Taylor Luck يوسف لاك

For more Middle East insights and analysis, follow me on @Substack at taylorluck.substack.com

A Qatari diplomat has told me there are no ongoing mediation efforts right now. “We are currently focused on defending our country and addressing the situation following the LNG attacks. We are not currently engaged in any mediation efforts”

Diplomatic advisor to the UAE’s President, Anwar Gargash, says that the Iranian aggression must not end simply with a ceasefire, but must also see limitations on Iran’s offensive capabilities and its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz. “As we confront the brutal Iranian aggression and discover our steadfast strength in resilience and endurance, our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire, but rather turns toward solutions that ensure lasting security in the Arabian Gulf, curbing the nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the bullying of the straits. It is inconceivable that this aggression should turn into a permanent state of threat,” Gargash said.

Spoke with @Taylor_Luck | @csmonitor about the implications of the Iran War for the Kurdistan region, which has been under pressure from Iraq, Iran and the U.S. csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…

I spoke with @csmonitor’s @Taylor_Luck on the impact of the war on #Iraq. csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…

This is an ethnic cleansing operation on a scale larger even than the Nakba

And it would be right to interpret this as panic, or at least a combustible combination of desperation and stupidity. Never in American history has a war with such global stakes been fought with such little planning.

Alongside war with Iran and global economic crisis, the war in Lebanon is a massive catastrophe. Good for @SenWarren to call out the human costs of Trump and Netanyahu's strategy of escalation and chaos

#Iraq: “The way in which the U.S. and Israel killed the supreme leader of #Iran in its opening salvo, the symbolism of him being an ayatollah, a religious leader, had an impact” on these groups... -- @HamzehKarkhi Iraq was enjoying newfound peace and prosperity. Then came the Iran war. By @Taylor_Luck via @csmonitor csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…

Just as Iraq was emerging from the shadows of decades of conflict and enjoying a surge in economic activity and stability, the country is being dragged into a regional war. @Taylor_Luck csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…

This morning: Goldman Sachs warned of higher oil for longer. Tonight: WSJ reports Saudi officials are running the numbers — and they don’t like what they see. Here’s what’s coming 🧵👇

The Iranian regime has now created enemies across the Arab world. Family and friends from Jerusalem, Amman, Abu Dhabi and Dubai all reported sirens during the night on the Eve of Eid. Instead of celebrating, they were kept awake by the sounds of Iranian missiles sirens. The

There is an undeniable element of deep resentment in Iran against the glittering prosperity of the Arab Gulf and that is an unfortunate contributor to what they are now doing. Only an Iranian govt that prioritises its own human development will be able to address that jealousy

I’m convinced most officials & specialists are too immersed in the moment to realize a certain basic fact about why Iran is striking the Gulf. When Iran was fighting in Syria & Iraq, its field commanders & their proxies (and their ecosystems in countries of Iranian influence) always promised that the next battle would be in the Gulf. This was conveyed, explicitly or otherwise, by Qassem Soleimani and allies like Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, Hassan Nasrallah and the Assad regime. It was part of a doctrine guiding Iran’s regional strategy, not mere passing comments. (The same language that Israel began using against regional countries only recently. “Qatar is next” or “Turkey is the new Iran” etc. Iran has used that language for many years.) Now, Gulf countries look at Iran and wonder: Why is Iran hitting us when we tried to talk Trump out of striking it? Iran knows we tried our best. Iran’s action is understandable if it targeted the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but why mediators like Qatar? Yes we have US bases, yes we can scream at the US, but it still makes little sense, even from a basic divide-and-conquer strategy. But Iran sees this war as having begun at least a decade or so ago, and the Gulf states played a vital role in getting Iran to where it is today. The Gulf is the problem, not just Israel or the US. Strategically reckless, but that is the plain IRGC logic. This is clear if those officials had followed the rhetoric over the last 1-2 decades and the nitty-gritty behavior of Iran on a ground level outside Iran.

With all the distractions in the Middle East, it’s easy to miss the fact that the Israeli air force is bombing Syria in order to facilitate a literal narcotics trafficking ring, under the guise of “protecting minorities” (a drug dealing clan linked to the former regime).

The Gulf region & Levant should prepare for a scenario in which the #Iranian regime survives, but emerges weakened, wounded, and with a revenge mindset. Its proxies will be empowered and prepared to participate in Tehran’s retaliation.

A message from "MBZ"--the UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed--texted to UAE residents

Next up: US asks Iran to join anti-Iran coalition

Consider this nightmare scenario: Trump keeps at it for few more weeks/months, fails to dislodge IRN regime and works out a deal instead: a partial restoration of shipping & side payments to IRGC. The global economy adjusts, but the Gulf states stay held to ransom by Iran.

RT @azelin: Just making stuff up.. your proxy Hijri backed by regime remnants attacked Syrian government territory

@rimaanabtawi aparrently.

@Taylor_Luck In Shmesani?

Iranian missile (intercepted?) hits West #Amman. #Iran still has ballistic missiles it is willing and eager to launch at #Jordan's capital, even as its stockpile is reportedly being degraded. Incredible "Muslim solidarity" by #Iran to do this to Jordan on the first day of #Eid