Austin Swanson

$CVNA: Dissecting the Gotham Short Report A detailed review of Gotham's principal claims on DriveTime's results and leverage, Carvana's gain on loan sales and servicing fees, SilverRock's margins, and related-party transactions. Free to Read: swany407.substack.com/p/cvna-gotham

$CVNA vs $KMX 4Q25 (+1Q26 CVNA Unit & Growth Estimates) Analysis of Carvana's and CarMax's units and economics over time, through their latest earnings, as well as updated 1Q26 CVNA unit and growth estimates for comparison to KMX's results tomorrow.

$CDLX Report 4.12.2026: Further changes with Wells Fargo, new CDLX hires, new and returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$HGV $VAC $TNL: Buybacks and Dividends Updated analysis on past, current, and future capital returns to shareholders.

$CDLX Report 4.5.2026: Changes to start 2Q26 (related to Wells Fargo, total offers, and advertisers), new and returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CDLX Report 3.29.2026: Completion of the sale of Bridg to PAR, returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CDLX Report 3.22.2026: Returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CDLX Report 3.15.2026: PAR’s VWAP for the Bridg deal, new advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CDLX Report 3.8.2026: 4Q25 earnings notes and thoughts (results, guidance, sequential growth vs Chase restrictions, new partners, UK growth, use of AI, updates on tech debt and product-level offers). +New and returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CVNA: 4Q25 Post-Earnings Analysis Focuses on the latest QoQ and YoY changes, with visuals / metrics / summaries not readily available elsewhere.

@Mongndduri I did previously offer that for quite a while, partnering with Clarity Markets. It wasn’t too popular though. Most continued to sub through substack. So given that + the extra work involved, I switched to focusing on substack.

@Swany407 Austin, Thanks for all the great content. Guessing others have suggested this, but what about a Cardlytics-only subscription plan???

$CDLX Report 3.1.2026: New and returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CDLX Report 2.22.2026: Multiple new advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$CDLX Report 2.15.2026: Updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

$tpl $goog $lb $cvx Permian Basin data center thesis getting a lot closer to being realized. If this happens, it will likely be powered by the Chevron Reeves County power gen project.

@Finnbarian @IndraStocks Looks like the APR for 2025-P1 was 14.06% (12.8% was for 2025-P2). Also believe 2025-P1 WAC was higher. Together you get to the 8.33% excess spread.

@IndraStocks @GothamResearch @RealJimChanos Looking at $CVNA gross excess spread: APR 12.8% -4.1 WAC %-1% service fee = 7.7% which is far (0.63%) off their 8.33% prospectus stated gross excess spread. Applying $ALLY .1% differential to the $CVNA and it's still .53% lower than the prospectus.

Thread covering the @GothamResearch report on $CVNA: 1. To start, I do not trust short reports where the crux of the thesis is disingenuous rhetoric and not meaningful analysis. "We believe the two largest drivers of CVNA earnings -related party income and Gain on Loan sales - are larger, and more dependent on DriveTime & the Garcia ecosystem, than previously disclosed." - GCR This misrepresentation is a common theme in short reports covering CVNA. At the end of the day, they sell cars. While related party income and Gain on Loan sales are a nice boon, they are not the primary driver of the company. Using 2024 as an example we can see that by far the biggest driver of CVNA results is their best in class retail gross profit. Second is of course financing, which is split somewhere around 50/50 between prime and subprime. Related party income is a minor component. Gotham additionally fails to mention this component is almost entirely vehicle service contracts. Carvana does not have retail repair shops, so they utilize an offering from a related party at healthy margins to both. Zeroing it would not be material impact longer term.

$CDLX Report 2.8.2026: Shift in recent trend with large and attractive advertisers (including within Chase from CDLX). Updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

@Axtiti x.com/_kablaa/status…

@Swany407 who is they?

$CVNA: Looks like they started to update their original post with corrections. Underwater at Origination ('21-'25): Before: 0% to 36%. Now: 37% to 39%. Average LTV at Origination ('21-'25): Before: 21% to 92%. Now: 93% to 94%. Updated Graphs:

@socraticcapital @_kablaa @FamilyOfficeBro @GothamResearch I created new graphs to have the same y-axis when comparing the old data to the new: x.com/Swany407/statu…

@_kablaa @Swany407 @FamilyOfficeBro @GothamResearch Nice y-axis buddy. Good work.

Just published my forensic short thesis on $CVNA: "Carvana – Subprime Auto in Prime Clothing" Stated-income loans everywhere, FICO illusion, LTVs exploding to 92% (36% underwater), extensions hiding delinquencies. Securitization flywheel at risk. Echoes some @GothamResearch concerns? Read: abeliananalysis.com/posts/carvana-…