Tether Maximalist
699 posts


everyone's yelling "AI bubble" lately esp after nvidia's earnings fade. here's my 2 cents.
first, a bubble is when hype outpaces reality and becomes unsustainable. that's not what's happening here.
training costs are falling exponentially with every model generation. plus, deepseek already proved you can build a solid model for a fraction of the cost. even if it's slightly worse, a 99% cheaper model is still sustainable and totally usable.
people are conflating cost with demand. gpu shortages, data center buildouts, compute bottlenecks etc, these look like "rising costs," but they're really just organic scaling pressure from hyper demand.
more users, longer prompts, enterprise workloads, and layered agents all create that illusion. it's not cost failure, it's modeling infrastructure catching up, with a fallback to the deepseek type equivalent if necessary. and that means we're still early in the economic curve.
think about ethereum -- everyone said it was dead when it could only handle 7–15 TPS. then $200 gas fees triggered the explosion of L1s and L2s. the system didn't collapse, it evolved. AI's in that same growing pain phase now.
the only real systemic risk i see is human displacement outpacing new economic creation. if people lose the ability to consume faster than AI can create output, demand collapses. that's the balance to watch -- not whether this is a bubble.
pandora's box is open. people will be replaced. companies including my own are applying AI tech to solve real problems. some friction is natural -- old guard adapting or fading, new entrants born into an AI-native world. it'll take time.
people referencing the dot-com bubble are viewing the comparison from the wrong lens. the dot-com bubble wasn't about the tech being bad -- it was about too much liquidity, too fast. remember, this was the first time someone with an internet connection could suddenly trade from their PC. back then P/E ratio was 60+. today, we're in the 30s. valuations aren't crazy by any means.
we might get corrections from profit-taking or FUD, sure. but that's not a bubble.
and honestly, it's rare for everyone to be calling it a bubble and actually be right. if markets do crash hard, it'll probably be from some external shock -- not from some sort of "AI bubble" itself.


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ONLY A FEW WILL CATCH THE MOVE SOUTH
THE CHOP IN BETWEEN WILL BE UNBEARABLE FOR MANY
YOU FLIP BIAS AS THE MARKET MOVES BETWEEN YOUR STOPS
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@ThinkingUSD The only thing people care about regarding crypto is how many $USD it can be exchanged for.
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@heart_ @inversebrah Imagine the people confident they will sell it for a profit in the future, even more sad
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@mgnr_io @btcmerlin1 Shhh someone has to lose to give us the free money
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