Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒

Most junior preferred in the seniority rank and non-cumulative. The additional yield you’re getting just isn’t interesting to me. $STRK also has the convertibility feature that may look worthless now, but if you believe bitcoin can 10x over the long-term and it’s a perpetual option, then it’s really not that silly.

@ThomasPerfumo What is your rationale on STRD? That they could pause dividends?

The yield on STRD and STRK may never be this high again. 👀 If you are able to buy some at these prices, your yield on the investment is 14.26% and 11.38% FOREVER, plus there is upside on the equity, whereas STRC and SATA will still be $100. Know what you’re buying. I’m not sure why these preferreds sold off at the end of the day Friday. Please share if you have a hypothesis. Note the Trailing Twelve Months low is even lower, so 🤞that you can get an even better purchase price. The target floats with STRC price, but with STRC=$98.99, the yield is greater at STRK if STRK<$68.86. Monday may be interesting, since investors will have a few dats to learn these facts. Link in next tweet👇

Eh, I don't think it's a big deal going beyond bi-monthly. Straightforwardly, the mathematical dilemma they have right now is they target $99 to $101, but their dividend is nearly a full $1. So even with parity the ex-div date alone gets them to the bottom of the range. Going to twice a month payout gets you within range with a solid cushion. At that point if the stock trades at or below $99 for several days, you'll know it's more than just an ex-div issue.

@ThomasPerfumo Bi-monthly helps but doesn't fix it entirely. Move to daily and it's fixed.

The amount of people that got triggered by this post is insane. You can spend months praising Saylor and bull posting about $MSTR but the moment you disagree with something the knives come out. I still have not seen a single valid counter argument. $STRC could trade under par for the entire month but the $1 to $2 billion volume days in the run up to the ex-dividend date completely distort the VWAP picture for that month. $STRC is supposed to be as close to zero volatility and cash-like as possible. Days at par obviously matters. That is literally the aim of the product. Anyway, let's see what Saylor decides to do about the yield for next month.

Yes, I understand conceptually your concern, but what I'm communicating is: (1) The reference range is $99 to $101, not below par. (2) Only a minority of the time is it actually even trading below $99, so the VWAP concern you're describing is hypothetical. If the issue is purely ex-div arbitrage, then theoretically the issue falls away as they increase the periodicity of the dividend because instead of an ex-div of $0.96 once a month, you'll have two ex-divs of $0.48 each.

@ThomasPerfumo You can have it trade 75% of the time below $99 but the VWAP is much higher because the volume in the run up to par is 10x higher cause of the dividend arbers. Do you not see the issue here?

@ZynxBTC But their stated price range is $99 to $101. So why does it matter if it trades below $100? ✅ $99.50 is within range. ✅ $99.17 is within range. ✅ $99.01 is within range. What's relevant, to them, is when it's consistently below $99.

@ThomasPerfumo Nothing is ever a true obligation, it's all guidance. It's not about trading below $99, it's about how many days it trades below $100 and how dividend arbiters completely distort the 30-day VWAP.

There is no "mechanism" for yield changes. The Board of Directors sets and declares dividends. Their stated strategy is to target a price range of $99 to $101, but there's no obligation to tie dividend policy to VWAP. Only 16% of trading sessions in 2026 have the daily low below $99.

@ThomasPerfumo I mean there's two posts clearly explaining the point. It's about the mechanism in which the yield changes happen.

I stated earlier this week that headlines on a potential US-Iran resolution are half the picture. We need confirmation from oil markets - crude oil prices falling - to lead risk-on sentiment.

@BitmundFreud The last two bear markets were way worse.

Serious question. Was sentiment this bad during previous bear markets?

@joao_wedson This misunderstands capital markets vehicles. You deploy as you fundraise. If the market isn’t available to raise capital accretively, then capital isn’t available to deploy.

Michael Saylor and Strategy should have an average price below $30K for all the BTC accumulated so far, not close to $76K, which in my opinion is terrible. The risk/reward ratio is not being taken seriously. This massive amount of BTC should have been accumulated in 2022 and 2023, not from 2024 to 2026, when OGs were distributing like never before. Maybe it is time to look more at the data, not just fundamentals and narrative building. Even a billionaire is no match for the Bitcoin fractal.

