Tassopolis

Absolutely insane stat: Just 3.7% of stocks created 100% of U.S. stock market wealth over the last century. Miss a handful of winners … and you miss the market. That’s why you need to diversify.

The Process was ~10 years ago, and only now are they coming to the conclusion that tanking is existential to the product. It’s comical, but predictable. One look at the NBA league office and team ownership tells you the sport itself is not the priority. They are too busy squeezing every dollar out of gambling partnerships and forcing fans to juggle multiple subscriptions just to watch games. The game, the competition, the integrity all come second. They would rather chase the latest cultural flashpoint than protect the on-court product.

@HayekAndKeynes While SMH is at ATH’s & oil still hovering at a hundo. DXY pretty much where it was 6mo ago.

S&P 500 reclaimed 50-day and 200-day MAs Wednesday for first time since conflict began

@nullcharts @PamBondi Doesn’t sound very bearish. Pam Bondi might be rejoicing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully tested last the pre tariff-selloff highs at 45,000. Now let's see if it can take out 50,000 @PamBondi... $DJI $DIA

LOL too true

@thegarybrecka Any PB brands you’d recommend that r trustworthy?

Most people don’t realize this, but peanut butter can contain mold toxins. Peanuts are highly susceptible to a fungus that produces aflatoxins, which have been linked to inflammation and long-term health risks. It’s not something you’ll taste or see. And it’s not about fear, it’s about awareness. If you’re eating peanut butter every day thinking it’s a clean protein source, it might be worth taking a closer look at quality and sourcing.

@HayekAndKeynes Yet anecdotally I feel like there was a lot of bullish dialogue today based on how well markets held up this wk in the face of continued surges in oil prices

Approximately 40% of S&P 500 constituents were down 20%+ from their 252-day highs, consumer discretionary had 50% of its constituents in bear market territory, and the Magnificent Seven entered technical correction territory

@mfwarder Ha wow that place is still going! I graduated from WVU in 05. Never thought I’d see anyone I follow on Twitter post about it

April 25th will be our first time back home at 123 Pleasant Street in Morgantown, WV in ***20 years***! Tix available here: showclix.com/event/the-argu…

Little non-#coal news for once - my band The Argument is releasing a new song on April 24th, the day before our reunion show at @123pleasant in Morgantown, WV (link to tickets in the comments 🥳) Pre-save ‘Swimmingly’ at the Spotify link below! distrokid.com/hyperfollow/th…

@HayekAndKeynes 💯

It’s amazing how many people have difficulty plainly acknowledging that it is low grade terrorism keeping Hormuz closed. This is a conscious choice by Iran to economically attack third parties. A century ago, the Lusitania shifted public opinion overnight and pulled the U.S. into the First World War. Today’s leaders offer paralysis dressed up as restraint while their own economies wither.

@HayekAndKeynes Good point

@TassopoulosS Even dead Cats bounce (short squeeze)

Just a reminder to not ignore the overarching options structure surrounding the market. It is very fragile right now. VIX is arguably too low now given the magnitude of moves (VIX at 27 implies a ~1.7% daily move). With such an option heavy market and low liquidity, big moves will continue which can also pressure implied vol even more. We all know what happens when we transition from big down/up day to liquidation. As long as oil is over $100 and rising be very careful.

@HayekAndKeynes Thx for sharing. When times are this uncertain, all I know how to do is raise cash & short Cathy Wood names 🤣

I actually sold yesterday afternoon. Very bearish broadly (beyond gold). Expecting a puke in the coming days which should be the bottom (unless things spiral catastrophically). Keeping gross exposure low and just trading very tactically lately. News flow has been predictable and when it hasn’t there has been enough time to pivot and still catch a move.

"The decisive act of selling may turn out, with hindsight, to be a mistake, but the indecisive act of not selling can turn out to be a disaster." - Justin Mamis From his book When to Sell

@HayekAndKeynes Well done sir. Was at 6%, but prob held some names too long. These past couple days have taken away some gains. Glad to be at least positive tho, thx in part to following you

It’s been fun surfing in Hormuz

@mfwarder @JC_ParetsX @StockMktTV Get Matt back on the morning show. It needs more coal like we all need more cowbell.

