $HIMS as a GLP-1 play that would be worthless the second the semaglutide shortage ended, but majority of retail saw Hims as a healthcare disruptor that is on a clear path to becoming the $NFLX of healthcare over the next 5 years. Regardless of whether you’re bullish or bearish on $HIMS, the reality is that weight loss is what put the company on the map — this is made clear by their decision to market their entire Super Bowl ad toward their weight loss offerings. This $NVO pill won’t break the $HIMS business model, but it would be naive to think it won’t at least cause a sting. This is a huge milestone for the entire weight loss market. GLP-1s no longer come with a needle. Every GLP-1 provider will now have to pivot — that includes $HIMS if they want to keep their weight loss offerings competitive. $HIMS expects their weight loss category to contribute $725M to a total expected revenue of $2.3B in 2025. That is nearly a third of their business. We’ve already seen revenue growth normalize as the semaglutide injectable shortage ended. Now that the originator of Ozempic is offering the same blockbuster drug in a convenient pill form, $HIMS faces a new challenge: convincing customers to choose a compounded injectable or a non-GLP-1 oral over an FDA-approved “Ozempic pill” from a trusted pharmaceutical giant. The strongest defense $HIMS currently has is price. $70/month for their oral treatments vs $150 for Novo’s pill, $HIMS remains the clear value leader. This affordability is central to their expansion into markets like Canada. However, the true long-term value of the weight loss segment isn’t just getting Canadians onto orals; it’s the customer acquisition. The goal is to bring users into the $HIMS ecosystem where they eventually explore other services. If a customer signs up for weight loss but stays for new-age, tech-driven health experience, the platform wins. My 2030 price target for Hims is $140 Now more than ever, $HIMS needs to continue to execute and diversify. It'll be harder to attract new weight loss users now that a needle-free, “name brand” alternative exists. I expect to see a shift in focus in 2026 where $HIMS leans heavily into diagnostic labs to cross-sell weight loss more naturally based on health data vs simply running ads on their orals, like they did with their injections. More importantly, the company needs to double down on the other two-thirds of its revenue by focusing on proprietary drug development, cornering the emerging peptides market, and expanding its footprint in hormone therapy. Overall, I’m still a $HIMS bull and shareholder, but I’m keeping a close eye on how they navigate this new pressure in the weight loss market.

$NVO is up by 10% 🟢 on this update!

Couldn't agree more on this. Instagram or any short term video platform is cooking people brain.

Paypal = Painpal 😭 Recently I transferred some money to India (via UPI) using @PayPal I've submitted the documents required for this transfer but still my transaction is not processed yet (the app is saying they need less than 24 H to verify the documents). It's been more than 24h and it is not processed yet. Looks like they need a decade to verify my documents 🥲 As a $PYPL investor, I'm highly disappointed with this service.

Everyone should invest into stocks. You should make a portfolio of companies that you believe will great in future. Next phase of growth will come from emerging economies like India, Brazil and aslo from the US Tech companies 🔥

@JuanRodrig07 @Iam_rouble my experience while sending money to Indian upi is depressing. So far I've tried multiple times and every time it was showing me a error.

$PYPL PayPal World is almost here. Post from Naveen Babu (Software engineer working leading PayPal World’s India UPI integration) Thanks @Iam_rouble for sharing!