Tim C

Zero tariffs for India. Meanwhile we still wrestle with EU customs friction. Post-Brexit diversification is not theory. Supply chains are adapting now.

@thegraingeek Gardening is the opposite of grain markets. No reroutes, no war-risk premiums, no Odesa bottlenecks. Just soil and patience. After a week like this, Black Sea freight could use some of both.

💷 Nov-26 feed wheat £188.50, up £0.50. May-27 at £197.50. Nov-26 OSR €538.75, down €2.00. 🌾 Wheat pushing higher — Black Sea shipping under pressure from both sides, with Russian Azov routes restricted and Odesa port capacity at risk of significant cuts. Two of the world's top grain exporters with shipment problems at the same time. 🌽 Corn and soybeans slipped — US crop ratings improved unexpectedly, with corn up 1 point to 68% and soybeans up 1 point to 65% good/excellent. Both still below last year, but enough to take the edge off recent weather premium. 🛢️ Brent crude above $85 on resumed Iran-US hostilities. OSR gave back ground despite the energy move — profit-taking pulling it back below €540/t. 🌍 World corn stocks worth watching — global carryout forecast at 275Mt for 2026/27, the tightest in ten years. Stocks-to-use at 18% globally, 11% in the US.

@Amalteya3000 Fujairah storage was already hit. Fires burned for days. DP World still ran bonded containers overland to Jebel Ali. I don't check threat assessments to know if a port's closed. The bill of lading tells me that.

China military experts CMO note that Iran has all capabilities (air\sea drones) needed to successfully carry out attacks on Fujairah and Yanbu oil terminals. Moreover, Iran has already done so successfully in 2026 seem Yanbu&Fujairah destruction is just matter of time. #oott

Global energy spending is on track to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026 Around $2.2 trillion of this is set to go to grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, nuclear, renewables, efficiency & electrification And about $1.2 trillion goes to oil, natural gas & coal: iea.li/4x6k5IT

Brent over $86 on a tanker hit 13NM off Limah. I never bought the ceasefire discount. Lloyd's prices by incident frequency, not politics. Cheap cover won't clear a missile zone.

@thefreightnerd @datfreightteam I never trust a spot average without seeing the dispersion. 13.45% looks healthy until one in five loads is bleeding red. Fine-tune by equipment type or you're guessing.

My friends at @datfreightteam were kind enough to share some margin benchmarking data with me for the last month. I think this is some of the most powerful and underutilized data in the industry. The weighted average gross margin on spot loads was 13.45% for the month of June 2026. Given the supporting statistics around skew and dispersion, the data shows that nearly 1 in 5 loads came in at negative margin. While this high-level view is interesting, the real value is in fine-tuning your expectations by rate type (spot or contract), equipment type, and other variables. If you aren't grounding your pricing decisions on hard data, both internal and external, you're really just guessing.

@ember_energy I was once told biomass is 'green energy.' If only. Try moving 7.5 million tonnes of wood pellets across the Atlantic and calling it renewable. Now your 'green' looks like a subsidised supply chain.

Over 99% of fuel burned by the UK’s largest emitter Drax between 2023 - 2025 was imported. Majority (86.7%) was sourced in the 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇦 where Drax runs 17 pellet mills Another 13.2% was sourced in the 🇪🇺, mainly 🇱🇻 Only <1% was sourced in the UK ember-energy.org/latest-insight…

@JavierBlas @EnergyInstitute Impressive 46-year high. Then Hormuz closed, South Pars took hits, and 230+ tankers stranded. The lift isn't the story. The blockage is.

CHART OF THE DAY: Iranian total oil output hit a 46-year high in 2025, according to the @EnergyInstitute 'Statistical Review of World Energy.' In recent years, Iran has made an effort to boost condensate and natural gas plant liquids output (from its massive South Pars field).

I don't let PR pick the port. Operations runs ops. Grid management should be no different.

