National Institute for Deterrence Studies

“Golden Dome is real. It is no longer theoretical. We are underway. We are shovel ready and we’re building it right now. It is reality in motion.” — Gen. Mike Guetlein, Director of Golden Dome for America

If you’d told me a few years ago this is where we’d be on Iran, I’d have said you were high: 1. Nuke program set back years. Enrichment and reprocessing gutted, weaponization sites destroyed, Fordow inoperable, Natanz in ruins, a generation of senior nuclear scientists eliminated. 2. Ballistic missile program crippled. Monthly production down from 100 to near zero. Roughly half the regime’s missiles and launchers destroyed. The IRGC Aerospace Force commander who ran the missile enterprise dead. 3. Air defenses devastated. American and Israeli airpower dominating Iranian skies, with strike aircraft operating over the country with near impunity. 4. Full economic warfare. Not just OFAC sanctions anymore, but military pressure layered on top: naval blockade, near-zero oil exports, choked imports, wrecked steel and petrochemical sectors, triple-digit inflation, and a currency that is effectively worthless. 5. Regime decapitation. Khamenei dead. Larijani dead. Hundreds of senior IRGC, intelligence, military, and Basij commanders dead including the IRGC commander-in-chief, the armed forces chief of staff, and the Aerospace Force commander. Mojtaba Khamenei inheriting a hollowed-out regime with no supreme authority and a gutted command structure. 6. The region turning on Tehran. Gulf states shutting down the sanctions-busting, money-laundering, and financial escape routes the regime has relied on for years. No Arab capital willing to throw Iran a lifeline. China and Russia providing limited support. 7. Proxy network shattered. Hezbollah and Hamas heavily degraded. Houthi political leadership taking direct Israeli strikes. The “Axis of Resistance” and “ring of fire” are now more slogans than real threats. 8. Syrian corridor severed. Assad is gone. The new government in Damascus is actively blocking Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah: arresting smugglers and publicly declaring Syria will no longer serve as a transit corridor for Tehran’s terrorists. The land bridge to the Mediterranean that took decades to build is effectively closed. 9. Lebanon pivoting west. With Hezbollah battered and resupply choked, Israel and Lebanon have opened direct peace talks for the first time since 1983, aimed at a permanent agreement and Hezbollah’s disarmament. Beirut now asserting that the Lebanese armed forces alone are responsible for national defense. This is a direct repudiation of Hezbollah’s “resistance” claim. TBD. 10. Deterrence exposed as a bluff. Four direct attacks on Israel — April 2024, October 2024, June 2025, March 2026 — failed to impose strategic cost and instead triggered heavy retaliation. Iran couldn’t even use Syria as a launchpad. 11.Economy hollowed out from within. Power shortages, water crises, factory shutdowns, pension unrest, and mass protests. Nationwide demonstrations erupted in December 2025 after a year of economic freefall, with bazaaris, oil workers, and truckers, the regime’s traditional support base, joining strikes across all 31 provinces. Running out of oil storage space. Fuel shortages. The worst crisis since 1979. 12. Scientific and technical brain drain. Beyond the nuclear experts, Iran has lost a generation of irreplaceable expertise in missile design, centrifuge engineering, and weapons development. The survivors are harder to recruit and easier to deter. 13. Naval power decimated. The regular navy shattered, IRGC navy taking growing losses as CENTCOM moves to reopen Hormuz. And against all of this: the regime forced to play its Hormuz card at its weakest possible moment when the U.S. has options instead of when we didn’t: namely, Tehran with nuclear-armed ICBMs, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, hundreds of thousands of attack drones, a fully operational terror network, and hundreds of billions of dollars to harden its economy. That’s the strategic picture. It’s extraordinary. Much more to do but I can’t comprehend how much has been achieved.

"US Sinks 17 Ships, Hits 2K Targets; Trump Says Tehran Forces Largely Knocked Out" -- the effectiveness of this "war" will benefit future USA's future war deterrence. newsmax.com/us/iran-trump/…

The fog of war can produce a lot of friction. “It’s pretty hard to mistake an F-15E for an Iranian aircraft, and particularly if they’re not maneuvering in any kind of aggressive fashion,”—A&SM airandspaceforces.com/kuwaiti-f-a-18…

At roughly 10% of the forces used to invade Iraq in 2003, this seems like a bargain. theepochtimes.com/world/50000-tr…?

