The Real Chudz

hiring is impossible BECAUSE it's so easy to apply finding a relationship is impossible BECAUSE new dates are a swipe away getting into university is hard BECAUSE you can CommonApp apply to 50 at once convenience is washing away friction that actually carried a lot of signal

@Jkylebass @KenRoth Cmon man. NK and Pakistan have had nukes. Why haven’t they eliminated SK, India, etc? They can’t use it b/c they know it’s mutually assured destruction. Stop doing backflips to justify this stupid shit

Oh, I’d really like to hear your concrete, best-informed plan for stopping terrorist theocrats from getting their hands on 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium…material they claimed they had no intention of weaponizing…and turning it into multiple nuclear bombs. It’s easy to sit back and sneer; it’s a lot harder to offer a serious alternative.

In Trump's and Netanyahu's naive best-case-scenario planning, their bombing would encourage the Iranian people to overthrow their dictatorship. But the despots just slaughtered 7,000+ protesters. Iranians were reluctant to risk their mass murder again. trib.al/sqZjeIf

@bowtiedmeathead Sales sales sales. But she needs to be a hustler. Recruiting firms (“selling” people) will hire her easily if she is social / attractive / charming. Can make a killing (seven figures believe it or not ) if you’re top 1%

My wife and I were talking the other day about potential career options for my 15 yrs old daughter who really struggles in school and is likely not college bound/material. For guys it’s easy… Don’t want to go to college, pick a trade or figure something else out such as a police officer, firefighter etc. It’s not as easy for girls. I think she would do well in sales since she is attractive, has the personality and is extremely social (spends hours everyday talking on the phone to all her friends). For parents with daughters who aren’t on the college path…what are some real, high-income career options you’ve seen work?

@Keith_Wasserman How do you think I about this in the context of 1) population growth in California is going negative AND it’s the well off that are leaving, 2) the continued decline in Hollywood-related employment that shows no signs of improving

Best time to acquire multifamily properties since I started Gelt in 2009.

@DanielSLoeb1 @altcap @theallinpod Get lipoprotein (a) and ApoB tests done. Very easy. Consider PCSK9 inhibitor (Repatha) if you need to be on a high dose (20mg+) of statins that give you any side effects that are annoying

@altcap @theallinpod Great advice Brad and get a Colonoscopy at 40 not 50 or 45 as guidelines were changed to.

This summer on #136 of @theallinpod, I hijacked science corner to discuss heart health. I suggested everybody over 40 do a Calcium CT Scan & if your score is non-zero you should likely be taking a statin. Many have shared ++ stories how this impacted them, so wanted to follow up. Heart disease is the number one killer in the US - accounting for 25% of all deaths. And unlike many causes of death, it is largely preventable. But we do a lousy job of education / prevention - which leads to people learning about the problem after it is too late. So what did I learn, what am I doing, and what are the Besties advising each other? First, data is power. And most of us have bad data. The common refrain I hear when I ask friends over 40 what they are doing to avoid heart disease - “I am good, my cholesterol is low.” And why not? We have been trained by doctors to believe that cholesterol is the magic biomarker that determines whether you will have a heart attack. WRONG. Approx 75% of individuals who experience heart attacks have normal or low LDL cholesterol levels. So it is true that cholesterol plays a significant role in the formation of arterial plaque - but don’t take false comfort in your cholesterol scores - they don’t look inside your arteries. Get a Calcium CT Scan. This is a low dose, non invasive, super simple CT scan of the chest that takes about 5 mins and costs $300-500. It DOES look inside your arteries and tells you much more definitively whether or not you have calcium (aka plaque) that may cause a heart attack. Your doctor may tell you that this is not required since you are healthy & have low cholesterol. Thank them & schedule it anyway - it may save your life. A calcium score (CAC) score of zero means no calcium; 1-10 is considered low, 10-100 moderate, and so on. So what did I find? I am fit (low body fat index), exercise routinely, eat healthy and have had generally low cholesterol with my LDLs slowly going up to 130 in the last couple years (maybe as a result of my protein heavy diet). My CAC was zero in all arteries but 77 or moderate in my LDA (the left descending artery). What next? Fortunately, I was able to learn from two leading cardiologists. What do they do for themselves, their family & friends? They agreed that cholesterol readings alone are an insufficient standard of prevention. Their standard? A CT Calcium Scan over the age of 40 - and if the reading is non-zero, they immediately prescribe a statin under the theory that statins are incredibly safe and reduce future plaque build up by inhibiting a key enzyme in the liver critical to the production of LDL cholesterol. So I immediately started 10 mg of Crestor daily (zero side effects) and within 7 weeks my LDL dropped from 130 to 75 (optimal) with zero changes to diet. The end? For many - yes - and they advised me that this along w staying fit would already make a BIG difference in reducing future plaque build up and avoiding problems. But was there more to learn? Yes. It turns out that not all plaque is equally bad - soft plaque is the most dangerous; intermediate less so, and hardened plaque is good. To learn more I did a Contrast-Enhanced CT Scan - which took about 25 mins and helped visualize different types of plaque. While they saw that most of it was hardened, we leveraged a new technology pioneered by Dr. Jim Min and his company @Cleerlyhealth that is using AI to statistically analyze the pixels in the Contrast CT. The determination was much more precise - 114 units of plaque (below avg for men my age) split evenly between hardened plaque and intermediate plaque. Zero of the soft plaque. Their new goal for me? Zero new plaque by driving LDLs down w/ the use of statins. And over 2-3 yrs seeing the intermediate plaque calcify naturally to hardened plaque so that I am effectively back to zero bad plaque. And the best part - we now have the picture & data to track the progress.

