Tim

This week remains relatively light in terms of macroeconomic events, however, the key releases will provide insight into the state of consumer demand and the labor market in the U.S. Following the recent acceleration in inflation, the market will be testing whether consumer strength persists and how resilient the labor market remains under tight monetary policy conditions. Against this backdrop, geopolitics continues to act as a separate driver of sentiment. Tensions around Iran remain elevated: the U.S. blockade complicates diplomatic efforts and effectively prevents the formation of a clear framework for potential negotiations. The situation surrounding the previously announced talks, mentioned by Trump, further highlighted this imbalance — Iran did not confirm participation nor form a delegation, as no official agreement had been reached. The lack of response was interpreted by the market as a refusal, although in reality it reflects the absence of a coordinated decision. 📅 Tuesday Retail Sales MoM (March), 14:30 Previous: 0.6% Forecast: 1.1% 📅 Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (April 18), 14:30 Previous: 207K Forecast: 218K Over the weekend, the geopolitical factor once again moved to the forefront. Iran attacked the VLCC supertanker Sanmar Herald along with another tanker sailing under the Indian flag, both en route from Iraq. The market reaction was immediate: oil surged sharply at the open by around +9%, while futures on the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 turned negative by about -0.80%. In this context, the crypto market also came under pressure, as it remains highly correlated with overall risk sentiment. At the same time, from a technical standpoint, the market has already reacted to the initial zones of interest we previously discussed, making further price action dependent not only on news flow but also on whether price can establish itself above or below key levels. #Macro #Economy #Markets #Trading #Investing #Geopolitics #Oil #Crypto #SP500 #Nasdaq #Inflation #Fed #RiskOn #RiskOff

🌎 This week, market focus is shifting toward the inflation block via PPI, which will help assess price pressures at the producer level and how they may feed through into consumer inflation. After last week, the market already received confirmation of accelerating inflation: CPI (y/y) came in at 3.3% versus 2.4% previously, fully matching expectations. In fact, this was the base-case scenario for market participants, as the likelihood of declining inflation was barely considered. 💵 Against this backdrop, the latest PPI data becomes key to understanding whether the inflationary impulse is persisting deeper within the economy. Additionally, jobless claims will indicate whether the labor market remains resilient enough to sustain the current level of price pressure. 📅 Tuesday PPI MoM (March), 14:30 Previous: 0.7% Forecast: 1.3% Core PPI MoM (March) Previous: 0.5% Forecast: 0.4% 📅 Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (April 11), 14:30 Previous: 219K Forecast: 216K #inflation #PPI #CPI #economy #macroeconomics #markets #trading #stocks #forex #investing #economicdata #centralbank #interestrates #financialmarkets #marketupdate

🌎 This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar will focus on inflation data, consumer activity, and signals from the Federal Reserve, all of which will shape expectations for the future path of monetary policy. Key events include the release of FOMC Minutes, PCE and CPI inflation data, as well as statistics on household income and spending. 📅 Monday ISM Services PMI (March), 16:00 Previous: 56.1 Forecast: 54 📅 Tuesday Durable Goods Orders MoM (February), 14:30 Previous: 0% Forecast: -0.3% 📅 Wednesday FOMC Minutes, 20:00 Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting may provide more insight into the regulator’s stance on inflation risks. At its March meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range, in line with market expectations. The release comes ahead of Friday’s inflation data and may offer additional signals on how concerned the Fed is about inflation dynamics. 📅 Thursday Core PCE Price Index MoM (February), 14:30 Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.2% GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) Previous: 4.4% Forecast: 0.7% Personal Income MoM (February) Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.4% Personal Spending MoM (February) Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.6% 📅 Friday Core Inflation Rate MoM (March), 14:30 Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.2% Core Inflation Rate YoY (March) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.6% Inflation Rate MoM (March) Previous: 0.3% Forecast: 0.8% Inflation Rate YoY (March) Previous: 2.4% Forecast: 3.1% #economy #inflation #Fed #FOMC #macroeconomics #trading #investing #stocks #forex #finance #economiccalendar #markets #CPI #PCE