@StateACN @POTUS @SecRubio Congratulations Dr Yeaw!

I'm honored to serve as Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, and grateful to @POTUS and @SecRubio for their confidence. Alongside the talented professionals of the ACN bureau, we will execute @POTUS 's mission of making America safer, stronger, and more prosperous. Stay tuned for updates on our efforts!

@MatthewKroenig @ACScowcroft Start with our NPR offering. Peace Through Strength: Renewing America’s Nuclear Deterrent A Proposed Nuclear Posture Review for 2026 thinkdeterrence.com/wp-content/upl…

Trump asked Nuclear Experts to come up with a new arms control framework. ⁦@ACScowcroft⁩ has ideas: share.google/rj57FiIqpMEWdl…

A world without the New START nuclear treaty will remain safe and stable because strategic deterrence remains effective! globalsecurityreview.com/no-treaty-no-p…

Greenland’s Strategic Reality--check out this assessment on the Greenland question. globalsecurityreview.com/can-denmark-de…

Not Part of China: An Explanation of Japan’s Taiwan Policy globalsecurityreview.com/not-part-of-ch…

What’s believed to be the first appearance in its 51-year flying history, the Boeing 747 E-4B Nightwatch, also known as the “Doomsday Plane,” showed up at LAX during Thursday’s Airline Videos Live broadcast and will most likely be the highlight of 2026!

Russian terrorists struck Lviv with what is reported to be an Oreshnik missile - Moscow’s most powerful weapon deployed in this war. What is the Oreshnik? It is a land-based long-range weapon capable of flying at hypersonic speeds and carrying multiple warheads. It was first used in combat in late 2024. This is not an ordinary cruise missile — it’s a ballistic system with a much longer range and destructive potential than most missiles russia has used so far. Ukraine currently has no air defense system that can intercept this type of missile. This is all you need to know about russia’s desire for “peace.”

@conspiracyb0t This from the richest man in the world?

Putin: "I want the ordinary citizens of Western countries to hear me." "You are being persistently told that all your current difficulties are the result of hostile actions by vicious Russia, and that you must pay for the fight against a mythical Russian threat out of your own pockets. All of this is a lie." "The truth is that the problems you are facing now are the result of years of actions by the ruling elites of your own countries—their mistakes, short-sightedness, and ambition. They do not think about how to improve your lives; they are obsessed with their own selfish interests and excessive profits." - Vladimir Putin

Reform of int'l governance is exactly what Russia/China seek--autocracies over democracies. The UN is a failed institution and should be part of any reform? x.com/i/status/20093…

"If it expires, it expires." The is the exact right response from President Trump regarding New START expiration next month. It's a treaty whose time has passed. Let it die so that we can do what we must to defend our interests & deter our adversaries. reuters.com/world/if-it-ex…

“[As] London and Paris plan to establish their own military bases in Ukraine post-ceasefire--Russia said on Jan. 8 that it would view any Western troops deployed in Ukraine as legitimate targets." theepochtimes.com/world/russia-s…

@RepDonBacon Technically, Greenland is not a member of NATO, except by its affiliation with Denmark. nato.int/en/about-us/or…

Greenland is a strong NATO ally willing to work with us to build more American bases and pursue mining agreements. Most in Greenland want to remain independent with Denmark & NATO providing protection. This approach is demeaning, creates distrust, and has no upside.

When it comes to Greenland: "Sovereignty is not a feeling. It is a bundle of responsibilities. Defense, finance, and foreign relations are the core of that bundle." americanliberty.news/commentary/den…

China’s military to conduct joint live-fire drills around the island of Taiwan, which Beijing called a “stern warning” against separatist and “external interference” forces. for the CCP, warning=coercion=deterrence & their nukes are the insurance. defensenews.com/global/asia-pa…

"China’s new nuke posture puts US on notice and world on the brink. China trading nuclear restraint for speed in new early-warning posture that will make future crises faster and far more dangerous"--Asia Times. asiatimes.com/2025/12/chinas…