Thibaud Chatel

🏒📊 NEW NHLe New post to present our new NHLe: - era adjusted, recency adjusted - full network (instead of selective) Full article here thibaudchatel.substack.com/p/revisiting-n…

Texier: PLAT DU PIED SÉCURITÉ

It is with deep sadness that we share the passing of Johan Nilsson, the founder of Elite Prospects and the person whose curiosity and passion for hockey planted the seed for everything we have built together. Born on the 9th of April 1981, Johan founded Elite Prospects in December 1999 at just 18 years old. What started as a vision driven by a deep love of hockey grew into the world’s leading hockey platform, a testament to the kind of person he was. Johan had a rare combination of qualities: sharp intellect, deep knowledge, and a kindness that made everyone around him feel valued. He could dive into the most complex problems with calm and clarity, and he brought that same thoughtfulness to the people he worked with every day. For the past nine years, Johan faced a battle with colon cancer with the same calm and strength that defined everything he did. His love of hockey was never just about the game. It was about understanding it fully, honestly, and in all its detail. That drive is woven into the DNA of Elite Prospects, and it will continue to shape the future of what we do. To know Johan was to be quietly inspired by him. We are all immensely grateful that we got to work alongside someone like him. Our deepest condolences go to his family and loved ones. He will be greatly missed, by all of us and by the global hockey community. Johan leaves behind his beloved wife and two children, aged two and eight.

IT WAS 2-0!!!!

@SmartCasual__ @NLIceData One or two teams could compete with 5-6 NL teams…. And using prospects is not the right approach here as Liiga or SHL would have many national and foreign prospects. NL has none because of their import license rule. Doesn’t tell anything about the league strength as a whole.

@Thibaud_Chatel @NLIceData And top Liiga teams are on the level of top NL teams. I just used prospects evaluation as an example which shows the boarder level of play in Liiga is higher. Players outside of 1st line level from Extraliga are often one line lower in Liiga

NHLe numbers for 2026 just dropped. From our Full network NHLe model, era-adjusted, 5 years rolling by @NLIceData You can read more here (and access the methodology) thibaudchatel.substack.com/p/nhle-update-… 62 leagues are in the model, splitting the NCAA per divisions. 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

@TopDownHockey @DavidSt_Louis Be ready for comments such as « there s no way Extraliga is better than Liiga »

🔜

@PGouguet Les montées c’est surfait….

Ah bah je croyais que les clubs qui descendaient tout en bas ne remontaient jamais ?

@SmartCasual__ @NLIceData Yeah but it’s not all about prospects for the NHL. It’s about league strength taking players going up and down the hockey ladder. Top Extraliga teams are very much on top Liiga teams level. And the Liiga had huge depth issues having expanded too much.

@Thibaud_Chatel @NLIceData I guess the top players are similar maybe a slight edge to Extraliga. But the level of play and competition is higher Liiga mainly because the teams are deeper so I would put more weight on prospects scoring in Liiga

@SmartCasual__ @NLIceData Look at the pedigree of players going to Extraliga these days. Much more money now than in Liiga.

@Thibaud_Chatel @NLIceData There is no way Extraliga is better than Liiga

@avappleyard @88Dennison @Scouching @ByronMBader @TopDownHockey We have that ability (projecting any player in any league), but it’s not public. We want to do it at some point. Just lack the time.

@88Dennison @Scouching @ByronMBader @Thibaud_Chatel @TopDownHockey But for someone like me thats probably full time job for 6 months that shortens lifespan aha... sure others who have more skill could do it in far more reasonable timeframe with less effort. But guess probably have and just private. As only people who would really care? Teams.

There are a similar number of registered hockey players in Canada and the US. There are 16 teams in the top US junior hockey division, there are 61 in Canada's. 10/12 final 8 series in the CHL lasted 5 games or fewer. There were no sweeps in the USHL QF and two went 5 games.

@DansLaMusette la maison essaie de comprendre les red bull km

Jean-Paul ?

@domluszczyszyn @jonassiegel Love the « Need » there instead of forcing guys up the lineup. (Though that’s the reality on the ice)

Leafs Stanley Cup Checklist 🏆📝 with @jonassiegel What they have, what they need and how winning the draft lottery changes everything. nytimes.com/athletic/72589…

@Belizarius_ Shutov mais pas Shutout

Grosse pression de la Pologne sur son PP, mais Shutov tient la barraque.

@timoseppa @NLIceData I’d worry about small samples for a lot of european leagues. Each link would be below n=10

@Thibaud_Chatel @NLIceData Right. Then you'll need 2025-26 and 2026-27.

@timoseppa @NLIceData Only using guys playing in 2 leagues the same season is wrong imo They in majority are players not established, going back and forth, or prospects with limited role Or seniors with problems in league A transferring to league B for whatever reason Not reliable and small sample 2/2

@timoseppa @NLIceData You mean use only data from the current season? But « links » between leagues need yo be at least formed by players being in a league A in 24-25 and in a league B in 25-26. So it’s never a one season thing. 1/2

@peeachykev @NLIceData thibaudchatel.substack.com/p/nhle-for-nca… Was at 0.26 last year for points. 0.20 for Win Shares

@Thibaud_Chatel @NLIceData What would the ncaa nhle be if the divisions were combined?

@Ectoplasm97 @NLIceData NTPD players are evaluated on their games in USHL. It’s too tricky to use the other games they play against various competition. HSHS is prob around 0.05 like you say, comparing to like the AJHL.

@Thibaud_Chatel @NLIceData This is really great stuff! I’m curious where you feel the NTDP and the USHS leagues would fit in? My best guess would be that the NTDP is in the 0.22 range and USHS is in the 0.05-0.07 range, but perhaps my perception of those leagues is off. Would love to hear your thoughts.

SHL has taken over second place from AHL/KHL, with swedish hockey being on the rise in recent years (Allsvenskan also trending up). 🇨🇭NL still behind 🇨🇿 Extraliga ahead of the Liiga and DEL. NCAA and USHL also rising while Canadian junior leagues are stalling.