3:10 Value

Friends, my recent article on produced water players $wbi and $ses.to is in the link below. Also covers, $lb, $wcn, and $gfl.

Bout to buy a midlife crisis car 😵

Showed my wife the wafer I bought for office decor. Thought it would go similarly to what the stock photo suggested but unfortunately, no.

@Mr_Neutral_Man One month on a GLP 1 and everyone thinks they’re Sharon Stone.

I'm at the coffee shop and saw TACO Tuesday trending and thought it was about Trump TACOing Clicked on it and first post was some housewive with her legs open Jesus F Christ!!!

$TIC Investor Day starting in a few minutes. ​The 3/18/85 targets just dropped ($3B+ revenue, 18% EBITDA, 85% FCF). It’s a solid headline, but the real value is in the next hours. ​I’m sitting in to see how they actually back those numbers up. Will be posting updates.

I told a guy at a barbecue last weekend that I had been buying busted small-cap software stocks at 4x free cash flow, and he looked at me with the specific facial expression of a man who has just realized he is trapped in a conversation with someone who voluntarily reads 10-Ks on vacation. He asked, with great gentleness, if I had considered Nvidia. I said I had considered Nvidia in the way one considers jumping off a bridge: briefly, theoretically, and with a clear understanding of the outcome. I told him I owned a company that sells dental practice management software to 11,000 orthodontists and that the CEO, a 64-year-old man named Greg who has not updated his LinkedIn since 2017, was, in my professional opinion, the single greatest capital allocator alive in North America today, and that I would, if legally permitted, have Greg’s name tattooed on my forearm. He asked if Greg knew this. I said Greg did not know I existed, and that this was the foundation of our relationship and the source of its strength. He excused himself to go check on his children, who, I observed, were not present at the barbecue. I stood by the grill alone for the next 40 minutes, eating directly from a bag of buns, thinking about Greg, who at that exact moment was, somewhere in suburban Indianapolis, almost certainly buying back stock at prices that will, in 2031, be regarded as the single greatest gift any small-cap CEO has ever given his shareholders, and the host’s wife came over and asked, with palpable concern, if I needed a ride home, and I said no, I needed nothing, I had Greg, and Greg was enough, and I have not been invited back to that house, and I do not care, because Greg loves me even though Greg does not know I am alive, and the math, as it has always been in every great deep value trade in history, is the only thing in this country that has not lied to me.

@chipperPat I’m sure others are looking too.

@310Value No need to worry about those guys

Looks like $che picked up an activist in Q1. How long until a letter drops?

@KaijuKingz94 Inductive reasoning.

@310Value How do we know those were Todd's picks?

The across the board selling of Todd’s stocks at Berkshire isn’t that surprising. PM’s had full discretion there, so picks weren’t “team” picks. The culture there is for PMs to know their companies inside and out. Greg and Ted probably want to start fresh as opposed to be forced to learn Todd’s companies. What is interesting is that it seems like every funds’ 13F had a large number of big changes in Q1.

@CuiBonoCapital @WaterworldCapi1 The fraternity house he dropped the nerd off of was my fraternity house in college.

@WaterworldCapi1 RIP btw

When factories began automating the assembly lines or farmers started using tractors and farm equipment, we didn't have mass unemployment. It increased productivity and freed people up to do other things that were more interesting.

Besties which kind of cardinal costume should i make for a medieval party

@sidecarcap @turtlefortytwo $uslm?

@turtlefortytwo Another holding does the same thing. It seems to take some of the anticipation and stress out of the process. And maybe reduces stock price volatility, but that’s just a hunch.

The way a company reports earnings is an important tell. Here is how my latest investment does it: •No advance notice of date •Matter-of-fact earnings release •No guidance •No conference call •Questions sent by email, answers posted on website A traditional investor may think this reflects a lack of transparency. I see something else: management focused on running the business, not managing Wall Street’s expectations. This says a lot about what is happening behind the curtain.

As far as revenue stream quality goes and revenue growth, I’d rank them. 1) $lb 2) $erok 3) $tpl. Long- term $lb probably positioned best with data centers but $tpl probably has earlier wins given $cvx power gen location and Bolt affiliation. $lb and $erok much cheaper than $tpl on an absolute basis but especially if you apply a market multiple times mineral royalties. $erok provides and a Central Basin pore space play. Wouldn’t be surprised if $lb and $erok end up together in the future.

@310Value Why hold EROK in addition to $TPL and $LB?

$erok EagleRock Jumps 24% After IPO. Investors Have a New Way to Play the Oil Boom. barrons.com/articles/eagle…

@AbdrazakAlmas No, but I like it too.

@310Value haven't done my research and hold a lot of $lb do you think erok is better risk reward ?

“Let a thousand flowers bloom.” A favorite quote of Murray Stahl (1953–2026)

@Philbert771 Mixed feelings as I own both. It's too cheap, but higher for the produced water assets than it appears. Understandable why Secure sold when they did, and it will be good for GFL going forward.

@310Value You are in favour of this buyout?

$gfl is going to crush it with $ses.to. Here's video by Secure's CEO recorded around the time that the acquisition was announced. youtube.com/watch?v=Ej-mpn…

@spanishprofit I think some of the weakness was driven by Secure shareholders selling to arbs, and arbs hedging out GFL shares. That should abate. Possibly close late summer.

@310Value When is the deal supposed to close? Expect $GFL weak until then?

Podcast #391 is up! Cruising through the $DRVN thesis with Kyle Mowery yetanothervalueblog.com/p/drvn-cruisin…