@Apple has taken “filling the shelf space” to a ridiculous level. Multiple lookalike products with small differences that don’t do much different or new. What happens when innovation runs into commercialization.
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Summit Global Strategies
10.9K posts
Summit Global Strategies
@SummitGlobal1
Optimistic capitalist. Understanding what’s important. Explaining it. Fixing it.
Washington, DC Katılım Ekim 2017
481 Takip Edilen482 Takipçiler
After 5 years of inflation above target, the Fed still hasn’t gotten its job done. story via @greg_ip
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
A Fed rate increase, once unthinkable, has become thinkable thanks to stubborn inflation, Iran and a resilient economy, @greg_ip writes on.wsj.com/47TUOq3
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Andrea Tosato@Andrea_Tosato
Thrilled to share my latest paper with @ChrisOdinet and @ProfYYadav1: The Moneyness of Stablecoins (forthcoming @YaleLJournal) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… What makes something money? Are stablecoins money? Are they good money? We try to answer these questions 🧵
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With all the handwringing about “gutting” bank capital requirements, I found myself asking: ‘compared to what’? And here’s what I found: instead of very high, maybe now just quite high.
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If I wanted to explain inflation in one chart, this would be it. via @ernietedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi
I basically agree. There are genuine anxiety closets in the labor market worth monitoring but the tenaciousness of wage growth & core services inflation suggest its state is still one of net heat overall. Modeling from the @KansasCityFed estimates we're still a bit below NAIRU.
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There's a long tradition of leveraging the Nobel Laureate title to weigh in on topics for which the award was not granted. Here's one more. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@ctorresreporter When does de facto become de jure?
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The story it seems to me re today's Fed meeting:
Central bank hasn't been on its inflation target since 2018.
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Unexpected. Maybe. Predictable. Totally.
Edward Conard@EdwardConard
Reis compares the IMF’s 2019 forecasts of increases in the public debt over the next 5 years with the actual increases. In OECD countries where deficits turned out to be higher than the IMF expected, inflation also turned out to be unexpectedly higher. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
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Myth buster: “no evidence of the “K-shaped economy”.
Edward Conard@EdwardConard
Using internal Stripe payment data, Tedeschi finds that spending growth of households in low-income zip codes has outpaced that of households in high-income zip codes since 2023, thus showing no evidence of the “K-shaped economy” in the consumer sector. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
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Summit Global Strategies retweetledi
@NathanRamsey115 @ModeledBehavior @stripe The 50% figure has been thoroughly debunked at this point. It's 23% in 2024 using the Consumer Expenditure Survey. @BEA_News estimates it's 25.7% of personal consumption expenditures (the concept in GDP) as of 2023. @LevyAntoine has a good explainer here: x.com/LevyAntoine/st…
Antoine Levy@LevyAntoine
This graph has been floating around every couple months, arguing that the top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption. Anyone familiar with economic statistics should intuitively feel it must not be right. So I dug into it a bit, and indeed, it's (mostly) not.
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This is 100% completely unsustainable as a society.
Nearly 50% of all consumer spending now comes from the top 10% of earners.
The bottom 80%?
Their share keeps falling.
This is why the economy can look strong in the data while millions of people feel like they're falling behind.
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The Phillips curve was stable during the inflation surge, and it predicted well the movements in inflation, with expectations playing a key role in those predictions.
