Tim(ber) Gokhman

I’ve assembled my 24-post #masstimber campaign into a single thread. Enjoy.

Amazing to see the Pacers players coming back to the hotel after the game with Avli restaurant bags… in which Giannis is an investor/owner. That’s class.

Let’s goooo @timberpartners #whatsnext #masstimber #doepicshit

@aussieflya I think you are correct.

@TimGokhman This is probably the most misunderstood part of development... How deals are capitalized and what makes most projects a go or no go...

A comment on an article about workforce housing. Those “crooks” are often pension funds - teachers, firefighters, public employees, etc - they represent 30 to 40% of all institutional real estate equity. So, to fix housing, email these people and tell them to live on less.

#comment-1659878" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">urbanmilwaukee.com/2025/04/15/thr…

Roughly 30% of my husband duties are telling my wife when the cooktop is too hot, and when her coffee is getting cold.

Your theories work well - in 2018. They don’t work today. Have you ever done ground up development? Madison, with median incomes 20% higher than MKE, has 42% of its population rent burdened. Rents are up 30% in 2.5 years. Whereas small govt Texas signs 99 year leases abating taxes to build affordable housing. Please. Stop.

You describe TIF as a binary calculation. It’s much more of a philosophical spectrum of how involved in housing construction a municipality should be as a whole. This is no different than education, transportation, etc. Culturally, I believe less government involvement in life is better. That sentiment is contrary to the mindset in MKE. And for standard development projects, I just don’t see TIF as a priority for the city to take on. That might mean building comes at a slower pace and certain types of ROI institutional guys can’t make the numbers work in the near term. But if the decision making and work across the city is solid, the prospects for the city will improve and private housing investment will follow. Is growth slow in Milwaukee slow because city leaders haven’t embraced TIF development for workforce housing or is it because the housing Authority, MPS, the HOP and the City Attorney under Spencer were train wrecks in management? I would be much more interested in slimming down housing code friction on renovation of existing buildings. That in my mind aligns with the opportunities currently in the market and reduces govt involvement as a side benefit.

Up until 11 pm, drafting talking points for an upcoming Milwaukee-Madison thought leadership trip with @Ian_Mke It’s been nearly 2 years of advocacy for a comprehensive workforce housing program in Milwaukee. Still no result. This is a big reason why housing is unaffordable.

Worth a few minutes for those who have questioned the @realDonaldTrump administration’s recent deportation of Mahmoud Khalil.

Again - you are simply incorrect. You are not “tethering” taxes - they don’t exist without the development. So you’re comparing apples and phantoms. The fact that you believe - with no math whatsoever- that if there’s a demand it’ll “somehow” get built makes you part of the problem. I really am sorry to make it seem personal - it isn’t - but you write your opinions as fact, and they are empirically incorrect.

TIFs are a choice to tether taxes, and that tether has a great magnetic effect to restricting tax dollars to a particular area of govt (housing) and a particular geo within the municipality. For a game changing development like the one in PW, sure form a TIF. For distressed areas where no private dollars will go, sure. But that is not what’s going on in the industry…developers are using them on everyday projects binding munis against one another. If housing is in demand, private and speculative dollars will follow. That’s the nature of greed. Your assertion is that housing is the bottleneck to growth in MKE. I simply disagree with that theory. And as I suggested, even if you are right and it is the case, moving the needle on poverty via salaries - earned income is a lot more efficient way to make housing more affordable.

@BoldCoastCap @Ian_Mke Also. Please provide your detailed plan for increasing incomes without inflation pushing up the cost of housing.

You continue to bang the drum on subsidies for RE development, derisking your/others speculative activity. Why should the public underwrite your financing? RE is a speculative activity. Change your timeframe, change the composition/type of investors, increase your geo concentration on high conviction bets, grow slower organically. A person’s capacity to earn an income is the most sensitive/leveraging factor that can propel ability to pay for whatever available housing exists, will be produced.

@BoldCoastCap @Ian_Mke Ross, you’re killing me. I can’t reduce poverty - i’m pretty sure you know that. I have designed a no-cost solution for the city to increase workforce housing. Nothing gets done if we don’t focus on the low hanging fruit.

Two vectors of unafforability. Supply of housing - Percent poverty. Focus on reducing the second vector. Reduction in poverty has a direct effect, also a derivative effect in attracting more private capital for housing construction. Reduces need for subsidy by govt. indexmundi.com/facts/united-s…

It's the EXACT same thing with rental housing. Good ideas and intentions litter the road to hell. It usually costs considerably more to build an affordable unit than a market rate unit, wasting taxpayer dollars and reducing the # of affordable units built due to regulation.

@BoldCoastCap That’s a good one.

@TimGokhman What geos are the opportunities in the next cycle?

OK #retwit - let's deliver some substance. I'll soon be moderating a panel at a multifamily symposium with a CEO of a major CRE sales/financing firm, head of equity for a large CRE investment bank, and a VP of a national developer. The panel will focus on what the next multifamily real estate cycle could look like. From 2011-2020, we had low interest rates and a ton of production. The last 5 years have been broken by COVID, construction costs and interest rates. Homeowners with low-interest-rate loans are frozen in place. And now, the tariffs. There are certainly investment opportunities in buying existing product, and sometimes updating those buildings to charge higher rents, but at some point, the market will want new. How could that work? What happens to affordability? What questions would you want answered? I’ll update afterwards with main takeaways.

@BoldCoastCap Floor plate (depth, core efficiency, window lines) and basis (cost of the shell - has to basically be land cost). Office is usually overparked compared to resi so that’s rarely an issue. Historic tax credits help. Otherwise likely requires TIF. And sometimes both.

@TimGokhman What are the most important factors in office to multifamily conversions?

I guess lots of people are gonna be watching Margin Call this weekend…

@Michael4MKE Deep 😆

Uncle Rico?

@MarqHamburgler Quite to the contrary, you’re very sober in your assessment. My post is facetious. As for the rendering, that’s compliments of chatgpt.

Imagine! A 1,000’ tall mass timber building. It’s easy. You don’t need any development expertise. I just created this using AI in a few minutes. Anyone can. Next, the pro forma. Raise $300m because crypto blockchain is the future. Investor returns 🚀 🚀 🚀 .