Jose Adolph

@aaronsalomong Típica política caviar/progre/woke/DEI. Dondequiera que se implementan terminan haciendo mucho daño a las instituciones. El mundo gradualmente está desmantelando el engendro (con EEUU a la cabeza), pero aquí todavía nos falta mucho.

A Burneo le regalaron 12 puntos por discapacidad visual.

@panch_pe Ojalá tengan una ficha de reemplazo razonable. No vayamos a terminar con Sigrid de presidenta.

Se le acabó el chiste a Balcázar

@jdealthaus Buen editorial. Los últimos días hemos tenido un penoso diálogo de sordos generado por la pésima redacción del comunicado del JNE y su presidente que no lo explica en una conferencia. Ya va siendo tiempo de cambiar la procedencia del jefe del JNE: el PJ no da la talla.

Editorial de Lampadia: lampadia.com/analisis/no-ju…

@MalditosPublis En realidad la MML no se tiene que encargar ni de los votos (para eso están las autoridades electorales y los personeros de los partidos), ni de la seguridad; sin embargo, la MML se ha puesto este último encargo bajo sus hombros con el serenazgo, motos y cámaras.

Los vecinos de Lima no quieren que defiendan sus votos, quieren llegar a su casa vivos Renzo.

@adrianatudelag @AvanzaPaisOfi Correcto. Lo ideal es que proporcionen sus personeros a FP (y RN si pasa) para que se puedan cubrir todas las mesas, incluso las 900x.

Hay que llamar a las cosas por su nombre: el proyecto político de Roberto Sánchez y Juntos por el Perú es un peligro para el país.

@SeverusChud They could release a director's cut where Helen is AI-generated, and Lupita her housekeeper.

I'm sorry, but Nolan casting Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy has completely killed all immersion in this epic for me. Homer’s Odyssey was never some diverse melting pot. Helen was a fair skinned, golden-haired Spartan queen, daughter of Zeus, the ultimate beauty in an epic built by European blood and gods. Yet i'm meant to believe her face was the one who launched a 1,000 ships? It's very sad to see Nolan go down this route. Ancient Greece wasn’t full of Sub Saharans, yet they’re flooding Ithaca with dei and tokenism. This destroys what could’ve been a incredible Epic. Tragic.

@alphaticaio Hi, your posts are superb. But I have to admit that I struggle to understand some points (even after trying to get explanations from AI). Could you point me to some resource to gain the knowledge needed to fully understand your posts?