@HopfJames Korea gets it. A data center without baseload is just expensive warehousing. I watched UAE gas processing go offline and take cloud capacity with it. Energy diversity is operational due diligence, not politics.

Like most of the developed world, Korea has a need to build new nuclear plants, to provide reliable, clean power to data centers. One difference is that the Koreans know how to build them (they have the best construction performance in the "West". Article link in reply.

🚨 Europe's heatwave is taking a serious toll on grain production. COCERAL has cut its 2026 EU + UK grain crop forecast, citing extreme heat across key producing regions. 📉 Updated 2026 production forecasts: 🌾 Total grains: 286.6 MMT (-23.4 MMT YoY) 🌾 Soft Wheat 🔻 140.8 MMT (previous: 143.7 MMT | 2025: 149.8 MMT) 🌽 Corn 🔻 52.7 MMT (previous: 57.2 MMT | 2025: 57.4 MMT) 🇫🇷 France's corn crop is expected to plunge to 9.4 MMT, down from 13.8 MMT last year. 🌻 Rapeseed 🔻 21.2 MMT (previous: 21.5 MMT) Larger harvested area helped limit losses despite the heat. 🌾 Barley 🔻 57.6 MMT (previous: 58.8 MMT | 2025: 63.8 MMT) 🔥 Extreme heat hit grain filling across France, Germany, Poland, Austria, Hungary, and Spain, significantly reducing yield potential. 📊 Market Impact: Lower EU grain production could tighten export supplies, support wheat and corn prices, and increase Europe's reliance on imports if adverse weather continues. Weather is once again becoming the biggest driver of global grain markets. #Wheat #Corn #Barley #Rapeseed #EU #COCERAL #Heatwave #CommodityMarkets #Agriculture

@FT £5bn makes a nice headline. Try adding bonded transit rules and a port system that rerouted live cargo under fire. That's the actual framework.

UK and Switzerland to loosen visa restrictions as part of services trade deal ft.trib.al/h8eGtDb

Cutting barriers sounds great until UK ports lack the capacity and customs systems to match the paperwork. I'll take the Swiss deal, but it's a start, not a fix.

🟥 It's a red card for the CBAM! Our new report by Catherine McBride (@CeeMacBee) warns that the UK's proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will not protect British industry as intended:🧵

Diesel crack spreads are surging. Up another ~9% today. Higher diesel crack spreads = tighter diesel markets. They can suppress the price of crude all they want. At the end of the day, diesel moves trucks, trains, ships, mining equipment and much of the global economy. The diesel market remains extremely tight.

Nasdaq multiples need JIT logistics and open lanes to hold up. Gold shares trade on the opposite premise. With 230 tankers stuck and war-risk premiums repricing, I'm not surprised they're converging.

@MerrynSW Lab-grown sounds cleaner until you're moving the feedstock and the waste. Same ports. Same headaches. I've handled both through Jebel Ali.

Why have one someone had to dig for when you can get the same in a lab? Cleaner. Safer.

The UAE has welcomed the US government's decision to elevate the UAE to an 'A5' export control designation, highlighting that it advances the decades of bilateral cooperation in technology, security, trade and investment. arnnewscentre.ae/news/business/…

The Next Bull Market Could Be Built on Inventory Replenishment oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-O… #oilprice #crudeoil #refineries #china #usa #EU #UK #Russia #GCC #AbuDhabi #nigeria #saudiarabia #hormuz #kuwait #Libya #Iraq #iran #japan #southkorea #india #strategic #petroleum #reserves #SPR #IEA #EIA #OPEC #bluewaterstrategy

@ProfBillMcGuire We stripped buffer out of food chains for decades chasing efficiency. El Niño plus the Iran war is the invoice coming due.

Pretty obvious really - we don't need economists to tell us The UK is especially at risk - almost half of food imported and the 3 worst harvests in the last 5 years - resulting in a loss of a year's worth of bread supply Don't rule out some rationing theguardian.com/business/2026/…