@heynavtoor lol u fuckin scam pos

🚨 Hedge fund managers are going to hate this. Someone just open sourced a system that does their entire job. 30.5% annualized returns. $0 in fees. It's called TradingAgents. Not one AI agent. An entire simulated trading firm. Analysts, researchers, traders, and risk managers. All AI. All arguing with each other before making a single trade. No Bloomberg Terminal. No $50K data feeds. No MBA required. Here's what's inside this thing: → 4 AI analysts scanning financials, news, social sentiment, and technicals → A Bull and Bear researcher that literally debate each other → A trader that synthesizes every argument into a final call → A risk management team that can veto any trade → A fund manager that approves or rejects execution Here's the wildest part: It beat every traditional trading strategy they benchmarked. Cumulative returns. Sharpe ratio. Max drawdown. All of them. Hedge funds charge 2% management + 20% performance fees for this exact workflow. This is free. 100% Open Source.

@BarryRoland19 @_Kesh_Money Just put a very cheap flow monitor on your main meter. Check out flume. Works well. has caught many leaks / open taps etc for me. No need to spend hrs of a plumbers time “looking” if you don’t even know if you have one. Also just look at ur bill - volume and price are disclosed.

@_Kesh_Money Dude I've sent my plumber to this address like 6 times in the last few years. Can't find anything. Every single fixture is low-flow energy-efficient BS, installed in the last 5 years. It's bizarre.

You, a genius and a very honest operator: Utilities in Los Angeles will probably grow at about 3% a year on average during the hold period. LADWP: *ehem* a month

@chamath E. Stop capping

If I hypothetically owned an American resource with 5m oz of gold should I:

@Jason Bro cmon, you yourself have privately said he’s a fuckin fool who loves to hear himself talk. But yeah he’s mostly correct on this…. But you’re wrong his views are not too contrarian. Even he himself calls them obvious

Balaji might seem out there at times, but he’s almost always just 6 months and 60% ahead of the consensus

@BarryRoland19 Do the opposite. When you ask for PEX, he’ll pass you the material savings (maybe) but he’ll be “anchored” on his previous profit dollars. Start with PEX and then say “uh oh man I don’t know if it’s in my budget but whats the VERY least you could upcharge for copper”

One of my favorite negotiation "tactics" is controlling the flow of information. Say I'm planning on doing a full re-pipe of an apartment building. I'll typically ask my contractor to bid out just the most expensive option (usually copper), instead of asking him to bid numerous materials (like copper and PEX) simultaneously. Why? I don't want him to narrow the gap between the two, padding the one he'd rather not do, and essentially steering me towards the one he prefers. I'm also establishing a ceiling. The PEX should not be more expensive. If it is, then the copper is easily the value play. If it's cheaper, now I have two real options. Never give your counter-party a built-in way to game the comparison.