Current data points to a gradual cooling of the U.S. labor market. The unemployment rate has risen from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting reduced tightness in employment conditions after a prolonged period of strong labor demand. At the same time, Non-Farm Payrolls dynamics have become more volatile: after strong readings at the beginning of the year, the indicator has moved into negative territory, signaling a slowdown in job creation. Overall, this supports a narrative of gradual normalization in the labor market without a sharp deterioration in economic conditions. This week, markets expect a partial recovery in employment data. The consensus forecast suggests Non-Farm Payrolls may rise to around 50K, potentially confirming a stabilization scenario following the previous weak reading. The unemployment rate is expected to remain near 4.5%, consistent with a gradual cooling trend. At the same time, JOLTS Job Openings are projected at approximately 6.7 million, indicating continued softening in labor demand. In the manufacturing sector, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast around 52, signaling moderate expansion in economic activity. Meanwhile, Retail Sales are expected to return to positive territory after the previous decline, serving as a key test of consumer demand resilience. 📅 Tuesday JOLTS Job Openings Previous: 6.946M Forecast: 6.7M 📅 Wednesday Retail Sales MoM Previous: -0.2% Forecast: 0.3% ISM Manufacturing PMI Previous: 52.4 Forecast: 52 📅 Friday Non-Farm Payrolls Previous: -92K Forecast: 50K Unemployment Rate Previous: 4.4% Forecast: 4.50% #USJobs #NFP #Economy #Macro #FederalReserve #Inflation #LaborMarket #ISM #RetailSales #JOLTS #Trading #Investing

$ETH After returning to the mid-term Value Area (2145$ – 1925$), price has repeatedly faced rejection from VAH (2145$) — clearly confirming seller presence in this zone. From the current positioning, the base expectation remains a retest of the unchanged target — Monthly Open + POC. According to Daily Delta Futures data, there is significant buy-side accumulation, but so far this increase has not resulted in an impulsive breakout above nearby FTA zones. Given this, the primary scenario is a price rotation into the supply zone (2262.6$ – 2307$), where short positions can be considered for continuation of the internal rotation within the Value Area. 📈 On the downside, the key level is Single Print (2101.5$), which aligns with an open fractal and may act as a trigger for a corrective move upward toward 2262.6$. If price moves above current levels, I will be watching for a short setup formation, followed by a rotation to the downside, with the nearest target at NPOC (1978$). Long scenarios from the POC area should only be considered in case of strong rejection, confirmed by high volume activity and liquidity imbalance shifting to the Bid side. #ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #Futures #TechnicalAnalysis #Altcoins #CryptoMarkets #DeFi #Bitcoin #Investing #TradingView

Last week was driven by rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. For the global economy, this represents a supply shock, increasing production costs and slowing the pace of disinflation. This factor has forced markets to revise expectations for the interest rate trajectory. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range, in line with expectations. At the same time, the regulator updated its macroeconomic outlook: 2026 GDP growth was revised up to 2.4%, while the PCE inflation forecast increased to 2.7%. This combination signals a more resilient economy with slower progress on inflation decline. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that some committee members have shifted toward expecting fewer rate cuts, and without clear progress on inflation, policy easing will not occur. For markets, this implies prolonged tight financial conditions. The US dollar remains supported by delayed rate-cut expectations, while risk assets stay sensitive to inflation data and energy market dynamics. For the crypto market, liquidity remains the key factor: the delay in monetary easing limits capital inflows, but strong economic growth supports medium-term demand for risk assets. This week, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet, with no major inflation or monetary policy releases. Market focus will shift to the US labor market. The ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims data will help assess current employment trends following strong previous reports. In the absence of major macro releases, markets are likely to be more reactive to geopolitical developments and energy market movements. 📆 Tuesday ADP Employment Change — 14:15 Previous: 9K Forecast: — 📆 Thursday Initial Jobless Claims — 14:30 Previous: 205K Forecast: 209K #Macro #Economy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Markets #Crypto #Bitcoin #Finance #Trading #Investing #Energy #Geopolitics #USD #Liquidity

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This week, market attention will be primarily focused on the release of U.S. inflation data. The spotlight will be on the CPI figures, scheduled for mid-week, which could significantly influence market expectations regarding the future path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. By the end of the week, the focus will shift toward consumer activity data, labor market conditions, and the Core PCE inflation indicator, which the Fed traditionally considers one of its key benchmarks. At the same time, the geopolitical backdrop remains tense. The escalation of the Middle East conflict continues, with hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran entering a new phase. According to media reports, oil storage facilities near Tehran were struck on Sunday. Iranian officials described the attack as a “dangerous new stage” of the conflict, while Israel stated that the facilities were being used to support military operations. 📅 Tuesday Existing Home Sales (Feb), 16:00 Previous: 3.91M Forecast: 3.88M 📅 Wednesday Core Inflation Rate MoM (Feb), 14:30 Previous: 0.3% Forecast: 0.2% Core Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.5% Inflation Rate MoM (Feb) Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.3% Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) Previous: 2.4% Forecast: 2.4% 📅 Thursday Initial Jobless Claims, 14:30 Previous: 213K Forecast: 217K 📅 Friday Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jan), 14:30 Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.3% GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd Est., Q4) Previous: 4.4% Forecast: 1.4% Personal Income MoM (Jan) Previous: 0.3% Forecast: 0.2% JOLTs Job Openings (Jan), 16:00 Previous: 6.542M Forecast: 6.5M #CPI #Inflation #FOMC #FederalReserve #Macro #Economy #USData #Markets #Trading #Investing #Forex #StockMarket #Crypto #SP500 #Bitcoin #Finance #EconomicCalendar

