Timo Riske

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Timo Riske

Timo Riske

@Timo_NFL

Mathematician, Data science @PFF. A simple mind thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.

Germany Katılım Ocak 2017
115 Takip Edilen34.1K Takipçiler
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time. Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is: pff.com/news/draft-202…
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
these days your season won't be made or broken by playing a bunch of teams off bye weeks... Chargers fans can relax...until their season will be broken by injuries, so there's that
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
my galaxy brain take why rest differential doesn't matter all that much anymore is because 20 years ago players used bye weeks to - you know - rest and now players use bye weeks to go on some shady twitch streams and cause distractions,,
Lindsay Rhodes@lindsay_rhodes

Rest differentials this disparate HAVE to have meaning for the teams, right? 15 extra days of rest for the Bears? That HAS to be an advantage. 24 LESS rest days for the Chargers? Must be a disadvantage. Problem: history suggests none of these statements are true.

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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
@kolbster2121 my point is they're doing the same stuff every year. some video game setting and easter eggs. Even the tweet always looks the same.
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Kolbey
Kolbey@kolbster2121·
@Timo_NFL Calling that video washed just shows how dominant the Chargers social media team is. People get bored with greatness.
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Davey
Davey@DaveyDaveyGravy·
@Timo_NFL Grass grows in the summer. The NFL is primarily in the fall and winter, grass doesn’t grow.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
Market consensus win totals since March. Teams that have been trending down since the March opening: Bucs, Packers Teams that haves been trending up since the March opening: Panthers, Cowboys
Timo Riske tweet media
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
@AndrewHallFF i will think of disincentivizing the algorithm to put it right at a swing point.
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Andrew Hall
Andrew Hall@AndrewHallFF·
@Timo_NFL Gotcha, love the data, just thought I'd try to provide a little feedback. Thanks for creating and sharing!
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Andrew Hall
Andrew Hall@AndrewHallFF·
@Timo_NFL That Bengals line is hard to read due to where you placed the logo, fwiw
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
Here is current team strength and strength of schedule derived from current consensus market win totals & prices. The win total is adjusted for - price of over/under - 9th home/road game - strength of schedule (iteratively on itself) and then translated to point spread.
Timo Riske tweet media
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL

Market consensus win totals since March. Teams that have been trending down since the March opening: Bucs, Packers Teams that haves been trending up since the March opening: Panthers, Cowboys

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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
@raggamont tbh I'm not too concerned with what the German team does. Also if Norway gets far, that would be cool.
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Rodrigo Gomez
Rodrigo Gomez@raggamont·
@Timo_NFL Yes! If it goes according to plan they’ll face in the semi… I have Germany second in their group behind Ecuador and losing to Norway in the next round… sorry 🫢
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
@raggamont tbf I haven't even checked the playoff tree for that, i.e. whether it's likely that Spain and France meet earlier than the final (it was just gut feeling😅)
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Rodrigo Gomez
Rodrigo Gomez@raggamont·
@Timo_NFL Too bad, they could use your brain (I ran a MonteCarlo and have Spain-Argentina in the final
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
@raggamont No, i'm not into soccer analytics. (Spain or France win)
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Rodrigo Gomez
Rodrigo Gomez@raggamont·
@Timo_NFL Hey man! Are you doing any predictive work for the World Cup?
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL·
@LeeSharpeNFL it tries to put all logos on the very right, but when the overlap is too crazy, it goes for the x-value where there is most space. If no significant improvement is made, it defaults to very right.
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