Manav Sharma

@DannyDayan5 And a recent bump from the AI investment cycle ?

Tomorrow I will release one of my most important notes to clients: Sticky Forces, explaining why fiscal policy and demographics are structural forces for inflation. This analysis is why I have said for years now that inflation will be sticky, and the neutral rate is higher.

@AahanPrometheus Interesting niche. I myself have signals that result in avg trade duration (wins) ranging from 3 days to 6 months. With wins 2x longer than losses. Play them all!

@TheRealManav007 I am generally a fan of this frequency of signals Bad for quant rockstars Bad for big macro thinkers Good for modern macro

Still in the works But here’s an interesting way to visualise signals Especially if you like the Prometheus view of the signal world

@Kacper_PK_CH 😂 too funny, and completely agree.. people who hurl insults get married to positions and don't understand the nature of market speculation (Pareto rule)

We've shorted KOSPI, never called anyone an idiot. This business doesn't have to be American Psycho.

We kept our oil stocks, like we wrote week after week. No precognition, they simply never broke the trend. Amount of insults, misinformation in the last few months, outright abusive, off the charts.

@PKycek How is the backtest performance for 2000-2018? What is the contribution of the real asset sleeve 2018 onwards?

A 20% market selloff should not automatically become a 20% portfolio drawdown. During the Q4 2018 selloff: Robuxio Equities: +0.5% S&P 500: -14.0% 60/40: -7.8% At the worst point, the S&P 500 was down -19.3%. Robuxio Equities was down -4.8%. Defensive positioning and hedging reduced market exposure while short-term strategies kept extracting returns inside the volatility. This is the beauty of having 6 uncorrelated return sleeves in your portfolio rather than relying on up only market beta. More information on the Robuxio Equities portfolio can be found below ↓

@Kacper_PK_CH Curious why looking to catch the falling knife of yen with floating narratives and BOJ interventions that have not caused a meaningful reaction? Price tells you the trend is strong.

Bank of Japan balance sheet is shrinking. They're also raising rates and encouraging money to come home. We'll see if that's enough to lift the yen, $JPY. I'm also watching their money supply. If it drops then I would expect a fast decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate. We'll just have to see and follow the trend.

@Kacper_PK_CH Brave and likely correct. Intervention sizes are not big enough for a meaningful change in trend so far. My biggest short vs USD is yen and cad from mid May

$JPY potential short trade Will likely enter today, may be final reject, so many piled up now in yen long. Now, we have full intervention and .. disappointing move.

@AahanPrometheus no german bonds?

Things you should have done Looking back on the last quarter, other than being short on energy, THE thing to do was be short volatility. In terms of intra-asset dispersion, there was more to do in fixed income (short JGBs vs anything really)

@AahanPrometheus Well said. Medium and long term uptrend remains intact for now. More rotation next week

Here are some things to think about when it comes to betting again equities: 1. Underlying GDP is steady 2. Earnings are high 3. Bond vol is coming down 4. Funding markets are showing no stress Something needs to be bad other than “prices are high”.

@Kacper_PK_CH I have 5 different TA models short from 3.25-3.30, no idea about fundamentals. But seasonality in July Aug quite negative for whatever reason

Good entry soon. I'll alert what I buy.

@AahanPrometheus Discretionary Consumption hit I guess

@TheRealManav007 I think it’s some sort oil beta

GM (Say it back) Interesting to see more red building across sectors

@profitsplusid Keep fighting the good fight 💪🏾

I think we are at a point in the precious metals industry where analysts who have a long history of attempting to stay as objective as possible, are now fed up with the marketing and sensationalism, that is cloaked as analysis and truth. In the short term, the truth unfortunately does not get nearly as much attention and is much less profitable.

@DannyDayan5 Agree. My system is modestly long nzd aud brl chf within the dollar complex. Still short jpy cad and some gbp eur

Trade Note: Kiwi Time. New Zealand is perking up, and I list the trading opportunities across rates, FX and equities in this brief trade note. dannydayan.substack.com/p/fx-trade

Why the USA will never be a football superpower. Pay to play. In England, from 10 to 16 I payed junior football. The teams were mostly started by a parent who wanted, for free, to give kids a team to play in. Those teams then joined FA sanctioned leagues ( Lichfield league, Walsall league in my case). Subs were about 50p a game ( subs are a fee for admin, pitch hire, referee). The model in England hasn't changed much, save for the fact there's fewer teams and fewer leagues. But the cheap to play model, meaning the poor and rich can play equally, holds. I'm staying with one of my best mates in Miami. Had a late night conversation 2 nights ago. 2 kids that play football. $4000 per season, per child to play for a team. Why? US junior leagues are private enterprises (shock). The US equivalent of the Football Association offers no grassroots football, no level 1 to 3 cheap badges for Moms or Dads to take so they can coach the basics, no structure locally or nationally of organised leagues, just profiteers who start up a league, charge a fortune, and if you're a poor Messi-esque talent from the wrong part of Miami, sure you can buy a ball and play on a patch of grass, but forget organised football, you can't afford it. So imagine, in a nation of 350 million, how many kids they're missing out on and will continue to after this successful World Cup for them. Money, greed, pay to play. 99.9% of greats to play the game wouldn't have made it in America. Because they couldn't afford $4000 ( plus) to play. In subs my Mom probably paid £200 total over 6 or 7 years of junior football. America, it's not all about money you know, it's about opportunity for all too. And you're pricing generation after generation out of the chance to be a part of this incredible sport you've seen first hand. To the US Federation. Do fucking better. Organise local and national junior leagues, van profiteering, offer cheap coaching badges for parents who want to give their time for free to America's kids. Football. Accessible to all.

@nickgiva1 Which is 99pct of fintwit experts/shillers

So...how are those "Warsh will cut rates, you must be stupid if you can't see that, oil is disinflating the economy, CPI will be below 2% soon, the market is completely wrong!" calls doing? Yeah...talk is cheap when you have no position. Get ready for fireworks. Just look at reals...

@HedgeDirty Refined skills in football? Oxymoron

I'm not a soccer person, but question for those who are: vs other sports, what's the relative mix of refined skills vs raw athletic talent? e.g. suppose somone who could be an NFL defensive back. At what age would he have to choose soccer instead?

@DannyDayan5 Back to the highs. Selling usdjpy seems like picking pennies, trend is too strong

@TheRealManav007 MOF said no warnings and it was enough to spook market. I covered short in morning.

I think it’s time….

@TradeQuantiX I switched from Olympic weightlifting to more athletic conditioning (to help my tennis) a couple of years ago. As I approach 50 that change has helped me regain some athletic ability. Once one has enough muscle mass, fast twitch muscles and stability should become a priority

Not my usually type of post but wanted to make it public so I’m held accountable. I just got into running a few weeks ago. I’ve been weight training for years but always neglected the higher heart rate cardio activities. I decided I wanted to become a more well rounded person in terms of health so I’ve been revamping my diet (I’ve always ate like a machine, I’m just rounding it out with even more fruits and veggies etc), implementing running (1-5 mile distances), and keeping the same weight training routine at 5 days a week (which I’ve been doing for almost 11 years). Goal is to get a sub 20 minute 5k and 5:30 mile time. We will see how long that takes. Here is where I currently am at.