Timo Riske

Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time. Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is: pff.com/news/draft-202…

@mar_wid_ Thanks man!

@Timo_NFL Happy Birthday, I hope you're doing well.

Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time. Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is: pff.com/news/draft-202…

@LawrenceApril18 It will continue to exist (and be improved soon)

@PFF_Moo Timo what’s going to happen to PFF premium stats for consumers?

@JoshNorris Browns might be getting ready to trade him, but it's completely unrelated to the proposal. When 26-year old Micah Parsons got traded within today's framework, so can 30.5 year old Myles Garett

this makes Myles Garrett's contract actually tradeable and the Browns proposed a rule change that would allow draft picks to be exchanged up to five years into the future coincidence?

@tejfbanalytics would be a sick gauntlet

@PFF_Moo don’t know when that game is but it could be that weekend as well!

so we have: •wednesday sept. 9: seahawks game •thursday sept. 10: 49ers-rams saturday sept. 12: ohio st-texas, oklahoma-michigan, arkansas-utah etc •sunday sept. 13: full NFL sunday •monday sept. 14: MNF

oh wow, kickoff on Wednesday

wait is this the kickoff game?

also just to be clear, I agree with the second part of the tweet. The claim that this leads to analysts becoming worse when doing podcasts over writing is hard to prove or falsify, so it's really whatever.

fwiw doesn't mean that podcasts are inherently bad, of course. There are plenty of good out there and it's just the easiest medium to get one's thoughts out there these days, so there is not reason not to use it for people who enjoy it.

One of the reasons I kind of hated going on podcasts tbh. I would always rehearsal all my thoughts like 10 times and then still didn't have the time to get all of them across and ended up on some stupid buzzwords instead, lol. I know there is the arugment that it gives you better opportunities to talk to someone and exchange ideas, but a podcast can also never replace an actual 1-to-1 conversation, where a way more unscripted back and forth allows to you gather your thoughts iteratively instead of being forced into a time limit etc. The best way of gathering and spreading ideas is private unscripted talks and then a write up of what you gathered and thought about in these talks. Kind of killed in most modern media, of course.

@Brexitonian fwiw Sam and Steve are way better at podcasting than I could ever be, lol

@Brexitonian Thanks for the kind words. It's just not something I enjoyed all that much and I don't think too many people enjoyed listening to me as well (based on that I didn't get all that many invites, lol)

@benj_robinson it lets you reach a larger audience

@PFF_Moo I think it's a matter of doing both, tbh. Put out the writing but also do short and long form speaking! I find that being able to translate my written words in those audiences makes me a better communicator overall.

Somewhat related this is also why I think that TV debates before election are not only stupid, but also dangerous for democracy. Would be so much better to make politicians write down their ideas and proposed solutions. Obviously not possible anymore in the world we live in.

The Romans were so ahead of their time, when they founded Cologne, they exactly knew where the Prussians would found Berlin 1000 years later. Think about that.

@talkng_tomyself their best argument would have been that it's hard to referee and this argument even got stronger throughout last season, there was some public outcry about that. The fact that they still don't even try again tells us that it was always about the Eagles having won with it.

@PFF_Moo it was always stupid to act like there was some great necessity to ban a modified qb sneak imo

This somewhat makes me think that teams were just salty that the Eagles won the SB last year.

they could've at least started a formal attempt at a ban again this year, just to keep up the decoy

@WesEss01 @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 according to Orlovsky and Tannenbaum, 10-12 teams want to trade up to #6 for Ty Simpson,,,

@PFF_Moo @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 This draft may be telling. CLE at 6 is one to watch. Berry has traditionally gotten good value in moves down but to get a deal done this year (especially if for a non premium position) they may need to take less, given the lack of star talent at the top.

The nerds have lost the battle for draft capital trade valuation. Teams really are not moving any closer to the outcome-based style of trade charts that analytics/cap experts have published in the last few years, and I’m not sure there has been enough introspection as to why

@reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 Also I wouldn't necessarily include the time value of picks in that conversation, i.e. future picks. That's a whole other can of worms I'm not willing to open here. The incentives to be considered for that make any kind of behavorial explanation even more speculative.

@reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 wait, what do you mean by "sitting on a known edge"? I just explained why sitting on it means exploiting it. also well yeah, there is also the likely explanation that they are just not thinking all that much at all. I just wanted to give some alternative explanation, lol.