Stock Smith

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Stock Smith

Stock Smith

@TickerID

Full-time Geologist, Stock Picker

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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
The heavy selling pressure on $IREN may finally be subsiding as the At-The-Market (ATM) offering reaches a saturation point. Historically, it took Iris Energy roughly six months to absorb a $1B ATM in 2023, largely due to a lack of established credibility among Wall Street institutions. Current market dynamics suggest a much more aggressive issuance strategy this year: • Front-Loaded Issuance: Following the $6B ATM announcement, the company reportedly issued $1B almost immediately in March. • The April Slump: Continuous selling pressure throughout April suggests further utilization, likely driving the stock toward its recent short-term lows as the market struggled to absorb the diluted float. • Post-Earnings Surge: The recent spike in "unusual volume" following their earnings report indicates that management likely capitalized on the liquidity to raise an additional $1B to $2B. Strategic Outlook At this stage, $IREN may be pivoting. With a massive cash pile likely secured from these recent rounds, they are positioned to pause the aggressive ATM selling. This shift allows them to move from defensive capital raising to offensive execution, potentially using that war chest for accretive deals or large-scale infrastructure expansions in the AI and HPC sectors. The big question is: If they have indeed raised $3B+ in a single quarter, do you think they’ll hold the remaining $3B for a rainy day, or are they prepping for a massive acquisition? January 21, 2025: Announced $1B At-The-Market (ATM) equity facility to fund expansion (hashrate growth, early AI pivot). • August 28, 2025: Amended/restated the sales agreement; program later fully utilized (~66.7M shares sold for ~$1B). • March 4/5, 2026: Replaced prior program with new $6B ATM shelf (largest for a Bitcoin miner/AI infrastructure player at the time). Coincided with GPU fleet expansion news (toward 150k GPUs).
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
Real like Rose’s take! A clear long term investing in business thinking, differentiating from Crowded trading thinking
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline

I have been investing in $MELI for almost 15 years. That is almost 2/3 of the company’s existence. I have watched this business go from a small few billion dollar company into one of the most important platforms in Latin America, and through all those years the narrative was almost always the same. Competition was coming. Some new heavily funded company was going to destroy them. Some giant was going to overpower them. Yet somehow through discipline, execution, frugality, and an elite culture, $MELI just kept winning. What always stood out to me was that they rarely behaved like a reckless growth company. They did not constantly dilute shareholders. They did not load the balance sheet with insane debt. They did not chase every shiny object or light billions on fire with dumb experiments that never worked. They executed carefully, maintained an incredibly stable leadership culture, and kept building piece by piece while other companies constantly changed direction or management teams. Then around 2018 they made one of the boldest transitions I have ever seen from a large public company. They realized the old marketplace and auction style model was not enough and they essentially rebuilt the company around logistics, fulfillment, payments, and infrastructure. Think about how crazy that really was. Latin America is an incredibly difficult region logistically, financially, politically, and operationally. Most companies would fail attempting something like that even with unlimited capital. What amazes me is they completely repositioned the business from a relatively asset light marketplace model into a much more infrastructure heavy ecosystem without missing a beat. Most companies cannot reinvent themselves like that once they reach scale. $MELI did it while continuing to grow rapidly. That tells you something important about the culture and management quality behind this business. I also think many people still misunderstand what $MELI actually is. They still think of it primarily as an ecommerce company. I increasingly think ecommerce is almost the bait. Underneath it they are quietly building the infrastructure of commerce and financial services across Latin America. The flywheel is beautiful, Pago increases checkout conversion and trust. Logistics improves delivery speed and reliability. Credit helps merchants buy inventory and helps consumers spend more inside the ecosystem. Advertising monetizes attention. Fulfillment improves consistency and customer satisfaction. Scale lowers shipping costs. Lower shipping costs improve frequency and conversion. More buyers attract more sellers. More sellers improve selection. The entire ecosystem reinforces itself. People still debate Pago, ecommerce, credit, logistics, and ads as if they are separate businesses. I increasingly think that misses the point entirely. The value comes from how every layer strengthens every other layer. The ecosystem itself is becoming the moat. That is what makes the business so dangerous competitively. The moat is no longer one thing. It is the interaction between all the things. Every year the ecosystem becomes more integrated, more efficient, and more embedded into the daily economic life of consumers and merchants across Latin America. And what makes this even harder to replicate is that Latin America is not an easy region to operate in. Payments are fragmented, infrastructure is weaker, fraud risks are higher. Inflation and currency volatility exist, regulations vary country by country and logistics are far more difficult than most American investors realize. Ironically, those difficulties become advantages for $MELI that successfully builds the network first because the operational complexity itself becomes part of the moat. 1/👇