$BTC update A rotation from the [1D OB] has been completed, after which price continues to trade in the lower range relative to previous balances. On the weekly profile, we see acceptance below the 2-week composite, which indicates that the market auction is accepting lower prices and forming a new value area below the prior range. On the D1 profile, the first POI zone has formed at $64,325–$64,720 (SP). Price reacted there with a temporary halt in momentum, signaling local demand presence. As long as this zone holds, a corrective scenario remains valid. Locally, an additional long position can be considered, targeting the $66,770.5 SP sweep, keeping in mind that the move will most likely remain rotational within the newly accepted lower value range. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #BitcoinAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketProfile #OrderFlow #CryptoMarket

$BTC Contextually, price has broken out of the February local and monthly balance and is now trading at a discount relative to the previous value range. The key support level is [1M RB], from which a local reaction is possible, with expansion toward the nearest FTA — [1D FVG] at $65,000. The base scenario anticipates a test of $62,000, followed by range consolidation. It is from that area where it becomes reasonable to consider a corrective move of the current downside leg, targeting 65–66k. 📖 Orderbook Depth: The entire sideways range is accompanied by accumulation from a large player in the deeper percentage zones of the book. Any deviation from the current balance could trigger a sharp impulse move due to the execution of accumulated orders. Such a deviation would imply a continuation of the correction toward the 59k area, where price may experience mean reversion. At the same time, in the near-depth zones, early signs of buyer demand have appeared for the first time in the past two weeks. Long Scenario A setup for long positions предполагает deeper penetration below [1M RB], a test of the key level at $62,000, and a clear buyer reaction signaling seller exhaustion. Local targets: formed [1D FVG] and [1D OB]. Short Scenario Decisions on continuing short positions will be made contextually upon approach to the specified price zones. Opening new positions within the current discount array is not advisable; continuation requires waiting for a corrective pullback. View chart (1H) tradingview.com/x/LprrQX7a/ 👈 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #Orderflow #SmartMoney #TradingView #CryptoMarket

🌎 This week, the macroeconomic calendar sets a crucial tone for the markets. The data covers three key areas at once: • Business investment activity • Inflationary pressure • The Federal Reserve’s stance on further monetary policy moves Wednesday will show whether momentum in the manufacturing sector is holding up — and how ready the Fed is to take the next step after its rate pause. Friday could be decisive: Core PCE inflation and the updated GDP estimate will help assess the balance between economic slowdown and resilient demand. 📅 Wednesday Durable Goods Orders MoM — 15:30 Previous: 5.3% Forecast: -3.4% FOMC Minutes — 21:00 The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes will shed light on the economic outlook and internal discussions regarding potential rate cuts. At the same time, policymakers have emphasized that economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace, unemployment shows signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Fed Chair Powell noted that the current rate level is appropriate to achieve the Fed’s objectives. 📅 Friday Core PCE Price Index MoM — 15:30 Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.4% GDP QoQ (Advance Estimate) Previous: 4.4% Forecast: 3.5% A slowdown from elevated levels would signal a transition into a late-cycle phase without implying a recession signal. Personal Income MoM Previous: 0.3% Forecast: 0.1% Personal Spending MoM — 15:30 Previous: 0.5% Forecast: 0.4% #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #FOMC #Inflation #PCE #GDP #Markets #Investing #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicOutlook

