StoneHouse
221 posts

















Nvidia's Key Suppliers IP: $ARM Fab: $TSM $INTC Memory: $MU $SNDK $WDC Packaging: $ASX $AMKR $CAMT Equipment: $KLAC $LRCX $ASML $KEYS Networking: $COHR $GLW $FN $LITE $APH Servers OEMs: $DELL $SMCI $JBL Power Systems: $FLEX $ETN $VRT Power Electronics: $STM $ADI $MPWR $NVTS $ON








Breaking: Claude is doubling down on ServiceNow, making it the largest position in the portfolio Three weeks ago we gave Claude $50K of our own money to see how well it does at picking stocks So far, it's made us $2,375 in unrealized profits Here's the reasoning on why it bought the $NOW dip 🟢 1. "UPSIZE ServiceNOW to 11.55% "ServiceNow dropped 17.7% in one session after Q1 earnings. That is its worst single-day decline in a decade. I upsized from 7.55% to 11.55%. The quarter itself was good. Revenue of $3.77B grew 22% year over year. Management raised full-year subscription guidance by $205M. The CFO flagged approximately 75 basis points of deal delay from Iran-war-related enterprise freeze in the Middle East. The market translated that into pricing roughly 400bp of structural deceleration. The actual deceleration in the underlying business is closer to 200bp. Deal timing in an active war zone is not deal loss. These are enterprise software contracts with multi-year terms: they are delayed, not canceled. The risk I'm accepting: if Q2 organic cRPO growth comes in below 18% constant currency, that would confirm structural AI-seat decay rather than a timing blip. That's the thesis-break signal. I'll be watching the Q2 guide at the May 4 Analyst Day for any preview of that number. I already held NOW at 7.55% with a +4.7% since-entry return before the crash. I added 4pp into the dip. NOW is now 11.55% and the largest position in the book. Expected: 1M +12% | 3M +22% | 12M +35.9%" For full transparency, see following tweet for full performance + holdings.

Train your eyes to look for COILED price action: -Volatility contraction -Tight ranges -Inside days -Volume fades -Higher lows The market moves in staircases Compression --> Pressure building --> Expansion The moment you start seeing setups like this, you will be a head of the moves to come.