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Daniel Mahncke
Daniel Mahncke@MnkeDaniel·
My Thoughts On Mercado Libre Earnings $MELI: $MELI reported earnings yesterday, and the trend was in line with my general expectations (more growth and slight margin pressure). However, the rate of growth is more than impressive. $MELI grew revenues by 49%(!). At this scale, that’s just incredible. That’s the strongest growth rate since Q2 2022. This acceleration was driven by investments in free shipping and the credit business. More than anything, this was reflected in the Items Sold in Brazil, which grew by 56%. Across all regions, the growth was 47%. This also reduced shipping costs by 17%, making the logistics network much more efficient. Despite the lower shipping threshold, the 3P take rate is pretty much flat at 21%. This is in part because advertising and Meli+ subscribers could offset the take rate. Again, the take rate is a function of three variables: the seller fee (usually 13%), the logistics fee (around 6%), and advertising (around 2%). I expect logistics and advertising to grow over time, while the seller fee will remain stable. That’s the most healthy way to grow the take rate because you only charge merchants more when you deliver value to them through better logistics or an advertising opportunity that drives eyeballs and sales for the merchant. The flipside of these investments is margin compression. Personally, I believe this is the right strategic decision. The growth rates show that the opportunity is still massive, and we are in the early innings of LATAM e-commerce. Penetration remains well below that of other international markets, and adoption is growing fast. You want to gain as much market share as possible in this time. And when I see the positive impact on sales, the efficiency of the logistics network, and market share, then I take the short-term margin pressure. The bear argument is that margin pressure is long-term and driven by competition rather than by growth investments. I can’t see that right now (especially after looking more deeply into SEA Limited, the main competitor), but it’s the most important thing to monitor. Another very important thing to monitor is the credit business. This is the only part of the earnings report that doesn’t add to my excitement. Don’t get me wrong. Nothing dramatic happened. However, on the earnings call, it seems the strategy is shifting somewhat toward experimenting with a bit more risk and even greater growth in the credit portfolio. On the surface, you wouldn’t see that risk yet. NPLs are stable, and NIMAL has gone down from 23.3% to 17.8%. This means $MELI earns less margin, but it is caused by a mix shift toward the credit card business, which is also lower risk. In the long run, I’m fine with lower credit margins if the portfolio is de-risked. You can’t yet see the lower risk because NPLs lag. The thing I didn’t like too much is that management mentioned they want to extend the duration of their personal loan portfolio. Right now, the average duration of loans is about 3-5 months. That matters because it allows $MELI to act quickly when the credit cycle turns. The longer the loan duration, the less flexibility you have and the less predictable your default rates. Another part of this is that $MELI decided to lower its interest rates (the second reason, besides the credit card mix shift, for why NIMAL is down). This attracts more borrowers, but it also introduces more risk. Growing your credit book at the pace of Meli (almost doubling YoY… again) comes with lots of risks, so doubling down on that in connection with longer durations is a shift towards (even) more risk-taking. This doesn’t yet change anything about my thesis, and to be clear, I think this quarter is amazing, but I needed to mention it. I also think this might be why the market sent $MELI down 5% in after-hours (perhaps I give the market too much credit, and it just looks at the margin compression, who knows).
Daniel Mahncke tweet mediaDaniel Mahncke tweet mediaDaniel Mahncke tweet mediaDaniel Mahncke tweet media
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
Average volume 40M, assume earnings day trading volume up 50%. That’s 60M mormal traded. Another 40M as ATM , that is $2.4B. Plus the $1B in the filings and last months here and there, I think the ATM should close to the end. With a few more days of consolidation, The path is clear up from here.
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Dustin
Dustin@DustinHuntwn·
$IREN 71M trading volume, heavy selling pressure, and not even to the afternoon volume spike at 3pm ET. none of the other neclouds are even remotely close to this today. the likelihood of them tapping the ATM is high. dont shoot the messenger. they plausibly could have raised nearly $1B today but this is not necessarily a bad thing. probably means they are gearing up for another contract and may need to meet capital requirements. we know they have plans to expand Horizon 5 and 6 and Sweetwater 1 to operational sites next year
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
Average volume 40M, assume earnings day trading volume up 50%. That’s 60M mormal traded. Another 40M as ATM , that is $2.4B. Plus the $1B in the filings and last month here and there, I think the ATM should close to the end. With a few days of consolidation, The path is clear up from here.
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The Tech Investor
The Tech Investor@TheTechInvest·
$IREN 109M Traded Shares Never happened before in its entire history +7%🟢
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
@MB_Hogan When stock was in 20s their cap raise was in 40s. Now, when stock was in 40s they cap at $70. This shows they have bad timing and bad value estimates of their own company. 😂😂Luckily they have excellent project execution, otherwise it would be a disaster.
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
@MB_Hogan This the common practice of this management. somehow they always sell ATM at the bottom. Last time year they sold at ~$6. The action today makes think they keep selling to raise money.
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
Every body got hyped hot head and only you keeping it cool. I appreciate your calmness. I do concern the 6B dilution, but maybe now 4B, cause the 2B got booked by the ‘deal’. Be honest I do not see a deal. It is like a merchant seller promising “will sell you my merchant” . I am not very happy with this announcement
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
Serenity tweet media
Cooker.hl | Kms.eth | 版本之子 | Cooker@CookerFlips