Ricardo Reis@R2Rsquared
Is the Phillips curve useful to make sense of inflation? A.W.H. Phillips first postulated a negative empirical correlation between inflation and the level of economic activity. Looking at inflation in 2021-24---up and down---versus measures of unemployment---roughly unchanged---shows little correlation. Has the Phillips curve failed, yet again? No, it did not. Friedman and Phelps, almost 50 years ago, clarified that this correlation should only hold keeping expected inflation fixed. Almost every account of how firms choose prices or bargain wages with their workers predicts that expectations would show up in a Philips curve. Moreover, those models of behavior further add that increases in marginal costs (supply shocks) would further shift out this relation. The empirical Phillips curve has for many decades meant a negative relation between inflation and real activity, controlling for expected inflation and supply shocks. The left figure below shows on the vertical axis inflation, after controlling for expected inflation---mean and disagreement from a household survey---and for supply shocks---gas prices and global supply pressures. The horizontal axis shows a measure of slack in the labor market---the log of the ratio of unemployment to job vacancies. The Phillips curve held nicely and steadily throughout. A criticism of that figure is that its is looking in the rear view mirror: the measure of supply shocks and the measure of slack were developed in the last few years and the data has been revised. The right figure does instead an out-of sample exercise. Estimate a regression of inflation on (i) expected inflation, (ii) the difference between the unemployment rate and the CBO estimate of its non-cyclical component, and (iii) the PCE energy price index. Do it on data pre-pandemic: 1984Q1-2020Q1. Using that estimated equation, predict inflation in real time from then onwards using the data releases available at the time of the forecast. The Phillips curve was a pretty good predictor of inflation throughout. The Phillips curve was stable during the inflation surge, and it predicted well the movements in inflation, with expectations playing a key role in those predictions. Notes: it is important to include the right measure of expectations to understand inflation-activity dynamics at a business-cycle frequency: the short-horizon expectations of households and firms. (For instance, the long-horizon expectations from professionals, or the expectations from models in policy institutions, as in my previous two posts, are the wrong measure.) Sources: (i) Section 3 in Reis "Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021-24? Channels and Evidence from Expectations" (ii) The simple exercise on the left figure is inspired on the analysis of Bernanke and Blanchard “What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?” (iii) The simple exercise on the right figure is inspired on @jadhazell "Comment" in the NBER macro annual 2025, which in turn built on Beaudry, Hou, and Portier "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"
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Increases in minimum wages raise the likelihood of robot adoption.🤖wapo.st/4dnVXtE
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A third option is inflation, which is of course already in the works and looking more likely to persist based on the latest proposals.
Megan McArdle@asymmetricinfo
I've been saying for years that GOP and Dems were in a game of chicken where the everyone runs up deficits and the object is to structure current taxes/spending so the other side's priorities absorb most of the burden of adjustment. I now think I was wrong.
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@fintechfrank Makes sense—they also pay about 3/4 of the income tax.
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Top 10% of earners make up nearly 50% of all consumer spending
source: FT
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@Aarondklein Banks: Can’t do capitalism without them. Can’t do it with them. And we’re about to test both.
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Industries come and go. Banks live forever
Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick
Great reminder from @SamRo in a recent note that times change, but so do market composition. Railroads made up most of the US market in 1900, now it is a rounding error. In fact, 80% of the 1900 market is small or outright extinct today.
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The longer the camel back goes without breaking, the more straws get put on the camel’s back. aka when economic resilience meets moral hazard. axios.com/2026/03/15/ira… via @Neil_Irwin
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Summit Global Strategies retweetledi
The broad-based campaign to tax wealth, assets, and appreciation in those is not about improving public finances.
It's about pursuing an ideological vision that prefers people to be equally poor rather than unequally rich.
Joshua Rauh@joshrauh
Let this sink in. California wealth tax architect Saez admits it here: he would let 80% of billionaires leave CA, liquidating Silicon Valley and its jobs, for an extra $2 billion per year in revenues. This is in a state that spends $325 billion per year, up by 68% since 2019.
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I don't think people understand just how MASSIVE the Clarity Act is going to be for Crypto...
CFTC Chair Mike Selig confirmed that under the CLARITY Act, the CFTC would have "broad authority over crypto spot markets."
This is something the industry has been lobbying for for years - because it’s the framework that allows crypto to scale like a real asset class.
Why it matters:
• Bitcoin and digital assets treated as the commodities they are
• Oversight shifts from the SEC’s enforcement-heavy approach to the CFTC’s commodity market framework
• Clear rules for spot trading, exchange registration, and market surveillance
And most importantly:
It unlocks institutional capital.
Banks, asset managers, custodians, and traditional funds have been waiting for exactly this kind of clarity.
Commodity-style regulation is familiar to them - the same framework used for gold, oil, and other global markets.
Both the SEC and CFTC said they’re prepared to implement quickly, meaning this doesn’t require a multi-year rollout.
For crypto markets, this is the fastest path to becoming a fully institutional asset class.
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