$BTC After seller rejection on the local VA retest at $68,450–70,550 and the sweep of short-term ask liquidity at $71,500, a reversal formation has emerged. At the moment, price is rotating toward the nearest opposing liquidity — the monthly VAL. Order book limit clusters highlight the presence of a dominant passive buyer both at local and deeper levels, creating immediate buy pressure. Predictive futures liquidations are currently balanced on both sides, with a slight skew toward short liquidations, a significant cluster of which sits in the $71,800–73,300 range. However, liquidity remains insufficient for a full-scale reversal from current levels. Therefore, I expect further downside toward the 1M HVN at $64,800–62,700. 📉 A breakdown of the historical absorption zone $64,800–62,700 without signs of effective demand would activate the scenario of revisiting $60,000. Plan A: From current levels, look for a long setup after price trades through the 1H FVG, takes the fractal, and continues corrective movement into HVN. Plan B: Wait for a move into HVN and watch for structural formation with clear volume confirmation. If volume support is absent, expect rotation toward $60,000. View chart (1H) tradingview.com/x/aN4GhciR/ 👈 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #OrderFlow #VolumeProfile #Liquidity #Futures #PriceAction

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📊 Market Context (HTF) $BTC Price has moved below the VAL of the 10-week composite and is now trading in a discount zone relative to mid-term value. This suggests a shift into an attractive pricing area, though buyer initiative remains unconfirmed. The nearest technically significant resistance is the NPOC at $89,900, which currently caps any impulsive recovery attempts. 💰 Order Flow & Liquidity The order book shows a bid-side bias, but without abnormal imbalance. As price returns into the composite area, order density decreases — creating conditions for a rapid overheating toward asks. Despite trading in discount, participants continue to add short positions, which appear weak and are gradually being absorbed. This builds prerequisites for a short liquidation sweep, with the nearest cluster around $89,725. 📈 Spot Market Behavior On spot, increased buyer activity and sell-side absorption at local lows are observed, signaling interest in further upside. At the same time, nearby pushing volumes keep price locked in a local range, from which both a sweep of the lows or a breakout higher toward key levels remain possible. ⚙️ Scenarios & Risk Assessment At this stage, a definitive conclusion is difficult. While price trades within discount arrays and looks mid-term attractive, the absence of abnormal bid inflows does not yet confirm a clear initiative shift. In this context, a more logical scenario is another dip into the $85,000–$84,000 zone to form anomalies and attract additional demand. 🎯 Technical Takeaways & Strategy A 4H FVG invalidation is present, indicating expansion at the lows and confirming underlying demand. If price re-enters the FVG, a shift toward abnormal bid inflows may occur, creating conditions to consider long positions. For now, the optimal approach is monitoring the current zone or waiting for a deeper move into the POI around $85,784. Opening shorts within discount ranges currently carries elevated risk — patience and confirmation remain key. 👉View chart (1H) tradingview.com/x/BP6wweFw/ #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #MarketProfile #OrderFlow #Liquidity #SmartMoney #PriceAction #ICT #CryptoMarket

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After the New Year holidays and U.S. federal breaks, American markets return to full operation. The week ahead is set to be packed with macroeconomic data that will shape expectations around economic momentum and the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Beyond macro, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Over the weekend, the U.S. conducted a large-scale operation against Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela. Trump is also signaling a tougher stance toward Mexico, so geopolitics should not be ignored this week. 📅 Monday, January 5 — 17:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (December) Previous: 48.2 Expected: ~48 The index remains below 50, signaling weakness in the manufacturing sector. Any upside surprise could support the U.S. dollar and pressure risk assets, while a weaker print would reinforce a risk-on environment. 📅 Wednesday, January 7 — 17:00 ISM Services PMI (December) Previous: 52.6 Expected: ~52 The services sector remains the backbone of the U.S. economy. Staying above 50 supports the soft-landing scenario without a recession. JOLTS Job Openings (November) — 17:00 Previous: 7.67M Expected: ~7.7M These data will show whether the gradual cooling of the labor market continues. A decline in job openings would support the case for a more dovish Fed. 📅 Friday, January 9 — 15:30 Non-Farm Payrolls (December) Previous: 64K Expected: ~45–57K Unemployment Rate (December) — 15:30 Previous: 4.6% Expected: 4.6% The key event of the week. Slower job growth combined with a stable or slightly higher unemployment rate would confirm a controlled cooling of the labor market — positive for BTC and other risk assets. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary, January) — 17:00 Previous: 52.9 Expected: ~52.7 This indicator reflects consumer confidence. Weak sentiment supports the slowdown narrative, but without signaling acute economic stress. For BTC and the crypto market, the overall backdrop is neutral-to-positive: inflation is under control, and the labor market is cooling gradually. Volatility is possible around the NFP release, but for now macro does not look like a major headwind. The main risks remain geopolitical. #markets #macroeconomics #Fed #FOMC #NFP #jobsreport #USD #riskon #stocks #crypto #BTC #Bitcoin #ISM #JOLTS #geopolitics

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