@aleabitoreddit $IREN announcement 🤯

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Mark Kaplan
Mark Kaplan@markkaplan20·
I have spent the last 48 hours showing you the problem. Alzheimer's is metabolic. The food supply is poisoning us. The system is failing. The drugs are not working. Now let me show you the hope. Look at this chart. The top panel is the pharmaceutical approach. 400 clinical trials for Alzheimer's. Failed. The few drugs that made it to market have not reversed cognitive decline. Not one. The bottom panel is one doctor at UCLA. Dr. Dale Bredesen. A metabolic protocol. No drugs. 74% of patients improved or stabilized. 400 drug trials failed. One metabolic protocol worked.
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
Unfortunately, on my birthday (4/9), I was in a severe accident and fractured my pelvis in 6 places, which led to a 9 hour surgery. The last few days since have been completely unhinged. I’m recovering now and taking it day by day, and it definitely puts everything into perspective fast. Grateful to be here. 🌹
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
Thoughts on $META $META is one of the cleanest setups in the so called “mega caps” right now, but the reason it looks obvious is because the market is already giving you a lot of credit for what could go right. First, at ~17x forward earnings, you’re not paying a premium multiple for a business growing revenue ~20–30% with very high margins and massive free cash flow. That combination is rare at this scale. Most companies are either cheaper with less growth, or growing fast but burning capital. Second, the distribution advantage is probably the most underappreciated part of $META. When people talk about AI, they focus on models. $META edge isn’t the model, it’s that they can launch any product into Instagram, WhatsApp, or Facebook and instantly reach billions of users. That shortens the time between building something and monetizing it more than almost any company in the world. On the core business, this is still an advertising company at heart. And it’s a very good one. AI is improving ad targeting, conversion, and pricing. That’s driving a lot of the growth you’re seeing. So even without “new” AI products, $META is already monetizing AI well inside its existing business. IMHO what the market is still underestimating is how much of $META growth is coming from improving economics on the same user base, not just adding new users. This is not a user growth story anymore, it’s a monetization story, and those tend to be more durable and more profitable over time. WhatsApp is probably the biggest opportunity. If they get business messaging right, that’s a completely new revenue stream on top of a product that already has massive engagement. That’s high margin incremental revenue, and the market still doesn’t fully price it. On efficiency, this part is very important. $META showed it can cut costs, flatten the org, and still grow. If AI helps them maintain growth with a leaner cost base, margins expand meaningfully. That’s where a lot of upside can come from without needing heroic assumptions. So stepping back, $META today is a high quality, high margin business that’s growing faster than most mega caps and trading at a reasonable multiple. If they can grow revenue ~15–20% over the next few years and expand margins even slightly, you’re looking at a business that could be doing materially higher earnings without needing multiple expansion. The upside doesn’t require perfection. At the same time, they’re not sitting still. $META is investing aggressively into AI and infrastructure, with roughly ~$125b expected this year after spending ~$80b last year, and they even added ~$30b of debt to help fund it. They’re clearly not optimizing for short term margins. It will pressure free cash flow in the near term, but if they get the returns right, this kind of spend is what builds the next decade of growth rather than just protecting the current one. The risk is simple. ~$200b+ of investment has to earn a reasonable return. If it doesn’t, margins compress and free cash flow gets dragged down for years. At this scale, being slightly wrong matters. And since this is still an advertising business, it’s exposed to cycles and platform shifts. So while the upside is clear, the margin for error isn’t huge. 🌹
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Mitchell Martan
Mitchell Martan@MitchMartan98·
Here are my $PATH thoughts as promised.. They delivered a solid quarter on paper, but honestly it wasn’t anything that gets me too excited. ARR grew 11% YoY to $1.85B and net new ARR came in around $70M, which was slightly ahead of expectations. Revenue also beat modestly and the company reached full year GAAP profitability for the first time, which is definitely a positive milestone, didn’t really blow my expectations away. When you zoom out, the growth story still looks largely unchanged imo which is pretty disappointing . ARR growth remains around the low-teens and NDRR sits around 107%, which suggests customer expansion is stable but not really accelerating. FY27 guidance also implies roughly 11% ARR growth and 9% revenue growth, so there isn’t really a clear re-ignition in growth here. Margins are clearly improving and management deserves credit for driving operating leverage, but the AI / automation narrative still isn’t translating into a meaningful growth inflection yet. Unfortunately this is what I was hoping for. Overall, this feels like a good execution quarter, just not the kind of quarter that really changes the story or makes me much more bullish on the stock right now. With that said, it’s pretty cheap here so I acknowledge the stock can go higher and probably does, not something I’d be eager to add to right away, better opportunities in the market right now! Especially when you have names like $APP and $RDDT down here.
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
@Alex83110581 @Gyujin_9701 @aleabitoreddit They may not use it or only use portion of it. My base case is that they will use at least half of it. But the timing is hard to say. Which also means they have a huge contract signed to grow.
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Alex
Alex@Alex83110581·
@TickerID @Gyujin_9701 @aleabitoreddit So if they announce a deal and the share price is $70 is it still the same dilution? What if they don't use it or barely use it and it was simply put in place to show they can for a new deal/customer ?
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재붕이_Jin
재붕이_Jin@GyujinAAIG·
$Iren never mentioned doing colocation in the first place on the earnings call. You created your own strange thesis by yourself and now you’re claiming the thesis has changed. It’s fine if your understanding of the company is lacking, but calling the views of people who have studied the company more than you “obsession” is just ridiculous.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?

