@BacktestGuy

US stock market futures open in 4 hours: Meanwhile, since markets closed on Friday, President Trump has both de-escalated and escalated the Iran War. It began with Trump claiming he was considering "winding down" the Iran War. And now, President Trump has threatened the biggest escalation of the conflict yet, striking Iran's power plants. His deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ends in ~30 hours and Iran has completely resisted such demands. In fact, Iran said that if the US strikes their power plants, the Strait of Hormuz will be "completely shut down," and they will target US/Israeli infrastructure across the Middle East. The Iran War has officially begun its 4th week with another major escalation. Brace for volatility at the open.

@KobeissiLetter Trump: "winding down" Also Trump: threatens to bomb Iran's power plants Iran: "do it and Hormuz shuts completely" 30 hours until the deadline. 4 hours until futures open. 0 signs of de-escalation. "Brace for volatility" is an understatement.

@KobeissiLetter 6 events this week. Only 1 matters. Trump's 48-hour warning to Iran. If the war escalates, no PMI or jobs data will save this market. If it de-escalates, everything reverses. Macro is irrelevant when geopolitics has a 48-hour fuse.

Key Events This Week: 1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" to Iran - Today 6 PM ET 2. March S&P Global Services PMI data - Tuesday 3. US Crude Oil Inventory data - Wednesday 4. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 5. March MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday 6. March MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday We expect another chaotic futures open today.

Week 3 of the Iran War. Here's every major data point from this week. Connected. Oil: +65% YTD. Most explosive start to a year. Ever. Gold: -$1,100/oz from ATH. "Safe haven" crashing. European gas: Qatar LNG offline for years. S&P 500: lower low on the weekly. US debt: $39 trillion. All-time high. Fed: rate HIKES back on the table (BofA). NAAIM: 60 points. Biggest drop since 2022 bear market. Bezos: raising $100B to automate factories with AI. Top 20%: own $49T in equities. Record inequality. Basel III: relaxed. $200B freed for banks. Everyone is reporting these as separate headlines. They're not. It's one story: War → oil shock → inflation → Fed trapped → assets fall → debt spiral accelerates This is the macro doom loop: → More war spending → bigger deficit → Higher oil → stickier inflation → Stickier inflation → rates stay high (or rise) → Higher rates → $39T debt costs more to service → More debt → more printing → more inflation There is no easy exit. The playbook for this environment: OWN: oil majors, defense, nuclear, uranium, short-duration value, cash at 5%+ AVOID: unprofitable growth, real estate, long-duration bonds, leverage WATCH: gold (buy when rates peak, not before), BTC (same logic) The market doesn't reward hope right now. It rewards clarity. data over narratives. always.

Powell just admitted 50-75% of core inflation is tariffs. Tariffs = policy choice, not economic overheating. This means: → Rate hikes won't fix tariff-driven inflation → Rate cuts won't happen because inflation is still 3% → The Fed is completely trapped They have a tool (rates) designed for demand-driven inflation. The inflation is supply-driven (tariffs + oil). It's like using an umbrella in an earthquake. Technically you're doing something. It's just useless.

Jerome Powell: "If you look at total core inflation, it's about 3%. Some big chunk of that, around 1/2 or 3/4, is actually tariffs."

NAAIM at 60. Let's check what happened next the last 3 times: April 2025: NAAIM bottomed → S&P rallied +15% in 3 months March 2022: NAAIM dropped to similar levels → S&P fell another -15% before bottoming in October March 2020: NAAIM cratered → generational buying opportunity The pattern: low NAAIM is a necessary condition for a bottom. But not a sufficient one. In 2025 and 2020, the Fed was ready to ease. In 2022, it wasn't. The market bottomed 6 months later. In 2026? The Fed is talking HIKES. NAAIM at 60 says managers are scared. It doesn't say they're wrong.

Active asset managers are cutting equity exposure: The NAAIM Exposure Index is down to 60 points, the lowest since the April 2025 sell-off. This index measures average exposure to US equities reported by members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. Since the start of 2026, the index has declined -38 points, the largest drop since February-April 2025. This is also similar to the drop seen at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. The 4-week average is now down to 70 points, the lowest since May 2025. Institutional investors are moving to the sidelines.