🚨🚨🚨SPY OPEN | Tuesday May 5 | A note to our Readers $722.49. Up 0.62%. New all-time high. The structure bounced back from yesterday's scare. But we need to talk about where we are. Our Composite Score: +22.4 [Lean Bullish] Yesterday the composite went from +22.2 to -7.0 to -7.0 with deeply negative gamma. Today it's back to +22.4 with GEX at +$698M. The recovery was swift. Every metric that deteriorated yesterday reversed overnight: dealers rebuilt from 94M to 136M, GEX swung from -$475M to +$698M, flow flipped from -114M bearish to +11.7M bullish. The structure is healthy. Now let's talk about expectations. WHERE WE ARE: In February and March, when SPX was in the low 6,600s and fintwit was calling for a crash, we published a year-end target of SPX 7,462. That was based on earnings growth trajectory, positioning data, and the assumption that the geopolitical shock would be temporary. SPX is at 7,225 today. That's 3.3% from our year-end target. In May. Seven months early. We're not revising the target yet. But we want to be direct with our readers: the easy money has been made. The April rally delivered +10.4% in one month. The mechanics that powered it were extreme and specific: 13.3M put OI bleeding into dealer buying, dense near-term gamma, a ceasefire removing the tail risk. Those conditions don't repeat every month. WHY WE'VE BEEN CAUTIOUS: The last 48 hours we flagged several warnings. Here's why: The gamma thinned. April's OpEx stripped 25.5% of gamma. The dense suppression that absorbed every dip during the 13-day rally is gone. Yesterday a 0.51% dip produced -114M of bearish flow and collapsed GEX by $547M. In April that move would have been invisible. The GEX flip is close. $711 today, 1.7% below. During the rally it was 4-5%. The floor is higher and thinner. Less room for error. Earnings are beating but selling. Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon all beat and sold. Apple and Alphabet were the exceptions. The market is running out of upside surprises. When beats can't lift prices, the bar is too high. The Fed is divided. Four dissents. Three hawks who wanted to remove the easing bias. Rate cuts are dead for 2026. Warsh inherits a committee at war with itself on May 15. Hormuz is still closed. Oil above $95. The ceasefire is open-ended but no talks are scheduled. The headline risk hasn't gone away. It just went quiet. WHAT THE STRUCTURE SAYS TODAY: The mechanics are bullish. That hasn't changed. Dealers short 136M shares. Buying dips. GEX: +$698M. Positive. Suppressive. $725 magnet at +$199M directly above price. $722: +$157M. $723: +$143M. $730: +$131M. Magnets stacked to $750. No accelerators in the top 8. Nearest accelerator: $700 at -$131M, 3.1% below. IV: 15.1%. Cheap. Below realized (16.1%). Options are underpricing movement. Flow: +11.7M shares bullish. +$351M into calls at 73% call-heavy. The lean is bullish. We're not fighting it. BUT: Being bullish and being reckless are different things. The structure supports the grind to $725-$730. It does not support chasing at all-time highs with concentrated positions expecting another 10% month. The mechanics favor higher. The magnitude favors modest. The risk favors hedged. AMD AFTER THE BELL: AMD reports tonight. Semiconductor sentiment is elevated after Intel's +19% and Nvidia's continued strength. The AI capex theme is the market's primary narrative. A beat from AMD extends the theme. A miss or weak guidance cracks it. The bottom line: The structure is bullish. We are not fighting it. But we are telling our readers what we told them at every inflection point this cycle: trade the data, size for the risk, and don't let a great month turn into overconfidence. We were bullish at $656 when everyone was bearish. We'll be cautious at $722 while everyone is euphoric. The data drives the direction. Discipline drives the sizing. $725 is the magnet. $730 is the target. $711 is the floor. The mechanics say higher. The velocity says slower. Respect both. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $SPX

@JBCPERU El comunicado confuso del JNE ha dado combustible a estos reclamos, que en un 90% carecen de sentido. El otro 10% es seguramente corrupción: muy difícil probar intención de fraude. A Balcázar ya le gustó el cargo y va tardar mucho en convocar nuevas elecciones si éstas se anulan.

#Porky convoca un gran mitin a pesar que sabe perfectamente que no habrá elecciones complementarias, tampoco se anulará el proceso electoral y el 7 de junio se elegirá al nuevo presidente o presidenta. Esto no excluye las investigaciones en marcha como tampoco la auditoría en proceso para deslindar responsabilidades y sancionar a los culpables del desbarajuste electoral en Lima promovido por algunos burócratas ineptos y quizá corruptos al interior de ONPE; pero nada de lo que se investiga alcanza el nivel de un fraude ni afecta el resultado final que ya conocemos. Una lástima, pero los hechos son los hechos y suelen ser crueles sobre todo con los fanáticos que marcharán en protesta contra la realidad. No está mal, el caminar, aplaudir y gritar son ejercicios médicamente recomendados ya que ayudan al desfleme como a desintoxicar el alma. x.com/reyconbarba/st…

@ugluis Muy cierto. En este momento no es racional mantener el capital en el Perú mientras haya posibilidad de colocarlo en cualquier otro país con un gobierno decente. Hasta se hace necesario para poder combatir en el futuro desde el exilio.

Mismo Velasco pero rodeado de ignorantes, vendepatria, extremistas, terroristas, resentidos sociales, acomplejados, corruptos, garrapatas e ignorantes. La fuga de capitales ya empezó; aquí no invierte nadie hasta que pierda este miserable.

