That was so hard to watch. Why make it so difficult🤷🏾♂️🤷🏾♂️ youtube.com/shorts/5uY4a44… via @YouTube
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Tim Duce
2.9K posts
@crowleymjp @afneil It rained today… because of Brexit. I lost my cat… because of Brexit. My Mum gave me a fiver… in spite of Brexit.
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@afneil So the UK’s relative growth performance has deteriorated since 2020…which is almost certainly due to Brexit…being now almost equally as sh1t as France is not a reason to laud Brexit
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So you are still, in effect, arguing that Brexit explains the Anglo-French yield spread. You’re wrong.
Between 2005-2015 average UK yields were up to 60 basis points higher than French, and that includes the Eurozone crisis period when French yields peaked above ours briefly. French yields tend to be lower because France is in the euro, which has massive market confidence (backed by the Bundesbank). But I don’t see you advocating UK joining that. Maybe you should.
Between 2015 and 2025 real GDP growth was higher in the UK than in France: 16–17% versus 12–13%.
Between 2020 to 2025, real GDP growth was also a bit higher in UK than France: around 5–6% versus France’s 4–5%.
So supposedly Brexit-induced slower UK growth doesn’t explain our higher yields either.
This is what does: We’ve suffered a moron premium ever since the ClusterTruss of 2022 and Reeves has done nothing to assuage it. The opposite in fact. In her two Budgets Reeves has increased taxes by £340bn (2024-29) and borrowed £260bn more (2024-29). An extra £600bn in tax and borrow. Now little scope to tax more, almost no scope to borrow more (except at penal rates). Hence our higher yields. Simples.
And, of course, political instability plays its part. But France barely has a government. Labour won 2024 in a landslide, with a massive majority, surely a harbinger of political stability. The fact it’s thrown it all away in under two years contributes to our continued moron premium. That’s Labour’s fault, not Brexit (which can rightly be blamed for many things but, no, not higher yields). You simply don’t have the evidence.
Ben Judah@b_judah
Happy to go through this again @afneil. Let’s look at the wider data not just a few numbers plucked out of their context. Yields are mostly but not exclusively reflections of political stability, inflation and growth trajectory. We can see that at peaks of the Eurozone debt, when France was seen as on a bad trajectory, French yields spiked over the UK only to recover. These reflect, to a great degree, underlying fundamentals which were pre-2020 more favourable to the UK. What happened after 2020 when the UK left the Single Market is our pre-existing gap with France worsened against the background of a general spike linked to the pandemic and Ukraine. This increased gap reflects to a large degree Brexit induced political instability, Brexit-worsened inflation and Brexit-lowered growth trajectory. All these are highly documented and have of course influenced bond trader decisions. We can also see the Truss mini-Budget there clearly making things worse. Of course, the graph clearly shows the UK-France gap has not been a constant mathematical match to pre-Single Market exit trends as you appear to suggest. My argument is had the UK remained in the EU with a stronger growth trajectory the UK-France gap would have narrowed not grown in recent years as it did in the past reflecting stronger growth, greater stability and lower inflation inside the Single Market saving billions. I don’t see what’s confusing here. But I can see why it’s politically important to many on the Right that no longer puts growth first to deny this!
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Who's the topper here?
Let's solve this if you've top IQ level!
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Check out this TikTok I found! ▶️Watch the full video now! vm.tiktok.com/ZNRt7nhcA/
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@Kiwiarnagurl @JohnRushforth1 @GBNEWS @beverleyturner “A PM’s job is to govern Britain” into the ground? He is the worst PM in UK history. You are defending him while the rest of the country disagrees with you. It seems we know something you don’t know or don’t want to know.
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@JohnRushforth1 @GBNEWS @beverleyturner Except Starmer is not governing the UK is he?
Hes letting it slide into a cesspool of Islam, Pakistani rape gangs, no free speech and letting men into womens prisons, and thats just the tip of the iceberg.
The man is the most disgusting PM ever
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‘JD Vance did the speech that a lot of our viewers would’ve liked to have heard from our Prime Minister!’
@beverleyturner brings an update live from Washington D.C., following JD Vance’s press conference, in which the Vice-President discussed the Unite the Kingdom rally.
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Test Your IQ With This Amazing Puzzle Designed for Genius Mind!
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@JonathanNS1685 @Tony_Diver “jobs that are reliant on frictionless trade with our largest trading partner”.
Name one.
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@Tony_Diver What about the jobs that are reliant on frictionless trade with our largest trading partner? Not to mention regional aid that assisted these communities (& which haven’t been fully replicated by Central Government). How has leaving the EU helped Red Wall areas?
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EXC: Sir Keir Starmer’s team has privately sounded out senior Labour figures, including local government leaders in Red Wall areas, about the prospect of rejoining the EU.
The idea has not gone down well. One source says it would be a “catastrophe”.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/…
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@MichelleFattoru @Tony_Diver How are these polls conducted? A new one out this week found 98% wanting to stay out.
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@Tony_Diver Guessing it’s gone down extremely well in other areas though, otherwise there wouldn’t be a majority in this country wanting to Rejoin 🇪🇺 but hey, the Telegraph doesn’t want to mention that particular aspect of the conversation!
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Truly “sickening” Ed. Look at the hate in their eyes. I’m still shivering. 😱
Ed Davey@EdwardJDavey
Though smaller than last year, the Unite the Kingdom march over the weekend was still sickening. The resurgence of out-and-out racism in the UK, from demands for remigration of British Asians to Antisemitic slurs on placards at both demonstrations, demands we meet this moment.
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@EdwardJDavey C’mon, Ed. You’ve never met anyone from the ‘Far Right’. Your blather is a perfect example of VRANYO, a word from the Soviet era. It means: You’re lying. We know you are lying. You know we know you are lying but you do it anyway because you can.
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Though smaller than last year, the Unite the Kingdom march over the weekend was still sickening. The resurgence of out-and-out racism in the UK, from demands for remigration of British Asians to Antisemitic slurs on placards at both demonstrations, demands we meet this moment.
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@Rod__Mason These guys aren’t into DEI?
No that’s OK because there’s is a different culture and, of course, all cultures are equal 🙄
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There are no female council members?
HJB News@HJB_News__
English council members lunch. What happened to all the diversity in the UK?
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@EuroBriefing There is no ‘deal’.
When the EU Commissioners do condescend to negotiate, it takes years because all the member states have different industries with different concerns. Most countries sign a trade deal within two years. It took the EU FOURTEEN YEARS to close a deal with India.
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The Rejoin debate in the UK started where Remain left off, with a narrow focus that fails to go beyond disputable transactional value. For me, a good metric of the distance the UK is away from EU membership is number of references to “the deal” politicians hope to extract from the EU. Every EU member state has its exemptions and quirks, but there is nobody who talks about EU membership in terms of a "deal". The framing is all wrong. This isn’t about the deal you get, but what you can bring to the table. My overall sense about Rejoin is that they don’t know what they want to rejoin.
More on this issue, and also on the limits of regulatory alignment in the AI sector: eurointelligence.com
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