Tropical Cyclone Outlooks

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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks

Tropical Cyclone Outlooks

@TCoutlooks

Long-Range TC Outlooks for the Southwest Pacific and Australia 📆 Updated monthly July-January 📍 Tweets by @drandrewmagee

Newcastle, New South Wales Katılım Şubat 2020
38 Takip Edilen87 Takipçiler
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
Following TCO-SP’s 1st season of operation, this study (i) outlines how TCO-SP outlooks are generated and communicated, (ii) provides a post-season validation of TCO-SP performance on the 2020/21 SWP TC season and (iii) reports on user-perceived usefulness. Check it out 🔽
Andrew Magee@DrAndrewMagee

Recently published in @ametsoc BAMS, we shine a light on the recent performance of @TCoutlooks and show it performed v.well for the 20/21 SWP TC season. We also asked our subscribers to evaluate its usefulness. See link below. @DLorrey @UON_research bit.ly/3G2alDx

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Island Climate Update
Island Climate Update@ICU_NIWA·
2021-22 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook — a normal to slightly above normal number of cyclones expected this season 💨 🌴 🌀 9 to 12 cyclones are predicted between November 2021-April 2022 💪 3+ cyclones may reach severe strength niwa.co.nz/climate/southw…
Island Climate Update tweet media
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
The 2021/22 Southwest Pacific TC season is fast approaching! Released today, TCO-SP is considered in the @ICU_NIWA TC outlook alongside NIWA analogue and international dynamical guidance, providing a consensus-based ensemble of TC risk. Check out the latest guidance below ⬇️
Island Climate Update@ICU_NIWA

2021-22 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook — a normal to slightly above normal number of cyclones expected this season 💨 🌴 🌀 9 to 12 cyclones are predicted between November 2021-April 2022 💪 3+ cyclones may reach severe strength niwa.co.nz/climate/southw…

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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
~6 weeks to go until the official start of the Aus/SP TC season! September TCO-SP and TCO-AU updates out today. Check ➡️ tcoutlook.com
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks retweetledi
Pacific Regional Climate Centre
Pacific Regional Climate Centre@pacific_rcc·
Cyclone season just over 2 months away? 🌀 Hard to believe! We're getting ready to discuss this and much more at the 9th Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum [#PICOF9] on 21-22 October. This year's sector focus is energy 🔋
Pacific Regional Climate Centre tweet media
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
July already! TCO-SP guidance now available for the 2021/22 Southwest Pacific TC season ➡️ bit.ly/2V6MDnO Below-normal TC activity expected for the basin: ▪️ Expected TC count = 9 TCs (7-11 TCs) ▪️ 85% chance of av. or below av. TCs (11 TCs or less)
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks tweet media
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
There's only a few more days left to have your say! Please let us know what you think of TCO-SP outlooks! Complete a short (5-min) questionnaire here: surveymonkey.com/r/2T5HFK3 Thank you! 👍
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks

🚨 Calling all TCO-SP users - have your say on shaping the future of TCO-SP! We want to explore end-user needs, understand how TCO-SP is being used and quantify user-perceived usefulness. If you can spare 5 mins, see the anonymised survey here: bit.ly/3bDaXDa - Thanks!

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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
🚨 Calling all TCO-SP users - have your say on shaping the future of TCO-SP! We want to explore end-user needs, understand how TCO-SP is being used and quantify user-perceived usefulness. If you can spare 5 mins, see the anonymised survey here: bit.ly/3bDaXDa - Thanks!
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
✅ Regional and island-scale guidance: for TCO-SP outlooks generated 4 months before the start of the season (July), observed TCs (Nov-Apr) fell within the expected range. Successful validation highlights the value of producing long-range, regionally-specific outlooks.
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks tweet media
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
Today (30th April) marks the last official day of the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season. Seasonal validation of TCO-SP performance shows that TCO-SP successfully predicted a normal to below-normal 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season. Check out the summary below ⬇️
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks tweet media
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks retweetledi
Pacific Regional Climate Centre
Pacific Regional Climate Centre@pacific_rcc·
The weather in the Southwest Pacific region has turned unsettled due to a pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts from your national meteorological service! twitter.com/ICU_NIWA/statu…
Island Climate Update@ICU_NIWA

The Southwest Pacific is currently active 🌀 Tropical #CycloneNiran formed near Queensland and is expected to strengthen as it moves toward New Caledonia this week. Heavy rain will also be possible in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Fiji in the coming days 💧

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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
JUST RELEASED: The January 2021 TCO-AU update for the remaining Feb-Apr 2021 Australian TC season is now live. This is the final update for the 2020/21 Australian TC season. In May 2021, we'll evaluate TCO-AU performance for 2020/21. Check it out here: tcoutlook.com/australia/
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks tweet media
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Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks@TCoutlooks·
This is the 7th and final TCO-SP update for the 2020/21 TC season. Evaluation of model performance will be shared once the season has wrapped-up.
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Keşfet

@ICU_NIWA @MetService @DLorrey @BenNollWeather @chrisnoble_nz @SciReports @DrAndrewMagee @chrisbrandolino