@rabois @ianbremmer Objectively, Keith, ask yourself who is the real clown

@ianbremmer You are a clown.

nothing like a disastrous war to make an american president realize the value of multilateralism

@rabois @bourscheid Objectively, Keith, ask yourself who is more embarrassing

@bourscheid you are an embarrassment.

#BREAKING: Senior White House staff are saying Trump is regretting the decision to strike Iran, having assumed being a wartime president would result in the same 80%+ approval ratings GWB received. Sending our troops to die for poll numbers. Unbelievable.

@DanielSLoeb1 Dan, I am genuinely fascinated that you could possibly get anything of value from this idiot Chamath, particularly when it comes to public market investing. The VC game is based on access so maybe he can be helpful to you there!?

A wise man poetically described it as the “time bounded valuation of an enterprise” Who knows with MacroHard and human emulation not to mention terrestrial data centers, it’s hard to know what to wear in the morning let alone how to value an enterprise 3-5 years out even with strong current cash flows and an apparent “moat”.

@pati_marins64 Pati - what do you make of the statement by Iran that non-US, non-Israeli, tankers may now proceed through the Strait. Does that not seem like a de-escalation? The markets on Monday should react positively to these statements.

Desperation is taking hold, and nukes are not off the table. The US and Israel are descending into desperation, to the point where the nuclear option is now being openly mentioned. Those who claimed Russia and Ukraine would lead to nuclear war, that never materialized in four years. Yet in Iran’s case, the situation is escalating rapidly. Iran has waged an asymmetric war with impressive precision and few errors. It has expended much of its limited arsenal in the process, while successfully opening a corridor for heavy missiles striking Israel directly. Israel is now nearly out of interceptors. A publication in an Israeli newspaper reports that one of Trump’s top advisors is warning that Israel may have to consider nuclear weapons. x.com/haaretzcom/sta… Why is this such a major danger? Because there is deep suspicion that Iran has already developed a small number of warheads. Its nuclear facilities have gone uninspected for many months following the 12-day war. Obviously, with so few warheads, Iran will not announce it, doing so would risk a preventive nuclear strike. But if attacked, we could face nuclear retaliation and an all-out nuclear war. I recently wrote about this here: x.com/pati_marins64/…

@Villgecrazylady @LindseyGrahamSC Mel, this is the only rational move at this stage. Forget about the past, what would you have them do from here on out

@LindseyGrahamSC It’s not an “attempt.” The strait is literally closed. And Trump destroying their refining capacity isn’t going to change that. You psychopaths are destroying the world economy AND the American dollar in real time. You should all be arrested and tried for treason.

Iran’s attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz is done at its own peril. President Trump’s decision to take the war to Kharg Island - the crown jewel of Iran’s oil and gas economy - was necessary, bold and in my view, highly effective. This will help shorten the war. Seldom in warfare does an enemy provide you a single target like Kharg Island that could dramatically alter the outcome of the conflict. If Iran loses control or the ability to operate its oil infrastructure from Kharg Island, its economy is annihilated. He who controls Kharg Island, controls the destiny of this war. Semper Fi.

@alt_w_v_g Alex I’ll take $400 for things that never happened but are funny stories anyway

