TickerTango

I've decided to start a Substack to write about my favourite tech stocks. The first deep dive on $U can be found here, completely free to read: tickertango.substack.com/p/unity-a-cont…

$DLO's recently announced dividend might be more interesting than it first appears, especially for European investors like me in Belgium. Most foreign dividend stocks are a double tax trap: withholding tax at source (typically 10–15%), followed by Belgium's 30% withholding tax on the gross dividend. Stack those together and you're often left with barely half of what was originally distributed. dLocal is structurally different. It's incorporated in Uruguay and trades as actual Class A common shares on NASDAQ, not as an ADR. That matters, because ADR holders are effectively holding US instruments, which brings US withholding tax into the picture. Additionally, Uruguay taxes on a territorial basis, meaning only domestically-sourced income is subject to corporate tax. Dividends derived from foreign-source income are exempt from the standard 7% withholding for non-residents. Given that dLocal's business is almost entirely cross-border payments in emerging markets, the bulk of its earnings likely qualifies as foreign-sourced, which implies nearly 0% withholding at source. The result for a Belgian investor: a total tax burden of around 30% instead of the 45% you'd typically face on US or many other foreign stocks.

@JasperDLT Just for your information: FCF is one of the worst metrics to look at when it comes to $MELI and other companies that operate digital wallets or provide credit, as it can give a distorted view due to: - Non-cash charges - Changes in credit renewals - Customer deposits

Vandaag hebben we onze analyse over MercadoLibre | $MELI geplaatst. Een update naar aanleiding van de earnings. Het is een vreemd verhaal. Je mag $MELI gerust één van de meest kwalitatieve bedrijven van Latijns-Amerika noemen. - Al meer dan 28 kwartalen op rij meer dan 30% omzetgroei. Waanzinnig. - Ze trekken alle lessen uit de Amazon-handleiding: nu marges inleveren om straks vanuit schaalvoordeel te profiteren. Toch lijken beleggers niet echt onder de indruk. De koers daalde 33% vanaf de top. Daar zijn ook redenen voor: concurrentie van Shopee, lagere marges en de angst dat hun marktaandeel op termijn onder druk komt te staan. Hierdoor is het aandeel nu historisch goedkoop op basis van Forward P/E en Forward EV/FCF. Toch zie ik dat het management de juiste stappen neemt, waardoor ik mij er als aandeelhouder op dit moment niet direct zorgen over zou maken. Als ik in één bedrijf in Latijns-Amerika zou moeten beleggen, dan is het $MELI. Hele analyse is te lezen voor onze PLUS-leden van @delangetermijn.

Guggenheim on $RBRK Rubrik reported strong F4Q26 results across all metrics and guided well above the Street for F1Q27 and FY27. Results and guidance were also better than Buy Side expectations according to our TMT desk. Rubrik sits in rarified air in the Software space, growing adjusted revenue greater than 40% and ARR greater than 30%, and we expect hyper growth to continue for the foreseeable future. Rubrik redefined its core market of Backup & Recovery, not only with a new modern architecture that was needed because of shifts in the IT infrastructure of the world, but it also expanded it beyond its traditional boundaries to include security against Ransomware to what became a Cyberresilience platform. And it is now doing it again from an Identity perspective, as embedded in the fabric of this company are two important characteristics: (1) it observes and listens to what the needs of its customers are and (2) it has a culture of continuous innovation. It is now applying this approach to the evolving needs around AI, which will likely require enterprises to adjust how they accommodate this shift in the IT infrastructure of the world, not simply by modifying old technology, but by applying new ideas to a radically new paradigm. Within Software, there will likely be many CAs that cannot extend into this next paradigm or at the very least, cease being leaders of their respective realms as their relevance stalls, and there will be some that can make the transition, but “transition” is probably too soft a word – they’ll have to have the right DNA … like the DNA of Rubrik. We remain Buy with a $110 PT

$RBRK wow this is a +20% type of report (barring macro/war stuff) 1/

$SE

$SE and $MELI shares after Q4 results

Just published my $SE Q4 2025 Earnings Review: I cover all 3 segments, management commentary and my personal thoughts on the selloff. gabgrowth.com/p/sea-limited-…

