TheComedyAct

@MariusSm1th Hey mate whats your interpretation of the monthly closure? We have not closed above any significant swing. But above the monthly bb

So many people I see on my tl expecting a dumb on Halloween 🎃 and only up again in Q1. Lets see how this plays out. Most important lvl to watch for closure besides btc is usdt.d M becoming hidden liq today! Would derisk a lot if no pump into the M lvl to invalidate it

@wandermore00 @Trader_Vantage 4.8% monthly bb or the large one above of 5.3% area?

@Thecomedyact @Trader_Vantage Below eq of the monthly I guess

$USDT.D One of the most important monthly closes is coming up on this chart. A close above it will be detrimental, leading to a much larger correction in the crypto space. Will they rescue it, or is this truly the beginning of the end? We'll find out soon enough.

@IamZeroIka Morning bro. The alts like Algo, Snx etc. ones that dont have a pair on exocharts. Is there another platform i can check their OF,

Study this content if you want to level up your trading abilities.

@IamZeroIka Just taking a look at OF on some alts like Sand, Algo. They seem to be in some sort of accumulation. Whats your thoughts?

- Macro BTC considerations - I believe it’s important at this point in the cycle to share my overall view on Bitcoin to offer a rational, data-driven perspective rather than one based on “hope.” When taking a broader look at the market, we need to examine the weekly chart. As we can clearly see, we’ve had a two-year uptrend during which a high-risk asset like Bitcoin has delivered a +700% performance from its lows. It’s natural, logical, and highly rational to think that, at this stage of the market, this long-term movement will eventually come to an end and that someone will need to provide exit liquidity before the market begins to collapse. If it still needs to be repeated: this is definitely not the time to buy BTC for the long term, nor is it the time to be overexposed with long positions. A few concrete examples, beyond the “mere” analysis in terms of overperformance, can be found in the nature of the HTF price movements. 1⃣) The long March-November range was clearly an accumulative one and this can be visible not only by the strong BO but also from the type of volumes coming in at spring phase (buyers stepping in to absorb) 2⃣) The distribution we saw in December 2024 was a first move in order to re-accumulate through a 3 drive front-running the key demand/breaker at 72K. This is an important sign because in a clean healthy environment, you don't want to frontrun those areas as orders to push to the upside are not being collected. The sell-off from 112K to 98K is a first distributive sign. 3⃣) Now observe the correlation between the last highs, the volumes and the nature of the bearish moves. Each push to the upside has been immediately utilized as a reason to unload positions from smart money and this is proven by the aggressiveness paired with increasing tick volumes. Even weekly FP points it out. The highlighted candle in the FP shows a large increase in traded volume (5.32B)paired with a negative delta (-49M). That means a massive amount of transactions took place, but selling pressure dominated: sellers were hitting the bid aggressively despite the surge in activity. In short: high activity + negative delta = aggressive selling into demand, a sign of potential exit liquidity being provided by retail buyers while smart money sell. Now there's one thing that must be taken into consideration and I believe is important in this context: the HTF MS. In the chart above I pointed out a clean downside SFP so buyers have been able to save the weekly closure and with it, the HTF MS, so we don't have a confirmed BOS that may suggest us a full reversal. We have signs but we don't have confirmations yet. What does it mean? That technically speaking we may even see another push higher, even a new high (116K is they key high to reclaim in this case) but if so, that will likely be the final push before, in my opinion, the meltdown. In this scenario there's also another and last thing to add that is meandering my mind: the last liquidation event. As we know, 19B have been liquidated and during that moment, exchanges didn't work giving no possibility to retails to buy the very bottom of the move..only smart money did and before the weekly closure. Why? 1⃣) They're gonna use it as final exit TP after the last rebound sending everything down over the coming weeks 2⃣) They're gonna use it as fuel to ignite the last move higher before the biblical collapse Personally, profits are secured with what made during the cycle till now but I still have some exposure + leverage trades in case they're gonna "send it" for the grand finale. Either ways, exciting and crucial times ahead.

@CryptoChaseCase Fantastic work pal! How you getting that chart view on exocharts?

ETH Notes: - Decision made? 1D close under PSL so a pump into level I'll Short. - ‼️1D closed under but weekly didn't yet (Mon 22 sep, 1W close👀)‼️ - Vital SL at 3350$ with liquidity directly under 🧐 - Now what level do we take for a short? Depends on timing with other majors / reaction on the levels. What levels to focus on and which to dismiss: Fixed Range Volume Finder: 2 Levels stand out and 2 levels don't make the cut (image 2) Order Flow (concept): Props to @IamZeroIka for showing OF and how to use it. This is my first time using it and I know very little so if you want to see pro use of OF: x.com/IamZeroIka/sta… My analysis of the 2 remaining levels after using FRVP: 1D OB with MTF levels: In my noob OF analysis (Image 3), I see a cluster at the bottom of the 1D OB, right where MTF levels lie. This level is VALID 5D 2x HOB: I can see some orders where the 5D HOB 2x is at, so with my current (very basic) understanding of OF, the 5D is VALID The 2 levels I dismissed with the use of the FRVP both had clusters visible on my OF analysis, They could still be potent but they just don't have the FRVP confluence. I will have to make a lot more of these posts to get better at using these 2 tools for validating levels, but look forward to using these extra ''weapons''.

