CauserEffect
5K posts


@atrupar @LindaB65387924 Yeah, and they’ve been “coming for your guns” for half a century.
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Can someone please tell me how Gamestop has 56 billion dollars?
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
JUST IN - GameStop offers to buy eBay for $56 billion — WSJ
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CauserEffect retweetledi

@dr_gorchani @NewInChess they're probably close in eval. i like Rab8 more, Rfb8 doesn't look right at a glance, but not necessarily wrong. :)
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@TimeSnips @NewInChess I guess, R(f)b8 is better, leading to the only option Qd7 for Black.
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Today's puzzle is from the 4NCL, which is finishing today. After having been worse for a long time, White has a chance to win the game:
Jones – Parker, 4NCL, England 2026.
Gawain Jones sets up a devastating double attack. Can you find the first move?
Come back to see the solution tomorrow.
See what's new at: newinchess.com/what-s-new
#chess #chesspuzzle #tactics

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It’s been almost six weeks since Jensen Huang claimed we had achieved AGI.
Why don’t I feel any different?
forbes.com/sites/antoniop…
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@dr_gorchani @NewInChess yep, that's the one that ruins it. looks covered but the Q is really the spoiler. so, that's the focus and the solution, Rab8.
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@gnoble79 until this ipo, the systemic risk of musk's empire was not of much concern, index/ETF/etc. (passive funds).
"early/private holders monetize, *passive funds are forced buyers*, and retail absorbs narrative risk at a valuation that may already price decades of flawless execution."
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@gnoble79 "This IPO is less like “buying SpaceX” and more like buying a non-controlling economic derivative on Musk’s empire, with passive funds and retail serving as the liquidity substrate."
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CauserEffect retweetledi

Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets.
Not because the cars are bad.
But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT.
I've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability.
Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference.
The car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong.
Probabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside.
NHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving.
In Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles.
The average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes.
Waymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin.
But here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed:
The facts do not matter to the people who own this stock.
Every missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger.
Call them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers.
It's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning.
Every time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down.
When your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely.
That's literally a religion with a ticker symbol.
I highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this.
And now it even gets WORSE...
CapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading.
Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision:
In the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded.
No million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA.
NONE of it.
So if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back.
The milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing.
This is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it.
I've seen every bust of the last four decades.
But this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous.
But the math always wins. ALWAYS.
It just takes longer when the con is this good.
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I thought taking two graduate physics classes while working would be impossible and granted there were times it fucking sucked a lot, it forced me to re-learn how to prioritize - and also how to sit down as grind out study time. I had to skip class for meetings sometimes, had to skip meetings for class, so it’s not an exercise in perfection, but in compromise and “good enough”.
Highly recommend signing onto do hard shit you don’t think you can do. A win doesn’t look like perfection, it looks like survival.
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@WhiskeyJimbo @HistoryBoomer i've been searching for the perfect gif. this is it :)
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@AstroMikeMerri @FrankBr05713205 that is awesome. didn't know it existed. now i want. :)
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Amazing that so many people on this app can't solve it. Took me 2 seconds..
Chess Master@xxChessMaster
Mate in 1! Am I missing something? 🤔
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