Thomas J. Weinandy

My new paper came out in the Journal of Marketing Analytics! Check out the summary here or click through for the full article @tomweinandy/using-twitter-to-predict-retail-foot-traffic-e024852651b2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@tomweinandy/u… #EconTwitter #Marketing #Twitter #Retail

Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it. Read the full story from Scripps: scrippsnews.com/politics/econo…

A few days after the Iran war began, a gas station cashier told me while I was buying coffee: “You should get gas too — everyone nearby raised prices by 30 cents and we haven’t yet.” Oil shocks hit fast, but stations usually change prices only once a day.

I'm honored to have been featured in a LinkedIn News roundup debunking the claim that gas stations are benefiting from surging gas prices. (Spoiler: they hate it as much as drivers.) linkedin.com/news/story/gas…

Once again, a reminder that US gasoline retailers are NOT beneficiaries of the war. Nationwide retail price has moved to $3.912/gal but the gross margin has compressed from over 40cts/gal to about 32cts/gal. Retailers benefit in down markets, not up markets.

Higher gas prices are painful, but that does not automatically mean stations are gouging. Right now, the better explanation is higher crude and wholesale costs from the Iran-related supply shock, not fatter retail margins.

Yes, I would hold at that price

The Jones Act waiver may help marine-dependent fuel markets like Florida and Puerto Rico, but it’s too narrow to meaningfully lower gas prices nationwide. Good for logistics at the margin, not a game changer at your local pump.

Is fuel heading for a repeat of 2022? I’m cautiously optimistic not. In 2022, ~14% of global oil (Russia) was disrupted by sanctions. Today, ~20% flows through Hormuz, but this shock may be shorter & prices started ~$20/bbl lower. Big risk remains—but markets expect resolution.

Getting lots of questions on how the Middle East conflict is impacting U.S. gas prices. 1st of n videos: Why not just produce more oil? ~20% of global supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—and it’s effectively closed. That ties OPEC’s hands. The U.S.? Not that simple.

The spike in US #gasprices has been extremely close to the 2022 Russia/Ukraine spike. Through 12 days, the national average in 2022 rose ~75c/gal, while this time in 2026, prices are up an average ~70c/gal over the same time frame.

I surveyed 1,700+ consumers and 79% changed their shopping behavior in some way because of tariffs. The recent SCOTUS ruling won't change that anytime soon. supermarketnews.com/grocery-trends…

What will it take for gas prices to fall? Most ideas floating around right now are band-aids. The only sustainable solution is reopening tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Even then, retail gas prices will take time to adjust. texastribune.org/2026/03/11/tex…

Tariffs might change, but shoppers won’t. Retailers need to make the bargains easier to find ow.ly/vxoP106vGy4

For all the attention on regular gas prices right now, diesel is not getting the attention it deserves. Distillate sales were in decline before the Strait of Hormuz blockade, adding even more headwinds to the commercial transportation sector. upside.com/business/retai…

@greg_ip The strongest signal is 3 days, but it's shorter when wholesale gas future are rising (1d) & longer when falling (4d). It's the "up like a rocket, down like a feather" effect common in retail fuel industry. DM if you want more details & I'd be happy to chat.

Hey energy experts, what's the lag, in days, from a change in wholesale gasoline futures to retail (AAA average) prices? And what's a good rule of thumb on the spread/mutiple between the two? (Answer in DM's if you prefer.)

Consumers love loyalty-program value—so much that they join and use multiple programs in every category. It’s not just grocery: today’s uncommitted shopper is a store-hopper, spreading loyalty across many retailers. money.usnews.com/money/personal…

Kudos to the @The_Budget_Lab for breaking down where we stand following today's partial repeal of tariffs. It's clear, concise & current budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state…

Were you among the 230 million Americans affected by Winter Storm Fern? My latest blog shows which states saw a 24% decline in #fuel during the cold snap 🥶 upside.com/business/retai…