@JC_ParetsX @StockMktTV Great opportunity to teach the effect of supply and demand on price. First teeth are more valuable than future teeth given that supply doubles on the second one! 🤣

We lost our first tooth yesterday, so I started doing some homework on the going rate for the Tooth Fairy. We're talking about what I discovered and what $$ we went with LIVE on The Morning Show @StockMktTV Here's the link: youtube.com/watch?v=gGckPd…

There are a lot of posts today about the Goldman positioning report, and they read universally bullish (flagging the charts that are bullish). Part of the reason is that people are only sharing the bullish angle and the rest of the report are on the twitter cutting room floor. The charts making the rounds cover US Equity Sentiment, Long/Short Performance, deleveraging episodes, Prime Book positioning, CTA systematic positioning, and others. Positioning has clearly improved. But the Goldman note went further and deeper, and provided reasons why this is not the all clear and why the structure of the market has not reset yet. I have not seen a single post showing both sides. I see a lot of book talking from the generals and know-it-alls, who gave zero warning before this market downdraft. On realized correlation: "Historically, meaningful drawdowns tend to come with a sharp rise in realized correlation, broader participation and more indiscriminate selling. That is not what we are seeing. 1m realized correlation is still only ~20%, which is relatively low and suggests this has been a narrow leadership unwind rather than a true broad-market liquidation." Breadth tells a similar story. Only ~11% of S&P constituents are oversold, far from the levels typically associated with durable bottoms. Then there is the options market: "S&P 1m implied correlation is now in the 40s, roughly 2x realized levels. That gap typically resolves one of two ways: either realized volatility picks up to meet expectations, or volatility compresses and hedges bleed." On the Mag 7: the report flags a dislocation in the volatility backdrop where they are trading at a discount to the rest of the S&P single stock universe. Goldman notes this is something they have really only seen once before, in March 2020. On the macro: "Cyclicals vs. Defensives has not fallen all that much versus similar episodes, and dividend futures suggest that growth expectations have only been modestly revised lower. S&P 2027 dividend futures are down just ~3 to 3.5% from highs, versus materially larger moves during prior stress episodes: 10% in April 2025, 6% in March 2023, 8% in 2022, and ~45% during Covid. The market is still a long way from pricing a true recessionary hit." On earnings: "2026 EPS estimates have actually risen ~3% over the past month, even as 10-year yields have surged ~50bp. The result has been multiple compression, not earnings downgrades. A rates-driven repricing, not a growth-driven one." Their takeaway, which I have not seen in a single post: "Positioning has improved, but growth expectations have not reset. We have not seen full blown panic, but the options markets are bracing for it." And the most important data point heading into month-end: dealers are now short roughly ~$7bn of S&P gamma, the 2nd most negative reading on record. The only comparable instance was January 20th, 2022, and that did not mark the bottom (they left this part out...). It preceded the largest VIX spike of the year just days later, even as SPX ultimately did not bottom until October. Btw, I am not saying we need to see this or that we indeed get it...but to buy a real dislocation in a single name security and/or index, you want Violence, not a slow bleed out (look at the software sector). Goldman's bottom line: "We have reduced risk, but we have not fully cleared the market. The technicals are setting up for a bounce, but without a macro reset or a true panic flush, it is hard to have conviction it is the durable low." When someone says they are seeing lots of opportunity right now, listen carefully. They are likely talking about names they already own. That is different from making a fresh market-level investment bet, which still feels premature. There are trading opportunities here, and select investments in names where the work is already done. But sliding chips in as a broad market call is a different decision entirely, and the structure of this market has not reset enough to make it with conviction. See posts on how to handle drawdowns, position block and portfolio hedging, etc. Stay tuned.

@howardlindzon Moving that into Coal and Solar Howard? Will be interesting to see what you and Ivan highlight this wk.

selling rest of my energy $xle this week...no edge here after the big breakout that got me into this but a 3 month record move is more luck than good

@potatokmish ILL so much more talented. Iowa coach is legit. Has them locked in.

Illinois might never have a two possession lead in this game?

@thegarybrecka While true, who the hell has the luxury of sleeping til 7am? Then beyond that, taking a leisurely stroll outside at that point.

One of the most powerful biohacks is still free. Morning sunlight. Getting natural light in your eyes early in the day helps anchor your circadian rhythm, improve cortisol timing, support melatonin production later that night, and increase daytime energy. Here is the protocol: - go outside within 30 minutes of waking - no sunglasses if safely possible - 5 to 10 minutes on bright days - 15 to 20 minutes on cloudy days This is foundational wellness. Before supplements. Before gadgets. Before hacks. Get light right and your biology starts working for you again.

@cperruna @Convertbond Agreed Chris. Can’t have it both ways, but unfortunately most in Twitter ignore that.

@Convertbond Still silence from Larry on gold's 20% drop. It was -26% Monday. But, but, but... Gold doesn't wipe out one quarter of an investor's positon in a matter of weeks, right. Gotta ignore the facts, I guess 🤷‍♂️

Same Story - One month Bonds $TLT -5% vs Stocks $QQQ -7% Last 20 years, equities risk-off + geopolitical events = bonds rallied / with higher prices. Game changer, since 2022 this has not been the case, a significant - bullish, hard asset, commodity driver.