@Mar49931H @KobeissiLetter If Iran controls the Strait, then Chinese vessels may be unaffected. However, the panda is possibly smiling in the hope that the end of empire arrives sooner rather than later, with minimal effort.
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Sugar Market News
51.4K posts
Sugar Market News
@SugarAlerts
International sugar news and analysis, ethanol, agriculture and the environment. Physicals, futures, options, stocks and ETFs. Commodities | Biofuels | Trading
London, England (UK) Katılım Ekim 2013
1.6K Takip Edilen8K Takipçiler
@SugarAlerts @KobeissiLetter The Chinese loose the 2 mains sources of oil, Iran and Venezuela, very strange , why is the Panda smiling???
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BREAKING: US stock market futures fall at the open as President Trump declares Tuesday as “Power Plant and Bridge Day" in Iran:
1. S&P 500: -0.7%
2. Nasdaq 100: -0.8%
3. Dow Jones: -0.7%
4. WTI Crude: +3.0%
5. Natural Gas: +1.0%
6. Gold: -0.9%
President Trump's deadline is now 50 hours away.
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Amid Indian ethanol industry lobbying for a higher blending beyond 20 per cent, a global agency has said that any hike from E20 level will require India to ban sugar export, potentially helping the government to control domestic prices.
trib.al/hpPOfLo
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Be prepared, there is a small chance that our horrendous leadership could unknowingly lead us into World War III.
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Last week, we highlighted #sugar as a commodity that could benefit from second round effects of the Middle East crisis given its link to surging fuel costs through its ethanol link. The sweetener has been in a sustained downtrend since peaking above 28 cents/lb in 2023, during which prices have halved on the back of a global surplus that drove heavy fund selling.
The managed money short position hit a record 248k contracts ≈ 12.6 million tons just ahead of the Middle East conflict. The latest COT update, covering the week to 24 March - during which #SB_f rallied 10% - illustrates how wrong-footed short sellers were forced to cover aggressively, thereby adding fuel to the rally. This triggered a record 128k contracts of net buying, reducing the overall net short to 77k contracts.
Ole S Hansen@Ole_S_Hansen
Secondary impacts: Brazil, the world's largest #sugar producer and exporter, is expected to cut shipments in the 2026/27 season that starts in April by 14.2% as mills divert sugarcane to make ethanol due to high energy prices, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday. Source: Reuters
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
It’s official.
Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level.
I expect this move to accelerate from here.
When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup.
Be mindful of the social and political consequences of rising food prices.
My latest macro presentation:
tavicosta.substack.com/p/opportunity-…
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Sugar just saw RECORD hedge fund inflows. 🍬 Crude Oil is pulling capital into agriculture markets — and the flow data shows it. Eight straight weeks of fund buying in #ags. The money flow is real. 📈 #AgMarkets #Sugar #COT
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Secondary impacts:
Brazil, the world's largest #sugar producer and exporter, is expected to cut shipments in the 2026/27 season that starts in April by 14.2% as mills divert sugarcane to make ethanol due to high energy prices, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday.
Source: Reuters
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
🇺🇸 Trump just approved emergency sales of cheaper E-15 fuel and wants it available all year.
It’s gas with 15% ethanol… cheaper to use, reduces oil imports, and helps farmers.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇷🇺🇪🇺 Russia eyeing a gasoline export ban for producers starting April 1? Authorities are actively discussing reinstating it; no final decision yet, but focused on gasoline only (not diesel). If that happens... It's gonna be a kick in Europe's balls, as they're already struggling from the closure of Strait of Hormuz Europe is sooooo screwed this year Source: @zerohedge
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
The US, the biggest gasoline market on Earth, just increased by 50% its ethanol blending limit. India is also considering to raise it from 20% to 30%.