Had a parent-teacher conference this morning My wife told me not to come I came anyway She said "please just listen and nod" I said "I always listen" She said "you listen like you're sitting in a boardroom looking for something to challenge" That's how listening works Nice classroom Small chairs I am 6'4" and was seated at a desk designed for someone who still believes in Santa Claus My knees touched my chest The teacher introduced herself Shared her identified pronouns I shared my identified adjectives Smart and handsome My wife closed her eyes The teacher had a folder Color-coded tabs I respected the organization She said our son is "a pleasure to have in class" My wife smiled I waited That sentence is never the whole report It's the executive summary before the risk section She said "however" There it is She said he "asks a lot of questions" I said "good" She said "during quiet time" I said "when is quiet time?" She said "it's when students are expected to work independently and in silence" I said "so he's the only one trying to get information and you've structured the environment to prevent it?" My wife put her hand on my arm I continued The teacher said he recently told another student that "sharing pencils doesn't make sense if nobody brings their own" I said "that's an accurate observation" My wife squeezed harder The teacher said she's concerned about his "resistance to group activities" I said "he's not resistant. He just doesn't see the value of doing more work for the same grade." The teacher said he also corrected her math on the whiteboard I said "was he right?" She paused She said "that's not the point" I said "it's a little bit the point" My wife stood up Sat back down Compromise The teacher pulled out an evaluation sheet Categories like "works well with others" and "follows directions" and "respects classroom norms" All subjective Not a number on the page I asked how these are graded She said "based on observation" I said "so one person's opinion with no second review?" She said "it's professional judgment" I said "my auditors say that too. Right before I disagree with them." She looked at my wife My wife said "I'm sorry about him" I said "I'm sitting right here" My wife said "I know" The teacher said overall he's a bright kid and she just wants to make sure he learns to "collaborate" I said "collaboration is important. But so is recognizing when you're the only one doing the work. He'll learn that again in college. And again in the real world. Might as well start now." Nobody spoke The teacher closed her folder She said "I think we've covered everything" I said "one more thing" She braced herself I said "his reading is above grade level. His math is strong. He asks hard questions and corrects mistakes when he sees them. I just want to make sure this school knows what it has." The teacher looked at me differently My wife looked at me differently I said "that's all" We left In the car my wife was quiet Then she said "he's turning into you" I said "is that a good thing?" She didn't answer From the backseat he said "dad, why does the teacher count off for asking questions? Isn't that the whole point of school?" I looked at my wife She looked out the window I said "yes. It is." He said "I don't think she likes when I'm right" I didn't say anything Neither did my wife Small chairs Color-coded tabs No follow-up items But the kid's going to be fine Sent from my iPhone

@GeorgeP36561323 @moseskagan @Romy_Holland If you’ve spent 18 yrs holding ur kids to a very high bar of excellence and work ethic, leaving them a $400K house or $4 million rental property is NOT going to lead to entitlement. If you’ve spent 18 yrs permissively parenting or just in absentia, then yeah look out

It's how you help that matters. Gifting large sums of money can lead to entitlement. There are constructive ways to helpe: - Pay for college. - Create a job and or business for them. - Hire them to work your business. - Finance their first home or help with the down payment. I've never looked at wealth as being just for my wife and me. I look at it as a family thing. Setting your kids up for success by investing in them increases familial wealth.

i don’t feel like my parents owe me any inheritance and would be happy for them if they had fun spending all of their retirement savings. but i also feel really good about the prospect of leaving my own children money that would make their lives easier, and thru this lens the boomer behavior of taking cruises while your kids are struggling to afford daycare and houses and stuff seems strange. like maybe when my baby is grown up i’ll feel differently, but i doubt it? i find myself wanting to promise him that as long as i live i want to help him and be there for him.

@LyndonTucker @moseskagan @MattSeedorff Yeah but 1) prop taxes don’t go up much , and 2) are not progressive. Income taxes are pay every paycheck, or every qtr AND are progressive. If more ppl had to pay progressive income taxes, they would care more Sales tax is a constant reminder but it is not progressive.

@TheRealChudz @moseskagan @MattSeedorff half of the city lives in homes they own, property taxes are a real number unless you've been there since the 80s

NEW: A former Ramada Inn bought to quickly house people experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles has now sat vacant for nearly 4 years. The cost has since climbed to about $20 million for what will be 32 units of supportive housing.

@DDInvesting @OctusCredit Explain exactly why, in equivalent detail, WHY Citrini is wrong re: the majority of software companies.