Keiko marcó la diferencia desde el inicio de su campaña, de ahí su triunfo contundente en la primera vuelta. Carismática, madura, serena, reflexiva y firme. Cualidades sobresalientes que la hacen la candidata perfecta para el país. ¡Keiko Presidenta 2026! #EleccionesPerú2026

Winston Churchill fought his depression with bricks. He'd lay them for hours at his country home in Kent. He joined the bricklayers' union. And in 1921 he wrote about why it worked. It took psychology another 75 years to catch up. He called his depression the "Black Dog." It followed him for decades. His method for fighting it back was as basic as it sounds: laying brick after brick, hour after hour. Churchill spelled out his theory in a long essay for The Strand Magazine. People who think for a living, he wrote, can't fix a tired brain just by resting it. They have to use a different part of themselves. The part that moves the eyes and the hands. Woodworking, chemistry, bookbinding, bricklaying, painting. Anything that drags the body into a problem the mind can't solve by itself. Modern psychology now calls this behavioral activation. It's one of the most-studied depression treatments out there. Depression sets a behavior trap. You feel bad, so you stop doing things, and doing less means less to feel good about. Feeling worse makes you do even less. The loop tightens until you can't breathe inside it. Behavioral activation breaks the loop from the action side. You schedule the activity first, even when every part of you doesn't want to. Doing it produces small rewards: a wall gets straighter, a painting fills in, a messy room gets clean. Those small rewards slowly rewire the brain. Action comes first, and the feeling follows. Researchers at the University of Washington put this to the test in 2006. They studied 241 adults with major depression and compared three treatments: behavioral activation, regular talk therapy, and antidepressants. For the people who were most severely depressed, behavioral activation matched the drugs. It beat the talk therapy. A 2014 review of more than 1,500 patients across 26 trials backed up the result. Physical work like bricklaying does something extra on top of this. It crowds out rumination, the looping bad thoughts that grind people down during the worst stretches of depression. Bricklaying needs both hands and gives feedback brick by brick: each one is straight or crooked. After an hour you can see exactly how much wall you built. No room left for the mental chewing. The line George Mack used in his post, "depression hates a moving target," is good poetry. The science behind it is sharper. Depression hates a brain that has somewhere else to be.

@Ric_RTP Nice analogy: "look more like a pharmaceutical company paying doctors to prescribe their drug" Sadly, this pharma play was very successful.

OpenAI just created a $10 billion company whose ONLY job is forcing businesses to use AI. And they're literally guaranteeing investors a 17.5% annual return to make it happen. It's called "The Deployment Company." OpenAI finalized it yesterday with 19 investors including TPG, SoftBank, Bain Capital, Brookfield, and Advent International. Here's the structure: OpenAI puts in $1.5 billion. The private equity firms put in $4 billion. In exchange, those PE firms open up their 2,000+ portfolio companies as a CAPTIVE customer base for OpenAI's products. OpenAI then embeds teams of engineers directly inside those companies, Palantir-style, to integrate their tools into daily operations. And here's the big red flag in all of this: OpenAI is GUARANTEEING those PE firms a 17.5% annual return over five years. That means even if the companies in the portfolio don't want AI, don't need AI, or get zero value from AI, OpenAI is still on the hook to pay those returns. Think about what that means for a second. OpenAI is so desperate for enterprise adoption that they're paying Wall Street to force their product into thousands of businesses. They've essentially turned private equity firms into a distribution cartel with a guaranteed commission. This has NEVER been done before in enterprise software. No software company in history has guaranteed above-market returns to financial sponsors just to get their product installed. And it gets crazier: Within MINUTES of OpenAI's announcement, Anthropic announced their own version. A $1.5 billion joint venture with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman. Same playbook. Two companies worth a combined $1+ TRILLION in private valuation both concluded on the same day that organic demand for their products is not growing fast enough. If enterprises were lining up to buy AI on their own, you wouldn't need to bribe private equity firms with guaranteed returns to shove it into their portfolios. You would just sell it normally like every other software company in history. But they can't. Because the gap between what AI companies PROMISE and what enterprises actually experience is still enormous. OpenAI's COO Brad Lightcap just moved into a new role specifically to lead this push. They've also signed "Frontier Alliances" with major consulting firms to embed AI through professional services channels. Every move they're making screams the same thing: We have a demand problem. And this is all happening right before OpenAI tries to IPO at $850 billion. If they can show Wall Street that 2,000+ companies are "using OpenAI products" through this PE distribution channel, it inflates their enterprise metrics right before the roadshow. Doesn't matter if those companies actually need it or if it creates real value. What matters is the number on the S-1. This is the AI playbook entering its most dangerous phase. The tech is real but the business model is being held together by financial engineering, guaranteed returns, and captive distribution deals that look more like a pharmaceutical company paying doctors to prescribe their drug than a software company earning customers on merit. And both OpenAI and Anthropic admitted it on the same day.

