Teddy Seem

OpenAI is worth sub $10B. Precarious revenue stream that collapses behind any superior future model Barrage of lawsuits re. copywrited training data Unsustainable business model (avg user doesn’t want to pay $20/m) Biggest backer (Microsoft) no longer aligned incentives

Does anyone remember the ‘Mind Game’ from Enders Game? Feels like we are getting closer…

@krassenstein “You can add up how much debt was added under each [democrat and republican] president and between democrats and republicans, it’s KIND OF A TIE GAME” open.spotify.com/episode/4ihFVA…

I really want to hear how Republicans reconcile the whole "Democrats don't care about our national debt" argument with this simple, yet informative chart: 1989-1992 - Bush increases our deficit. 1993-2000 - Clinton has a budget surplus 2001-2008 - Bush increases our deficit, also sparks Great Recession 2009-2016 - Obama reduces our deficit significantly after an increase as he takes office during the Great Recession 2017-2020 - Trump increases our deficit thanks to Tax Cuts, before Covid explodes our deficit further 2021-2023 - Biden Takes over during Covid and begins reducing our deficit Can someone tell me what I'm missing here?   I know that our national debt is a problem and both sides should be blamed to some extent, but the GOP narrative that this is a Democratic problem is just laughable to me.

@RomeenSheth My perspective - value creation exponentiates throughout your career, and the longer you focus on optionality, the further you push out hopping on that exponential curve That being said, they can be non mutually exclusive and many of the best early career roles fit both buckets

One of the biggest mistakes I see people make early in their careers is make decisions on the basis of "maintaining their options." This sounds like a good idea, but is one of the most dangerous traps ambitious people fall into. You don't realize it at the time, but when you're "solving for optionality" you're playing by rules of a game that will be shortly outdated. In this week's screenshot essay (with my friends @Compound), I broke down how to think about this trap and tactics to make sure you don't fall into it.

@bernhardsson Juicelabs.co

Who is building the Airbnb of GPUs?

In the era of ChatGPT, I believe there will be a real advantage in a liberal arts computer science education. Learning the theoretical side of coding and core principles will be far more valuable than the applied side and blocking and tackling of software engineering.

@zhusu This is the opposite that I would expect. In times of exuberance it is better to be a seller of equity. In times of austerity it is better to be a buyer of equity.

The function of bear markets is to re-calibrate the ratio of investors to builders Many investors leave Builders who became investors return to building Investors consider using their knowledge to build Balance is restored

With the rapid acceleration of Generative AI, I’m not as confident as I used to be around product moats built on collaboration (Figma, Flux, Google Docs). It used to be “two heads were better than one”, but in the future it may be “one head and one GenAI” 🧐

I’ve only received emails from @coinbase encouraging me to trade when crypto is significantly up in the past 24 hrs… This is the opposite of what’s in the best interest of their customers. #buylowsellhigh

@SahilBloom I call 1st and 2nd order thinkers, pattern matchers and synthesizers. Pattern matchers take new info, match it against old info and regurgitate the old. Synthesizers take new information and combine it with previous information to create a new level of understanding.

Second-order thinkers will always be in short supply. The world is filled with first-order thinkers—it’s so easy to do. Asking “and then what?” is a tried-and-true way to dig deeper and stand out—in business, investing, or life. It also might piss some people off, but oh well.

It’s 5pm, freezing outside, and I’m two whiskies deep. A few thoughts and hot takes (on a wide variety of topics):

Life is too short to not start from a place of excitement and joy in helping others pursue their dream of changing the world around us.

There needs to be more fun in venture capital. It feels like it’s gotten too serious and pervasively stressful.

In 2022 the SEC will succeed in requiring increased reporting from large private unicorns. Many of these unicorns will stay private (rising rates, hesitant public investors). Outcome: Many will finally realize that these valuations are the emperors new clothes.

Web3 will not create the level of decentralization that many hope. While technology has evolved to achieve this goal, human nature has not. Humans will always seek to store, pool, and centralize resources for security, peace of mind, and accountability.

@mwseibel If I was an amazing founder/company who was looking to YC predominantly for exposure, I don’t think I’d like this. While framed as leveling the playing field so companies don’t need to take unfavorable terms, this was never the worry for the top companies in every batch.

We have a little news to share: blog.ycombinator.com/ycs-standard-d…

I fear that angle investors don’t fully understand the current investing environment. They are getting less upside (higher entrance valuations) and taking on more risk (getting buried under larger cap tables) than ever before. Can market growth continue to compensate? 🤷‍♂️

Was super cool to see the behind the scenes set-up with all the new equipment. To see one of the robot battles check it out here: youtu.be/LAFFqv4_EkM

@tstock915 I disagree. This program will be great in catalyzing needed, continuous workforce re-tooling, but will never reach the level of replacing universities. Considering these certs equivalent to a 4-year degree is doing a disservice to those who decide to go through the program.

Google’s launch of their own career certificates yesterday is the 1st step in Big Tech bypassing universities entirely. “In our own hiring, we will now treat these new [Google] career certificates as the equivalent of a 4 year degree” Others will join. blog.google/outreach-initi…

Excited about the @PremierLacrosse being able to continue this season. Big question - given teams aren’t linked to local markets, how does inability to tour (especially in 2nd year of existence) affect fan base growth and team allegiances. Interested to know how PLL is thinking.

After months of lurking on Twitter, I figured it was time to finally get one myself. Look for a lot of tweets about our new VC fund @OutsidersFund, lacrosse and outdoor/adventure sports.