@IamZeroIka Thanks brother will upgrade

@Thecomedyact Yes brother, paid version is needed otherwise you can't do anything. So I use it for refining the entries on LTF (1H) but it can also be used to have context on HTF depending on the setup.

I want to show you the reason behind my last BTC long as this can serve as a strong educational material. As you can see, after having dipped from the ATHs, the price decided to go for sweeping the previous significant lows, the ones that created the 2nd drive and the most significant area to look for also because it was matching the HTF breaker (supply flipped). Now, when an asset surges to new highs there's the risk for seeing a liquidation cascade and the dynamic can quickly evolve into a severe dump because of how forced selling interacts with market structure. As leveraged long positions start to unwind, the automatic liquidations flood the order book with sell orders and this sudden surge in selling volume overwhelms existing buy liquidity, causing the price to fall sharply through short-term support levels. Once these supports break, they often trigger additional stop-loss orders and algorithmic trades designed to protect positions, compounding the downward move. This could have been a situation in which not taking the long due to this risk, however... Before taking the trade I dived into the order flow and noticed a very favorable situation. Price was dipping with strong sell pressure clearly evident by heavy negative delta and consistent volumes, but the situation during the following hourly sessions started to change. The delta went from heavily negative to gradually neutral, and then turned increasingly positive as the sessions progressed. This shift in delta indicated that despite the continuation of selling pressure on the surface, aggressive buyers were beginning to absorb those sell orders, and this has also been confirmed by the CVD. Essentially, while the price was still showing signs of weakness, the underlying order flow suggested that sellers were losing control. The transition from a heavily negative delta to a positive one often marks a change in market intent what’s known as absorption. Large participants may start accumulating positions by passively taking in market sells without allowing price to drop further. This behavior creates a divergence between price action and delta: price may remain flat or slightly down while the delta improves, hinting that smart money is positioning for a reversal. This was my interpretation, almost impossible with price action alone.

@Salad_trades How do you plan for these levels far away. Many alerts then MO or just a small LO to be safe and monitor when we get there?

MNT waiting room

@Salad_trades Thanks mate. Much appreciated

Every trade I have a different strategy for, some MO some LO, the higher the TF the more likely I am to have a LO and that will be the full risk Im willing to take on the trade. WLD I had a LO set for a very long time. MO if I am at the screen and alerts go off and I can see the trade play out for things like this, and I will look for confluence.

Raydium musings

@CryptoChase02 So not longing any turned bullish obs? Just waiting for them to become bearish? Cheers bro

@Thecomedyact Wait for movement then pull back into bearish KLs

Watch the weekly close. To me, it looks like a clear 3 drive is forming. The amount of bullish news and FOMO appearing over the last couple of days is also a nice signal for me. The start of the bear market most likely starts in October 🐻

@mini_fibo Ah okay! Even if its a big 4D zone due to closing inside still took all/ most liquidity? Cheers mate🙏

@mini_fibo This 4D level on link before the 4D demand level

@Morrin90 What is the take away on the reason it did not work mate? Trying to reflect on it

L.

CRV HTF With ETH at WBB and near HTF hidden supply levels, USDTD near D HOB demand... Let's try some shorts. MS on CRV is pretty telling, classic lower highs and lower low's. DBB here in premium. HTF demand levels far below. I scaled in with low lev, waiting for a stab to take more of that level and then look for a more refined entry so RR is juicier.

@mini_fibo Appreciate your content mate.! . So just to confirm you are targeting the 22.5 region again for $LINK due to 4D closures below/ within the 4D BB? What makes a re-entry valid apart from closure and what would invalidate this? Besides what has been mentioned above 🫂

@fadynacci @Moneytaur_ Nice work fady. Question mate, the refined 8h,6h on Doge was taken on binance pair. Do you often check other exchanges or just stick to the one your trading on?

The @Moneytaur_ effect 4 swings on 1 asset, back to back, 4 Ws with precise entries/setups all planned ahead No i did not take the recent short, and im okay with that

@Daitaro01 Nice work pal. Whats your experience in terms of reliability of the 0.382 fib?

[Market Update] We saw a strong reaction from our entries last week on multiple assets. TPed 50% of all longs at EQ of 1W BB on ETH which got pierced through soon after. All major assets show similar signals atm with HTF demand at the EQ of their latest swings. $ETH 1D Demand & EQ of swing (-6% from CMP). Same applies to the EUR pair. $BTC Clean BOS of previous SH at $117.9k. Multiple HTF BBs are formed/about to be formed over the next few days in confluence with 0.382 fib (strong bullish trend if we react from it). Otheriwse, a daily demand just beneath it, right at the EQ of the swing. Ideally, we don't see a closure below the HTF BBs. USDT.D Clean SFP on the weekly that lead to a big drawdown to the HTF demand level. Ideally, we push up to 4.5% where sits our daily demand with EQ of swing. TOTAL2 Same concept as $ETH with the daily demand sitting right at the EQ of the swing. A pullback with a bounce from that zone would lead us to new ATHs imo. Similar structure on TOTAL and OTHERS.

@lava_xbt @R4negate Any early warning signs you seen on this?

@R4negate I was surprised it did not workout, but it is a trade I would take again

Was stopped on $ETH swing short 🤝