The US just crossed $39 trillion in federal debt. Everyone is talking about the number. Nobody is talking about the trap. Here's the math: At current rates, debt servicing costs ~$1.2 trillion/year. That's $3.3 billion PER DAY just in interest. Now add: → Oil at $97 → inflation sticky → Fed can't cut → War in Iran → $25B+ already spent, no end in sight → BofA says rate HIKES back on the table Every rate hike to fight inflation makes the debt MORE expensive. Every dollar of war spending adds to the deficit. Every day oil stays high keeps rates elevated. This is a fiscal doom loop: more debt → higher rates → more interest → more debt The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is now 124%. Historical context: → Post-WW2 peak: 118% (1946) → 2008 crisis: 68% → 2020 Covid: 100% → 2026: 124% and accelerating We just passed the WW2 record. Except in 1946, the US was the world's manufacturer, creditor, and oil producer. In 2026, it's the world's largest debtor running a $2.4T/year deficit. How does this end? History gives us 3 exits: Grow out of it (GDP > debt growth) — not happening at 1-2% real growth Inflate it away (real value of debt shrinks) — happening, but Fed is fighting it Restructure/default — politically impossible. Until it isn't. The investment thesis: real assets outperform paper assets in every debt crisis. Oil, commodities, gold (once rates peak), infrastructure, land. The dollar isn't crashing tomorrow. But the purchasing power erosion is already here. data over narratives. always.

$39T debt + oil shock + potential rate hikes = the worst possible combination. Higher rates → debt servicing costs explode Oil shock → inflation stays sticky → rates stay high War spending → deficit accelerates further This is a doom loop. More debt → higher rates → more interest → more debt. The only historical exit from this: inflate it away or default. There is no third option. That's why smart money is buying real assets. Oil. Gold (on dips). Land. Infrastructure. Anything that isn't a government promise.

BREAKING: US federal debt has officially risen above $39 trillion for the first time in history, now up +$2 trillion over the last 8 months. Since the debt ceiling was lifted in early July, US debt has risen +$2.8 trillion. Total US debt has nearly DOUBLED since 2018, with the US Debt-to-GDP ratio now up to 124%. Meanwhile, US debt is projected to surge +$2.4 trillion per year over the next 10 years, reaching a record $64 trillion by 2036, according to CBO estimates. The US debt crisis is out of control.

Gold -20% from ATH. Everyone panicking.What the data says: → Central banks bought 230 tonnes in Q4 2025 → Physical premiums still elevated → JP Morgan target: $6,300 → Deutsche Bank target: $6,000Paper gold is getting liquidated. Margin calls, forced selling, position flushing.Physical gold? Central banks aren't selling. They're waiting for exactly this dip.Every major gold bull market has had a 15-25% correction. This is textbook. The question is whether you're buying with central banks or selling with leveraged traders.

Gold -20% from ATH. Everyone panicking.What the data says: → Central banks bought 230 tonnes in Q4 2025 → Physical premiums still elevated → JP Morgan target: $6,300 → Deutsche Bank target: $6,000Paper gold is getting liquidated. Margin calls, forced selling, position flushing.Physical gold? Central banks aren't selling. They're waiting for exactly this dip.Every major gold bull market has had a 15-25% correction. This is textbook. The question is whether you're buying with central banks or selling with leveraged traders.

BREAKING: Gold prices fall below $4,500/oz for the first time since February 2nd. Gold is now down -$1,100/oz from its record high seen in January.

Let me get this straight: → Oil at $97 (above BofA's $80-100 hike trigger) → Oman physical at $167 → Qatar LNG offline for years → Hormuz still contested → War is 3 weeks old with no end in sight BofA says hikes are possible IF oil holds $80-100. We blew past that weeks ago. The question isn't "if." It's "when."

FED HIKE BACK IN PLAY IF OIL SHOCK PERSISTS Bank of America says markets have largely ruled out Fed rate cuts—and are now asking what could trigger hikes instead. The bank outlines three key conditions: a stable labor market, Jerome Powell staying as Chair, and a sustained but moderate oil shock from Iran. Rate hikes become likely if oil holds around $80–$100. Sticky inflation and rising energy prices are keeping pressure on the Fed, making cuts harder to justify. Powell has already struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing inflation risks and uncertainty סביב the Iran conflict. Bottom line: if the oil shock lingers, the Fed could shift back toward tightening.

@DeItaone 17% of Qatar's LNG exports offline. Qatar supplies ~25% of global LNG. That's ~4% of the world's entire LNG supply gone. Not for weeks. For YEARS. Europe spent 3 years diversifying away from Russian gas. They diversified INTO Qatar. The backup plan just became the problem.

EUROPE GAS SHOCK FROM QATAR OUTAGE European gas prices are rising as damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities cuts about 17% of its exports, with repairs possibly taking years. What was seen as a short disruption is now a multi-year supply shock, tightening global markets and pushing up long-term prices—especially for 2027. Buyers are holding back, traders are cautious, and volatility has surged. While mild weather is limiting demand for now, colder conditions could quickly drive prices higher.

