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Whew I went wrong this crypto cycle (an honest assessment):
Now that we are clearly in a bear market again as of February 7, 2026, and I have once again for the second cycle in a row round tripped to my bags this time from multi-millions down to mid-six figures, I’m reflecting on why and how I got it wrong this time.
I did not want to round trip my bags again like in 2021/2022, and so what I did during this bear market in 2022 was spend a lot of time studying the four year crypto cycle and preparing myself for it
Every four year cycle up until this one we just had has gone like this:
one year of awful bear market price action that presents massive buying opportunities
One year of consolidation.
One year of the beginning of the bull.
And then the final blow off top fourth year where at some point (whether it’s early in the year or late in the year, usually around May or October), everything goes crazy to the upside and we have a blow off top.
That has been the pattern for all 3 previous 4 year cycles prior to this one. So, I swore to myself that, when I get the first blow off top rally in 2025, which represents the fourth year, I would sell everything.
But there was one problem. I did not check my bias at the door. My bias is that I own a shit load of crypto and so I wanted to believe that the four year cycle works and that 2025 will have brought a huge blow off top.
Thus, when my crypto portfolio ripped from mid 6 figures to multi-millions in March 2024, I was very happy but I thought “we’re still so early. Why would I sell here? There is still all of 2024 and 2025 to go in this bull run.”
But in doing that, I disregarded all of the glaring signs that this time might be different:
First, we had the first ever bitcoin ETF, which came in January 2024. The launch of the bitcoin ETF changed the landscape dramatically. It decoupled bitcoin from the rest of crypto markets. Bitcoin started bringing in tons of retail money through financial advisors all over the world and institutional money that previously was not buying it. But the rest of crypto all of the ALT coins did not enjoy the same access to retail and institutional money.
For ALT coins, the only money invested in them was a rotation of From money that was already in the space. It was just one big circle jerk rotation of capital where the same people were chasing gains in meme coins, and AI coins.
In other words, no new money entered the space in ALT coins. The new money entering the space was entering bitcoin through the ETFs. There WERE some crypto experts out there that were saying this money will be sticky to bitcoin because it’s not new money entering bitcoin the traditional way. People who buy the bitcoin ETF are not going to sell that and rotate into risky ALT coins.
They’re either just going to hold it or they’re going to rotate into something else besides crypto.
In my gut, I knew this was true. But because I was so deep into my ALT coins, I disregarded it and HOPED that new money will come to the space.
Even though this was a four year cycle like all the others, there was also another key difference. Because of the bitcoin ETFs, bitcoin made a new all-time high before the having event. This has never happened before in the prior three cycles. The new bitcoin all-time high has always come after the having. This was further evidence that the ETFs were having a real, marked effect on this cycle. And, notably, as bitcoin was making a new all-time high, even before the having event, Ethereum and other major alt coins were not.
Secondly, out of all three prior cycles, the economic conditions during this cycle were by far the worst. The prior three cycles were marked by easy money.
The 2013 bull run came after the entire banking system almost collapsed in the financial crisis and the Fed was in easy mode
The 2017 bull run happened also during easy mode. Rates were low, and the economy was doing very well.
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