
Andrew Robert Francis
20.6K posts

Andrew Robert Francis
@T8NTraynor
karaoke populist






Each time Alberta has established an Electoral Boundaries Commission to redraw election maps the government has accepted the commission’s majority report, so I was surprised and disappointed to learn that a committee of MLAs has instead been tasked with creating a new map. /1










Interesting big-sample poll from Pollara that exposes an Alberta provincial race different than conventional wisdom. In AB, if you want to govern you need to win 2/3 regions: Calgary, Edmonton, other. UCP trails in Calgary and Edmonton while running up the score elsewhere. But running up the score - winning a riding by 50 instead of 15 - won’t get the UCP more seats. This is much better than the NDP’s 2023 result in Calgary. And in 2023, the Alberta NDP would have won with 6000 more Calgary votes in the right places. As long as there isn’t a gerrymandering of the electoral map to split communities between now and when we vote, these numbers would result in an Alberta NDP government. Thats where we are - and those are the stakes of the independent electoral boundary commission’s work.






But where that support lies could make a big difference in a hypothetical election... The UCP are getting routed in Edmonton, and the NDP are up by 6 points in Calgary. Unsurprisingly, the UCP largely own rural. /6