¡Feliz Bicentenario 🇺🇸🇵🇪! La Torre de la Libertad en @MDCollege, presente en nuestra moneda conmemorativa @bcrpoficial, brilla con los colores de la bandera peruana. @CancilleriaPeru

@jota1987da @C_Irreverencias El punto es que la recetas de la izquierda (de toda la vida) incluyen estos actos confiscatorios sobre la población.

@TheAdolphJose @C_Irreverencias La dictadura de izquierda es la de Velasco hace 50 años. La aventura de Alan ocurrió en los 80’. Ambas experiencias o recetas nos demuestran que tampoco son la solución. Y lo único que avaló el TC y el PJ es la suspensión. No la resolución de los contratos.

Entre abril y junio 2021, el Perú vivió, según el BCRP, la mayor fuga de capitales en medio siglo: el equivalente al 7,4% del PBI nacional (US$ 17,161 millones) salió del país en apenas 3 meses.

@jota1987da @C_Irreverencias Por eso anoté que era "izquierdoso", obviamente no era un dictador. No me convencen acusaciones impulsadas por sus odiadores de toda la vida; sin embargo, el primer gobierno aprista sí estuvo plagado de corrupción por parte de sus partidarios. Eso lo corrigió en el 2do gobierno.

@TheAdolphJose @C_Irreverencias Y Alan no era un dictador, solo fue un tremendo corrupto!

@jota1987da @C_Irreverencias Sobre Porky (no voté por él), su demanda fue avalada por el PJ y luego el TC; ergo, no se puede hablar de inseguridad jurídica. Otra cosa muy distinta es que al final tengamos que pagar indemnizaciones. De hecho es algo muy común en el Estado, sólo que no suele ser tan mediático.

@jota1987da @C_Irreverencias Sobre dictaduras de izquierda, revisa historia del gobierno militar y el gobierno "izquierdoso" de Alan 1: sus prohibiciones, controles y confiscaciones. Obviamente no la hay en este momento, pero eso es lo que intentó P. Castillo, y que ahora pretende la gente de Sánchez. 1/2

@jota1987da @C_Irreverencias Eso es de manual en los zurdos, siempre con el rollo patriotero contra los ricos. Lo hacen de muchísimas formas, p/ej. limitando retiros en bancos, congelando/prohibiendo moneda extranjera, etc. Ya lo han hecho antes en el Perú. No voté por Porky, no sé que tiene que ver aquí.

@TheAdolphJose @C_Irreverencias Y tú crees que Sánchez va a expropiar? Porky le ha hecho más daño a la seguridad jurídica por si acaso!

@gonzalesposadal 1 ¿Por qué? 2 Asumiendo que existe una buena justificación, ¿cómo se podría hacer cumplir esa norma?

🇵🇪 El Gobierno o/y el Congreso deben prohibir a los peruanos emplearse como mercenarios al servicio de potencias extranjeras.

@jdealthaus RLA está pésimamente asesorado, y sigue soltando pachotadas como ese disparate estadístico. Pero a la incompetencia de la ONPE, se ha sumado el confuso comunicado del JNE que ha generado múltiples interpretaciones de las cifras expuestas.

RLA afirma en un video que los resultados de serie 900000 el 2021 y el 2026 son un espejo exacto de la votación de Cajamarca. Es decir, los porcentajes serian iguales. Pero si vemos los propios gráficos presentados, resulta que por Perú Libre votó un 24% el 2021 y por Juntos por el Perú 30.2% el 2026. ¡6 puntos de diferencia! En Cajamarca Peru Libre tuvo, si, 24% el 2021 pero Juntos por el Perú alcanzó 41.3% el 2026. Es perfectamente lógico en las zonas rurales Juntos por el Perú haya tenido mayor votación. Pero un 30.2% en las mesas ultra rurales está incluso por debajo de lo que podría haberse conjeturado.