And you are short sugar because your Excel-spreadsheet analyst thinks the Brazilian sugarcane crop is half-decent ? ;)
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___
The most underpriced commodity right now might be sugar, and that is because Brazilian ethanol is the solver of the global gasoline market shortage. Here's the Brazil gasoline arbitrage nobody is talking about. 1/ Brazil is a net importer of 150'000 barrels per day of gasoline and blending components (light ends). A massive, structural deficit for the world's largest ethanol producer. That gasoline import is about 9 million tonnes per year of sugar-equivalent ethanol sitting one government price decision away from being diverted. Brazil is also a net importer of 300 kbd of diesel for farm and trucking, and boatloats of nitrogen fertilizers, but that is story for another day. 2/ Why? Because Brazilian domestic gasoline prices are currently at ~60% of international levels. Petrobras imports at world prices, sells cheap. The government eats the subsidy. 3/ This matters enormously for the sugar/ethanol split. Brazil's flex-fuel fleet prices ethanol at pump parity — i.e. ~70-75% of gasoline. If gasoline is at 60% of world prices, domestic ethanol is worth ~42-45% of international gasoline equivalent. 4/ Now stress-test with Hormuz. A sustained closure creates a persisting global gasoline price spike. Petrobras faces an existential fiscal hole importing at high prices and selling at 60% of it. This is called the defasagem or subsidy gap. The government eventually capitulates — they always do, they just lag. Meanwhile, the BRL devalues because it hurts the fiscal situation, balooning the import bill. Eventually Petrobras aligns gasoline prices to international levels, ethanol then rallies. Until then, Brazilian ethanol and subsidized gasoline gets exported in increasing quantities, through official channels but also the porous Paraguay border. 5/ When domestic gasoline normalises toward world prices, the math inverts overnight. Pump parity makes domestic ethanol suddenly valuable. Mills flip the cane mix lever toward ethanol. Sugar export volumes collapses at the precise moment demand from the middle east is catching up post Ramadan 6/ Turning raw sugar into white sugar requires refineries (Etihad in Iraq is getting sugar through Hormoz, but waiting to see what Al Khaleej and that Saudi "doctor" gets), polypropylene bags (scarce and more expensive) and natural gas (scarce and more expensive) and diesel trucking (scarce and more expensive). You also know what I think about the white sugar premium over raws. 7/ The kickers: we are entering Brazil's pre-harvest window and it has been raining so harvesting pace is slow and crushing favors ethanol. Funds are net short sugar and the momentum has already reverted with upside asymetry. A demand shock into an inelastic supply = price spike. I think this year it will rain Reals on the Brazilian cane industry, and by the look of it, some players can immensely benefit. Party time. youtube.com/watch?v=CCF1_j… Disclaimer : I am rather obviously long sugar and brazilian sugar equities.
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Look closely at how the numbers connect across each side. There’s a simple math rule hiding in plain sight.
#iequiz #mathpuzzle #logicchallenge #brainteaser #thinksmart
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
The UK government temporarily restarted an ethanol plant over concerns that the Iran war will cause a shortage of carbon dioxide, a byproduct used widely in food production and healthcare. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@BullsvsBearMan @business War related (shipping, energy prices, ethanol-sugar nexus etc)
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@SugarAlerts @business I’d say for quite a while neither
Get long $CANE $SOYB $WEAT $CORN
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
The European Commission is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for “at least a year” to help stabilize prices within the bloc bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@business @SugarAlerts Sugar $CANE is going so much higher!
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Raw sugar headed for a fourth weekly gain, buoyed by a rally in crude oil, with traders watching to see if top grower Brazil will boost domestic gasoline prices bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Sugar Market News retweetledi
Integrated sugar mills are likely to see moderate revenue growth of 5-8% in FY26, driven by improved sugarcane availability and stable sugar prices, a report said on Friday (March 13, 2026).
trib.al/hiG2kAC
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@tx_marcelo Good movie, worth watching. The opening scene is of sugarcane fields (alongside something less pleasant at a petrol station). 🙂
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