My take: The best opportunity in the market is setting up a fund/vehicle to buy dislocated private credit loans from forced sellers. My credentials: I run the leading information and data provider on the global credit markets (@OctusCredit). I was buying bank debt in the 60s in the fall of 2008 that eventually refi'd at par, including from the Lehman desk auction. I am very bullish on software and think the Citrini thesis is flawed. I reached out to them to debate me on our podcast. Two quotes from Seth Klarman have guided my investing for over 20 years: 1) "My experience is that when people want to give something away at a ridiculous price because they have to, not because they want to, that’s a good time to buy." 2) "The best opportunities for value investors often arise when other investors are forced to sell, regardless of price." Over the past couple of weeks, headlines have rolled in about redemptions coming from public and private credit funds: ""Morgan Stanley Limits Redemptions at $7.6B North Haven Fund After Withdrawal Requests Hit 11%" (March 12, 2026)" "Cliffwater Limits Repurchases to 7% After Record 14% of Investors Seek Exit From $33B Flagship" "Blue Owl Gates OBDC II as Hedge Funds Circle With 35% Discount Buyout Offers" (March 10, 2026) Another headline: "Private Credit ETFs Plunge 18% in Two Weeks as 'Gating' Fears Spread to Publicly Traded Vehicles" I believe these headlines will continue. Investors should get used to them. Or as George Soros' concept of reflexivity: our perceptions of reality don’t just reflect reality—they actively change it. Or in steps... 1. The Bias Investors believe private credit is a "magic" asset class: high yields with low volatility. They assume "semi-liquid" funds mean they can always get their cash back quarterly. 2. The Action A $1.7 trillion wall of cash pours in. This massive liquidity makes the underlying borrowers (software companies) look healthier than they are, "validating" the initial bias. 3. The Pivot AI threats / Citrini thesis emerge. A few "smart money" investors doubt the fund valuations and submit redemption requests to test the exit. 4. The Spiral Funds hit their 5% withdrawal caps and "gate" the doors. This act of self-preservation signals "danger" to the rest of the herd, turning a small exit into a mass panic. 5. The New Reality The perception of a "safe haven" has been reflexively destroyed. The asset is now a liquidity trap, creating the "forced sellers" that Seth Klarman waits for. Soros once wrote: "Financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time; sometimes it’s quite negligible, at other times it is quite pronounced." If redemptions still continue and private credit is considered an asset to avoid, more investors will ask for their money back. And more funds will be forced to sell assets inside these funds. The underlying businesses haven't changed. The huge cash equity checks beneath these loans haven't changed (Yes LTV has changed because multiples have compressed but cash is still there). The maturity profile hasn't changed. Revolvers are still available. The one thing that has changed is the reflexivity of the new reality and people are rushing for the doors in an illiquid market = buying opportunity. Here is some simple math: If you buy a loan at 90, with a SOFR + 500 floating rate coupon that matures/refis at par in 3 years your return is ~13%. If you buy a loan at 80, with a SOFR + 500 floating rate coupon that matures at par/refis in 3 years your return is ~18%. If you buy a loan at 75, with a SOFR + 500 floating rate coupon that matures/refis at par in 3 years your return is ~21%. I view these as the absolute LOW returns. I believe returns will be materially higher for 2 reasons: 1) The AI/Citrini thesis will be proven wrong shortly throughout this year as software companies report good numbers in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2) In the very off-chance you get to own the keys of these companies, buying a software company through a restructuring has the chance of MOICs over 2.0x taking into effect rights and equity discounts. All told: As I said on our podcast, I think this could be a once in a generation opportunity to buy assets with MINIMUM mid teen returns, very little chance of capital loss with potential huge upsides. I do not think an investor should BLINDLY buy everything being force sold by a private credit fund or BLINDLY buy every software company out there. But this is so overblown its creating an opportunity for the best credit investors in the world to set up vehicles to absolutely crush it. An alpha, not a beta trade. The table is being set. The smart funds are already setting up to capitalize on this opportunity as it plays out over the rest of the year.

@VijayT1609 Vijaybhai cmon yaar. This post is 50% nonsense, 50% conjecture, 50% wrong. Yes, it is 150% useless

Great explanation & sounds logical. Now you need to assume the following 1/ Mossad who is hacking traffic lights of Iran would have factored 100% of all of this in ( Hormuz, Shaheed etc) to the extent of where the Shaheeed drones are stored 2/ DJT would have at least informally consulted Elon- the smartest human being on Planet Earth, who would have also had these inputs from Mossad, CIA etc Despite this, they went into a war, which looks increasingly unwinnable Certainly there 100X more layers of complexity than what we know & possibly we need to wait for 10 more years when we get another Zero dark thirty movie