TheMintRush

@zachdcarter @matthewstoller This but unironically

This post is sponsored by Polymarket but it is NOT corrupt

@BK_McCallum @Lloydy232323 @NastyNestor69 @RyLiberty @BrokenBulletz You keep saying she hit him. I assume you are only looking at the grainy video from the house. The close up video pretty clearly shows he gets out of the way. You’re cherry-picking from the worst evidence.

@Lloydy232323 @NastyNestor69 @RyLiberty @BrokenBulletz She hit him with the car, she committed assault with a deadly weapon.

If you can step out of the way and shoot you can step out of the way and not shoot. It is hard for me to care about a crazy leftist. But they are still people. It's the second and third shot that cant be justified at all. If her intention was to attack an ICE agent with her car, she wouldn't have backed up at all. She could have just plowed over him. She backed up so she'd have enough room to turn right and leave. Below is the second shot. Is he in danger for his life?

Normal guy: Jan 6 was a violent coup and a national disgrace patrioteagle69: [grainy picture of some loser tying his shoes on the Ellipse] you mean this Jan 6? 🤣

@josephjanecka @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 It’s all good, man. Seeing now that you’re just not really cut out for understanding how this stuff works. Best of luck!

@PercivalSweetw2 @TheMintRush7 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 In fact, 538 (Nate Silverman specifically) was the only outlet saying to watch for a Trump win in 2016 if I recall - which felt entirely unbelievable at the time. The problem was it became a one trick pony and never sustained that approach or those insights.

Was sent this, so I want to clear a couple points up without rehashing the WAR wars: 1) Split Ticket's model code is not open-sourced because we are a private entity and it is our most valuable piece of intellectual property. You're obviously free to criticize that decision.🧵

@josephjanecka @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 This feels like a misunderstanding of good modeling. Their data was excellent when you compare predictions to outcome frequency.

@TheMintRush7 @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 If not, they consistently were way off base. They had great story points never supported by actual data.

@josephjanecka @PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 What’s your issue with 538? My understanding is that their probabilistic models were well-calibrated. If not, which analyst had better political models?

@PercivalSweetw2 @NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 So who gives a shit? Nate was the voice for years.

@deep_jake_ @FischerKing64 You ever consider that maybe you’re just not that bright? Feels like the Occam’s Razor here.

@FischerKing64 Sam was the first "public intellectual" I listened to regularly since pretty much the beginning of his rise. I credit him a lot for my foray into debate/first principles reasoning. I've now come to believe he's either an intelligence asset or compromised by one.

Rogan had on Bret Weinstein to discuss BW’s ideas about evolution - but towards the end Bret brought up Sam Harris, and Joe responded to Sam’s claims that the JRE podcast has damaged people:

@RealDavidRyan @blubball @minakimes @prettyboyju_ What are the odds that all the people that have studied this and know the math are on one side while you are on the other side and that YOU are right? You need an ounce of humility to consider you may be wrong here and are the one that doesn’t get it.

@blubball @minakimes @prettyboyju_ The best strategy is the one that can possibly make a 2 score game a 2 score game, instead of a 1 score game, that’s what they don’t get

If you try at the end and fail, the game is over If you try now and fail, you know you need an onside kick to stay alive Which are you choosing?

@MarchettiT @gregolsen88 Your math just assumes the conclusion ahead of time. Half the time it’s 7pts, half the time it’s 9pts. If you kick the XP then miss the 2pt, you have 0 time and game is over. Your logic is equivalent to preferring to close your eyes than knowing your odds.

@gregolsen88 8pts at 43% 1 score game is lightyears better in odds than 9pts which is a 0% one possession. Add in the lack of time for the extra possession and kicking XP should be a no-brainer.

The premise of the 2pt conversation is we have been beaten over the head with the notion being down 8 is a 1 possession game. We need to educate the way the game is played 7pts- 1 score game 94% of the time 8pts- 1 score game 43% of the time Treat 8 pts as 2 possessions. Cleans it up

@Owensaurus_88 @purpledrank0 @gregolsen88 It’s not binary. Down 8 is a 1.5 possession game. Down 7 is 0.97 possession game, or effectively 1. You can’t round the 1.5 down to 1. Half the time it’s not 1 score.

@purpledrank0 @gregolsen88 That is illogical

Assuming kick the EP and go down 8 (he missed earlier EP), you may still need 2 possessions (8 is not 1 score) If you fail the 2 pt try the game is over. Bc u treated as a 1 possession game when its not Also, my odds of a coin being heads is greater flipping it twice than once.

@AdamKoffler Because it’s the right decision footballperspective.com/trailing-by-15…

Why’d they go for two!?

@brandon_lighty @JohnPeric159923 @Himedanshi2199 @KibrGual @sandmansanch711 Replies have offered several notable examples at you (Austin, Tokyo, Auckland, Zurich) and your response is that you personally take issue with each study. Kinda sounds like you don’t want it to be true…

@serpunketh @RichardHanania They need to spend a significant amount on childcare. I looked up avg cost in PA for a rough idea of natl avg: Seeing $10-12k per kid ($20-24k for two). That’s 1/3 less than his number and only for a few years. The avg family of 4 earns ~$125k. They aren’t all poor.

@TheMintRush7 @RichardHanania If both parents are working , and they don’t have near by family. What do they do? How much do they pay?

Jesus Christ this trash article made its way into the Free Press.

@serpunketh @RichardHanania It’s a reasonable idea but does not stand up to scrutiny. He’s basically redefining the poverty line as like the 70th percentile. The average family of four is not paying $32k/yr for child care.

@RichardHanania Haven’t seen one person able to refute its claims

@BillJulian12 @cremieuxrecueil You mean the places where the people live? The horror!

@cremieuxrecueil It’s really 15 big cities trying to tell the rest of us how to live.

Properly shading each state based on 2024 election results, the U.S. is a far more purple place than typical red and blue maps make it appear.

@Neorio12321 @cremieuxrecueil “And what’s the map look like when you remove the people I don’t like?”

@cremieuxrecueil And what's the map look like when you remove the low income neighborhoods from major cities?

@TonyB348 @cremieuxrecueil Even better map

@cremieuxrecueil Better map

@calijawn @besttrousers Yes, $8k median in their transaction accounts

@besttrousers Not $8K "in their checking account" #ReadingIsFundamental

The median household in the United States has $8,000 in their checking account, owns their home, and has a net worth of $193,000.

@FewSecrets @besttrousers Luckily 40%+ own their home with no mortgage

@besttrousers You aren't a homeowner until your mortgage is paid off.

@eaccocortex @besttrousers ~40% of homes are mortgage-free