TheLazyEuropean

I’m The Lazy European – economist by training, chronicler of global madness by choice. Expect: – pro‑Ukraine 🇺🇦, EU‑federalist 🇪🇺, anti‑propaganda takes – geopolitics, energy and markets explained in tired‑European language – serious facts, based memes I punch up, not down – criticism is reserved for regimes and leaders whose decisions wreck real lives. If that sounds like your thing, grab a coffee ☕️ and stick around.

Hello, Europe. ☕️ Today is the International Day of Museums – a nice excuse to learn something new about the world before the news cycle hits. The key things to watch today: – How markets digest the latest headlines on Iran, Hormuz and US–China after the Trump–Xi summit – Any new data or forecasts on oil inventories, shipping costs and inflation, especially from Europe and the US – Statements from European leaders on energy security and support for Ukraine as the war, the oil squeeze and public budgets all collide

China’s April data came in weak again: retail sales barely grew, investment is slowing and Beijing is quietly shifting more money into social security instead of big stimulus. Markets still trade like global demand will magically stay strong while energy prices and shipping risks are rising. At some point those story lines have to meet.

The US Treasury is extending the sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil – in the middle of a war where Russia funds its missiles with exactly this money. We keep sending air defenses to Ukraine with one hand and writing cheques to the Kremlin with the other. My NAFO Fellas are doing their part by keeping public attention on Ukraine every single day – it’s time for governments to match that energy on sanctions and Russian oil.

Germany just got its AAA rating confirmed and building permits are finally ticking up again – on paper that looks like stability. But the same day, Iran seizes another security ship near the Strait of Hormuz and US gas prices keep Trump under pressure at home. Europe is betting on calm seas while the main chokepoint of the global energy system keeps flashing red.

@DeItaone No surprise there. Why would they give it up? The US does not want to do what would be needed to keep it any other way.

IRAN'S FARS SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ WOULD REMAIN UNDER IRAN'S MANAGEMENT CONTRARY TO TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT

TRUMP: IRAN WANTS TO SETTLE SO BADLY

@KobeissiLetter This shows that before the US-Iran war, Russia had cash problems. Now with Oil this expensive, they should have drastically cut back their selling of Gold.

Russia is selling its gold reserves at a rapid pace: The Bank of Russia's gold holdings dropped -900,000 ounces in the first 4 months of 2026, to 73.9 million ounces, the lowest since February 2022. Gold prices averaged ~$4,800 per ounce over the same period. Therefore, if Russia sold gold at the market price, the sales are estimated to have generated ~$4.3 billion in proceeds. Russia's central bank began reducing its gold reserves last year after the Finance Ministry liquidated gold and foreign currency assets from the National Wellbeing Fund to offset budget deficits driven by declining energy revenues. Before the pandemic, the Bank of Russia used to be one of the world’s largest official gold buyers, taking in nearly all domestically mined output until it halted purchases in early 2020. Russia is increasingly selling gold to raise cash.

@JakeSherman @AndrewDesiderio I have the feeling US politicians take a lot more days of then politicians elsewhere.

🚨🚨BREAKING NEWS: THE SENATE will go home until June, leaving the reconciliation bill unfinished. THUNE just told senators in the room. All because of the DOJ weaponization fund. House is expected to follow suit soon. me and @AndrewDesiderio

@KobeissiLetter We will see if this will be true or not. We have heard so many times that a deal is close, that I only believe it when I see it. Also, this does not mean the whole conflict is over. They still have to talk about anything nuclear, Hamas and co, as well as the missile arsenal.

BREAKING: US oil prices collapse below $96/barrel on reports that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement brokered by Pakistan. The agreement is expected to establish a "joint monitoring mechanism" in the Strait of Hormuz. Full outline of the expected terms included below.

@FirstSquawk I wonder how this point will stick in the negotiations. If there will be any at all. For now all of yesterdays big talk is hot air since we did not hear anything new.

THE OFFICIAL ADDED THERE ARE “NO NEW ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED,” AND THAT TEHRAN’S POSITION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT: IRAN WOULD DOWNBLEND THE MATERIAL ITSELF. “THAT IS THE SUBJECT OF TALKS IN THE NEXT STAGE,” THE OFFICIAL SAID.

Good morning, Europe. ☕️ Today is another day where the headlines pretend everything is calm – but the energy system isn’t. The key things to watch today: – US Jet-Fuel production is up to cover the loss if Jet-Fuel coming from the Gulf region. – US numbers on the strategic Oil storage. It is important to see if the numbers stay as high as last week or if the drain of reserves slowed down. – Any new statements from US and European leaders on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and how they plan to secure energy flows before the summer travel season really kicks in

@KobeissiLetter The famine this senseless war will produce has the potential to starve tens of millions of people. Just so Trump can redirect attention away from the Epstein Files.

Food is set to become even more expensive: World fertilizer prices have surged +44% since the start of the Iran War, to the highest since 2022. This comes as ~33% of globally traded fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. This includes 23% of global ammonia, 34% of urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly 20% of global phosphate supply. Furthermore, the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex has increased ~9% since the Iran war. The index tracks the futures prices of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cotton. In the past, world fertilizer prices have acted as a leading indicator for agricultural output prices, as rising production costs eventually force farmers to reduce supply, pushing crop prices higher. A new wave of global food inflation is imminent.

EIA: largest oil draw in history Oil: -4% Madness. (1 min chart of release below)

@KobeissiLetter The US was in the final stages 4 times by now. I will believe it when I see it. Otherwise it is just hot air to calm Oil- and Bond Markets.

BREAKING: US oil prices fall over -7% to $97/barrel after President Trump says the US is in "final stages" of talks with Iran.

@FirstSquawk If there wont be a deal soon and the strait isnt fully open in the next one to two months, we will see an oil shock for sure.

US CRUDE OIL STOCKS, INCLUDING SPR, FALL BY A RECORD AMOUNT, EIA REPORTS.

@FirstSquawk This is just another "leak" to calm Bond-Markets and Oil.

PAKISTANI ARMY CHIEF MAY VISIT IRAN TOMORROW TO ANNOUNCE THE COMPLETION OF THE FINAL VERSION OF THE TEXT OF THE AGREEMENT

Imagine if you got 1 dollar every time Trump said he delayed an attack on Iran because a deal was “close” – and later it turned out he lied. You could afford a family meal at McDonald’s by now.

@DeItaone Sure! That is why they are still able to block the Strait of Hormuz and collect a toll from ships sailing through it. Trump is such a Muppet. And MAGA buys this stuff hook line and sinker.

TRUMP: IRAN IS DECIMATED

@FirstSquawk I press "X" to doubt on this one. 🤡

TRUMP SAYS NETANYAHU WILL FOLLOW HIS LEAD.

@FirstSquawk This means Iran is now the defector owner of the strait and the US lost a massive amount of geopolitical influence. Soon the other countries around the gulf will slowly turn on the US because with Iran controlling the strait, they are under a huge amount of pressure.

IRGC NAVAL COMMAND: IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, 26 SHIPS INCLUDING OIL TANKERS, CONTAINER SHIPS, AND OTHER COMMERCIAL VESSELS PASSED THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH COORDINATION AND SECURITY PROVIDED BY THE IRGC NAVAL FORCE.