$XYZ – Q4 Analyst Commentary Citi analyst Bryan Keane • Points to 40% RIF announcement on GenAI efficiencies driving GP growth and significantly increasing operating margins, +600bps y/y in 2026 • Notes commentary indicated a step up in GenAI capacity, notably in December, as they decided to move early • Points out management believes the scale of the change likely won’t be disruptive to productivity with an uptick probable from an increasingly agile organization • Acknowledges execution risk, however, sees prepared for CashApp acceleration while revitalizing Square, likely compressing GPV and GP growth gap in the latter part of the year • Target $85 - implies 9.5x 2027 EBITDA; maintains Buy KeyBanc analyst Andrew Schmidt • Highlights beat and raise with transformation announcement • Points to CashApp leading as Q4 gross profit and adj. operating income were ahead • Notes material RIF as FY26 gross profit and operating income guides were raised, feels outlook is judicious • Recognizes NT execution risk given scale and pace of changes, however, sees update benefitting scale and agility • Sees differentiation in AI enabled platform innovation • Target $95; maintains Overweight Needham analyst Mayank Tandon - raises target • Calls out solid Q4 result as gross profit, adj. operating income, and EPS were all ahead • Highlights material restructuring inclusive of a 40% RIF targeting an increasingly AI-native operating model • Points to continuity of increasing pace of positive trends in core business with Cash App gross profit +33% y/y led by solid lending growth and deepening engagement • Credits momentum and reduced costs as FY26 outlook was materially increased • Target $90 from $80 - based on ~10x FY27 EBITDA; maintains Buy RBC Capital Markets analyst Daniel R. Perlin • Highlights magnitude of surprise in 40% RIF announcement • Sees investors questioning if the cuts are truly AI driven or legacy bloat, thinks likely both, while also noting recent history of reductions in headcount • Notes operating profit at Visa ~$1M vs XYZ updated headcount and guide indicating ~$500K • Feels continuity of growth and efficiency, as revised guide points to >50% y/y growth in adj. operating income, indicates growth likely to persist • Target $90 - based on ~4.5x FY26 gross profit; maintains Outperform

@championswimmer @saketme

@saketme Yeah man, what a golden era of OSS tools with outsized impact from Square. Java Kotlin and Android ecosystems would just simply not be the same without it. So sad to see it all coming to an end.

$RBRK CEO @bipulsinha "We started working on the whole cyber resilience capabilities in 2016, but the market came around in 2019. We had to wait for the market to recognize it. But you have to be ahead of the market, and this is where, again, you have to have non-consensus ideas: How do you bring a unique perspective to the market that people are not working on?" $RBRK seems to be clearly innovating beyond what most other cybersecurity players are doing: • Agent Cloud & Agentic Rewind – Undo mistakes AI agents made • Annapurna – Secure data lake for GenAI

@KairosPraxis He definitely does. Small-minded comments for sure.

@TickerTango I didn't mind either. Bipul has a colourful personality :) People thought he was on drugs x.com/typesfast/stat…

Really enjoyed this interview with $RBRK CEO @bipulsinha youtube.com/watch?v=0c9yzA…

@KairosPraxis Honestly, I don't really understand why this got so much hate. He seems highly intelligent & I saw it as an interesting philosophical reflection. Gave me Alex Karp vibes.

@TickerTango Not listening unless he drops a few nuggets like this x.com/i/status/20209…

@Couch_Investor 👀

The one portfolio that isn't down today. The cardboard one :) #PokemonDay

$TEM stock dropped today on a weak 2026 EBITDA guide, but reading through the numbers and the conference call, the picture here is actually very bullish and Tempus AI does seem to be successfully separating itself from the SaaSmageddon blast radius with a durable AI business model and moat. The numbers distinctly look good. Oncology revs +29%. MRD +56%. Hereditary +23%. 2026 guide calls for 25% rev growth, consistent with long-term framing from management of ~25% compounded topline growth year after year. Total contract value >$1.1B. Net revenue retention of 126%. EBITDA pushing into consistently positive territory and expected to scale very nicely next year. The numbers are good. The stock is struggling because of continued AI disruption fears - but I don't buy those fears. The value capture of AI in healthcare won't accrue to whoever has the flashiest general-purpose model. It'll accrue to whoever has proprietary multimodal data at scale and distribution into real clinical workflows. Tempus has both. A massive connected dataset flowing from Diagnostics and delivery into routine care via thousands of hospitals/oncologists. So, no, I don't think Tempus AI is going to be disrupted by AI. Instead, I think it'll be a long-term integration winner.

