The Undrafted

The back end of Round 1 of the NFL Draft is where WRs lacking elite analytical profiles go to ruin dreams and get people fired. Since 2017, eight WRs have been selected between picks 15 and 32 with a 90th-percentile or better production score in my model: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Marquise Brown CeeDee Lamb Rashod Bateman Jerry Jeudy Treylon Burks Emeka Egbuka Justin Jefferson Not all hits, but plenty of good players and three confirmed elites in that cohort. Not bad! But what about guys drafted between picks 15 and 32 with BELOW a 90th percentile production score? In order of production score: Jordan Addison N'Keal Harry Calvin Ridley Jahan Dotson Xavier Worthy DJ Moore Quentin Johnston Brandon Aiyuk Xavier Legette Zay Flowers Kadarius Toney Jalen Reagor Brian Thomas Jr. Ricky Pearsall Matthew Golden There are some good players here, but not a single superstar, and several outright busts. My thought would be that this is the area where "toolsy" players and "speedy deep threats" who lack proven production are often pulled up, or good-but-needy teams (somewhat understandably) make reaches to try to maximize their contention windows. It's also where our expectations often run high due to "elite landing spots" and "Round 1 draft capital", with the prospect profile getting lost. I call this the Crest of Disappointment. Denzel Boston, K.C. Concepcion, and Omar Cooper all now project to be drafted near this range. That doesn't mean they're all going to bust, but it does mean you should ask yourself about the reasons they're getting this level of draft capital. Is it for Calvin Ridley reasons, or Jalen Reagor reasons? Where their production scores would fit in on the above list: Boston: between Xavier Worthy and DJ Moore Concepcion and Cooper: between DJ Moore and Quentin Johnston

Announcement!!! I just wanted to let you all know what’s next for me. I am so happy to let you all know that I am starting a new venture: ‘On The Clock Fantasy Football’ I am now “Forever OTC!!” OTC Fantasy will be bringing you the very best dynasty fantasy football content on the planet!! I am partnering with some familiar faces on this one: Travis Seel - Joe Kuvetakis - Jay Wood - and many others joining me in this awesome endeavor like Stephen “Dukes” Houston and Derek Fuchs. And of course, Michael P Duncan. We are so friggin’ excited to share what we’ve got coming your way. Some stuff will remain the same - The UnDrafted and Dynasty Underground podcasts will continue as normal. And more Dynasty Tools: - AI-Powered Data Engine - Prospect Data and Comparisons - True Dynasty Market Value tool - True Value Trade Calculator And MORE I hope you’ll all come along for the ride!!!

Already a bust. The asset has already failed you.