Bitcoin "looks bearish" in isolation. Zoom out: → Oil +65% YTD → inflation surging → Fed can't cut rates → liquidity tightening → Gold -20% from ATH → even safe havens are selling → Dollar strengthening → risk assets under pressure Bitcoin isn't bearish. Everything that isn't oil is bearish. BTC doesn't have a Bitcoin problem. It has a macro problem. And macro doesn't care about your chart patterns.

Bitcoin still looks bearish...

+65% YTD. Let's put that in perspective: 2008 oil spike to $147: +45% by mid-March 1990 Gulf War: +40% by mid-March 1973 Arab embargo: +35% by mid-March 2026 is already worse than all of them at this point in the year. And the Strait of Hormuz is still contested. 20% of global oil supply flows through it daily. We're not at the top. We're at the "nobody knows where the top is" phase.

Crude oil has ripped +65.4% YTD, the most explosive start to the year on record

@KobeissiLetter $49.1T vs $1.5T. The top 20% own 33x more equities than the bottom 40%. And the single best predictor of which group you're in? Whether you bought stocks in March 2020. Financial literacy isn't a nice-to-have. It's the dividing line of this generation.

BREAKING: The top 20% of earners in the US now hold a record $49.1 trillion in equities and mutual funds, or ~87% of the total. By comparison, the middle 40% and bottom 40% own $5.9 trillion and $1.5 trillion, respectively. Since the 2020 pandemic, equity ownership among the top 20% has surged +$29.8 trillion, or +154%. By comparison, the bottom 80% have captured just +$4.2 trillion over the same period. To put this differently, the top 20% have gained +600% more than the bottom 80% in Dollar terms. As we have warned, asset owners are the only winners.

$100B to buy manufacturers and automate them with AI. This is the playbook no one is talking about: Step 1: Buy undervalued industrial companies (low multiples, aging workforce) Step 2: Deploy AI + robotics to cut labor costs 40-60% Step 3: Margins explode, revalue at tech multiples Bezos is arbitraging the gap between industrial valuations and AI-era margins. That's the real thesis.

BREAKING: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them, per WSJ.

The investment implications here are massive: China can draw 1M bbl/day for months → they won't panic buy → ceiling on Asian demand pressure But when those reserves deplete, the restocking cycle will be the biggest demand shock in years Meanwhile, restricting fuel exports = bullish for Asian refining margins (Sinopec, PetroChina)

@Actual_Abdullah @KobeissiLetter To put 1.2 billion barrels in perspective: That's more than the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its PEAK (727M barrels). China now holds more emergency oil than America. The power shift in global energy isn't coming. It already happened.

China is sitting on massive oil reserves: Chinese crude oil imports surged +15.8% YoY in February, the biggest monthly jump since August 2023. Growth rates have QUADRUPLED since the end of 2025. After over a year of stockpiling, China has built up an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of reserves. This includes ~851 million barrels of commercial inventory, the supply that would likely be used first. Meanwhile, refiners could start drawing as much as 1 million barrels per day over the next 4 to 6 weeks. In the first week of the Iran War, Beijing already ordered its biggest refiners to restrict fuel exports and prioritize gasoline and diesel production over chemicals as a precautionary move. China is playing the long game amid the Iran War.

The spread between WTI ($97) and Oman physical ($167) is the real story here. That 72% premium means physical supply is broken. Futures traders and actual buyers are living in two different realities. Who benefits: → Oil majors with physical assets (Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies) → Tanker companies (shipping rates are exploding) → Defense contractors (war = more spending) Who gets crushed: → Airlines, logistics, anything fuel-dependent → Emerging markets importing oil → Consumer discretionary (gas eats disposable income) $97 WTI with Hormuz still contested means we haven't seen the top yet.

The spread between WTI ($97) and Oman physical ($167) is the real story here. That 72% premium means physical supply is broken. Futures traders and actual buyers are living in two different realities. Who benefits: → Oil majors with physical assets (Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies) → Tanker companies (shipping rates are exploding) → Defense contractors (war = more spending) Who gets crushed: → Airlines, logistics, anything fuel-dependent → Emerging markets importing oil → Consumer discretionary (gas eats disposable income) $97 WTI with Hormuz still contested means we haven't seen the top yet.

Global oil markets are out of control: As the Iran War closes week 3, US oil prices are trading at $97/barrel, up +76% since December. Meanwhile, physical oil prices in Oman are up to a RECORD $167/barrel, a +72% PREMIUM. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)