@taobanker You should.

wait a minute shouldn't I own $MELI here?

I fully expect the new $PYPL CEO to do the exact same thing. These companies are massively bloated and badly need to cut a lot of employees.

BREAKING: Deliveroo to cease operations in Singapore after 4th March 2026.

Thoughts on $MELI The past year proved that $MELI’s ecosystem is stronger than ever. Customer satisfaction hit record highs across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. Revenue grew 45% in Q4 and 39% for the full year. Operating income grew 22% even while they invested aggressively. Very impressive they can remain so profitable even while pedal to the metal investing in growth. Ecommerce penetration in Latin America is roughly half of the US, UK, and China. They see no reason that gap cannot close significantly. With 121 million unique active buyers, the network effect keeps strengthening as more buyers attract more sellers. Free shipping continues to drive massive growth. In Brazil, lowering the free shipping threshold to $19 accelerated buyer growth, frequency, and retention. GMV in Brazil grew 35% in Q4, sold items grew 45%, and unique buyers grew 26%. Even now, fewer than one third of Brazilians purchased from $MELI. Mexico and Argentina were also strong, both posting 35%+ GMV growth, with Chile, Colombia, and Peru growing even faster. Logistics is a major competitive advantage. The network handled 41% more volume in 2025, nearly 500m additional shipments. Shipping costs fell 11% in Brazil in Q4, so scale is driving efficiency. This is somewhat hidden in their report and not emphasized “loudly”, but in my humble opinion speaks volumes to their execution. Cross border trade accelerated 74%, and they opened their first fulfillment center in China to support the so called “China LatAm corridor”. Advertising is scaling quickly, up 67% in Q4 ($AMZN who?). AI is being embedded across search, personalization, seller tools, etc. Ads is going to be a monster business for $MELI due to its amazing economics. They are investing heavily across logistics, free shipping, cross border, loyalty, ads, and AI, while still growing revenue near 40%. Momentum is strong and the opportunity remains very large. Fintech is becoming a core pillar. Pago is targeting millions who remain underbanked. Deposits scaled from $2b to nearly $19b in three years. Monthly active users more than doubled to 78m. Credit grew 90% in Q4 to $12.5b and is up more than 4x in 3 years. Spreads remain strong with NIMAL at 23.3%. The credit portfolio is their biggest risk, but also an enormous opportunity. On consolidated financials, revenue grew 45% in Q4 to nearly $8.8b. Operating income was $889m including tax credits. Free cash flow was $763m in Q4. Full year investment was large, with $1.3b in capex and $6.5b deployed into credit. Management estimates a 5–6 point margin impact from strategic initiatives and views this as temporary pressure to expand the moat. The message is clear. They are intentionally compressing margins in the short term to expand scale, engagement, and ecosystem dominance. The opportunity ahead remains enormous, and I personally couldn’t agree more. 🌹

Back in Q2 I questioned whether $TEM could evolve from a diagnostics company into a real AI company. Q4 gave a pretty clear answer, but with an important asterisk. Insights (their data licensing business) grew 69.5% YoY. This is the most scalable, highest-margin part of the business: you build the data once and sell access to it over and over again to pharma and biotech clients. But that 69.5% includes a one-time AstraZeneca warrant impact. Strip that out and underlying growth looks a lot closer to the 25.1% the broader Data & Applications segment reported. That's why Tempus guided 40% Insights growth for Q1. But let's be honest, selling data to pharma is not the same as being an AI company. The real proof will come from the foundation model: Can they turn that data into insights that actually change clinical outcomes? Early signs are there: FDA-cleared AI in cardiology and pathology & early clinical data showing their models outperform traditional diagnostic tools. But there's a lot more to prove.