@FinFreedom414 Probably a good move longer term. I think the disappointment is learning they didn’t issue any securities the week of May 18th to maintain the USD Reserve where it was. The rest is just negative price feeding negative narratives. x.com/thomasperfumo/…

The sentiment flip in $MSTR over the last two weeks is wild to watch. Two weeks ago people were mesmerized by $STRC and the volume of BTC purchases. Now after Saylor used cash to retire the convertible bonds, suddenly the death spiral is coming and he made a massive miscalculation. Hilarious how bi-polar this market is at the moment. What's your take?

@PunterJeff You guys catching rotation out of $STRC? 😂

Record breaking volume day for $SATA 1,011,516 shares traded. $100M + of liquidity. Tomorrow is the final record date for SATA monthly dividend before moving to Daily Dividends.

Bitcoin (bitcoin:native) sentiment is fading again, this time with equity market envy. I wrote about many of the root issues in early-February: x.com/ThomasPerfumo/…. Here's a visual to help contextualize the environment we're in. Price is actually holding up better than I'd expect.

(1) A lot of long-time Bitcoin holders who live by the 4-year cycle dipped and remain away from the market, likely for another 5-6 months, at minimum. Pure cycle timing conviction, nothing more than that. (2) A lot of discretionary crypto native investors who would otherwise bid into dips completely evaporated. Risk management was never a strong suit for a lot of these traders, and they likely lost everything. (3) Similar to 2024 and 2025, dominant flows are coming from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy. So we live in a market where the largest bidders are equity vehicles, and logically have to compete in that arena for attention/allocation. And the crypto natives who historically played an important role in day-to-day markets are substantially absent.

Still convinced something major changed underneath the surface around October 10th

I worked on the buy side perhaps during one of the most aggressive regimes for insider trading prosecution in the equities space. With the growing access, popularity, and diversity in prediction markets, three things are true: (1) People, especially early in their career, are not getting appropriate training; (2) People underestimate how sophisticated and how easily these investigations uncover this activity; and (3) Your life and career are ruined.

Bitcoin ETFs have sold $1B in BTC this month. Oil is down. Bitcoin is up. The correlation is real and it's driving markets right now. Full breakdown in this week's Macro Minute. This week’s Macro Minute with @ThomasPerfumo 👇

@zerohedge Honestly, may be onto something here...

Crypto continues to be a use of funds for the memory bubble

@dgt10011 @scottmelker You're overthinking it a bit, IMO. The 2029s and the 2030B are the only series that are trading below par, reflecting the lack of option value. The 2029s were also the largest notional ($3B) prior to this redemption. Wrote about it here: x.com/ThomasPerfumo/…

my internet was horrible today so apologies for the challenges- on the MSTR bonds q, i was sharing that there are 3 factors to assess in decision: 1) the series, 2) the amount, and 3) the price on the series, the 2029 bonds are neither the nearest dated expiry, nor the furthest nor the largest. they are however the most OTM, and the lowest cash coupon. in fact, its 300%+ or so OTM, and 0% coupon. if you believe that option is actually worthless, then paying 92 for this bond implies a total spread that is INSIDE the government spread, which would clearly defy arbitrage bound conditions. so MSTR clearly thinks that option is worth something, and that's essentially the market here but whats more telling to me is that if they think there is MV to those OTM options that they choose to retire this series versus the 28s which has more gamma given its only 10-20% OTM and nearer. it gives you a sense for what they are prioritizing, esp given that 28s becoming equity is guaranteed if 29s were also to convert. lastly the amount is noteworthy mostly in the context of the cash reserve versus pref dividends. its the most acute cash drag transformation (given 0% coupon), and would require recalculating what the BTC average growth rate has to be for the perpetual machine - not because MSTR is actually at risk - but because it forms investors what strategy's tolerance is for the assumptions behind BTC growth rate versus their ability to raise cash

Bitcoin Is Eerily Quiet As 9 Month Volatility Low Hits - Jeff Park x.com/i/broadcasts/1…