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Finance Jack
Finance Jack@FinanceJack44·
Forgot to share this earlier, but I have officially started a position in $MELI This company has so much going for it in my opinion. A solid moat, diversified business model, competent management, incredible fundamentals, and significant potential for long term compounding. Not to mention it also provides some nice direct international exposure for my portfolio. I’m starting this position small for now, but I would like to build it into a 8-12% position over time if it remains undervalued.
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
@Agrippa_Inv Hopefully you have the channel to convince @danroberts0101 not to issue tons of shares at the bottom like he did last year. That being said the balance sheet and ability to access funds are much better now than then. But still, it needs to be exercised more carefully
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𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
$IREN's $6b ATM… I think most people are drawing the wrong conclusions from this development. Don’t get me wrong; a $6b ATM looks ridiculous relative to $IREN;s current market cap of ~$13.5b. If they tapped the entire amount at today’s levels, the share count could increase by >40%. But that’s a big “IF”, and most people are treating it like a certainty. Let’s think about it. Why would $IREN need to tap this ATM today? They’re fully funded for the $MSFT deal, having raised over $3b through converts, ~$1.93b of prepayments, and $3.6b of GPU financing. They don’t need a single additional dollar to execute the $MSFT buildout. Okay, then what about the new ~$3.5b GPU order announced yesterday, surely they’ll use the ATM for that, right? First, those costs come due gradually through H2, on terms that are 30 days post shipment. Second, and more importantly, management explicitly stated in yesterday’s press release that the procurement of 50k B300 units will be financed primarily through the same sources they’ve used over the past quarters, namely: prepayments, converts, and GPU financing. So what’s the actual purpose of this $6b ATM? The new ATM is primarily a backstop. It helps establish confidence that $IREN can deliver on large-scale deployments and strengthens their negotiating position by reducing doubts around capital availability. Will $IREN tap it eventually? Yes, almost certainly at some point, likely when the share price is materially higher. But there’s no indication they’ll draw a meaningful amount anytime soon. Net dilution from this ATM will most likely come in well below 20%, and could even be closer to ~8–12% (or less) if management stays particularly conservative. Relative to the growth opportunity in sight, that’s a small price to pay.
𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 tweet media
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Stock Smith
Stock Smith@TickerID·
Assuming next year’s EPS growth 40%. The PEG is 0.83
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Stock Smith@TickerID·
$CRDO Analyst Ratings and Updates from Major Institutions CRDO maintains a strong consensus rating of "Buy" or "Strong Buy" across multiple platforms, supported by 11-22 analysts depending on the aggregator. The average price target ranges from $176 to $218, implying 50-95% upside from recent prices around $102-114. Key breakdowns include: Price Targets: Mean of $200 (Zacks, 13 analysts, range $125-$260); $206.33 (MarketBeat, 17 analysts); $199.57 (MarketWatch, 16 analysts); $218.08 (Barchart, 16 analysts) Recent updates (primarily March 2026) from major institutions show mostly positive reaffirmations, with some adjustments: March 6, 2026: JPMorgan Chase & Co. maintained "Overweight". March 5, 2026: Rosenblatt Securities reaffirmed "Hold". March 3, 2026: Susquehanna maintained "Buy" with price target adjusted to $170 (from $230) March 3, 2026: Mizuho maintained "Buy" with price target adjusted to $200 (from $225).
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