If Starmer stands against Streeting, he'll lose.
If he stands against Streeting and Burnham, he'll lose. And, crucially, split the anti-Streeting vote.
Starmer may even fail to get 81 votes by Labour MPs.
Burnham may fail to win a seat.
Therefore, Streeting could eventually win, on a low turnout and a small popular vote.
Sounds like how Labour won in 2024....
There is a route for Andy Burnham to become PM without winning a Commons by-election first: he could be made a Lord. Constitutionally the PM just needs to be a member of one of the two houses of Parliament.
This was Alec Douglas-Home’s route, who became PM in October 1963 as a Lord before winning a by-election to be an MP 20 days later.
It’s an absolutely awful undemocratic look that could sink Burnham’s brand forever, plus of course Starmer may well not want to oblige his nemesis with a peerage. But these are strange and desperate times for Labour.
@JackElsom The local election results completely shatter his myth. If Burnham as mayor had genuinely reconnected Labour with working class voters in his own backyard & his brand was genuinely kryptonite for Reform, thursday should have looked completely different in Manchester and it didn't
Many Labour MPs see Andy Burnham as the prince across the water who can beat Farage.
But don't underestimate those who really aren't fans, including this Cabinet Minister, who tells me:
"People forget just how useless Andy Burnham was in Westminster. He ran two dire leadership campaigns. He was the last one to leave Corbyn’s shadow cabinet only when he saw the writing on the wall. He then went up to Manchester and now wants to come trotting back with the leadership gift-wrapped for him."
@TonyRuttler@CatherineWest1 He was a barely competent minister and was so popular and charismatic he got 19% of the leadership vote in 2015 against Corbyn - the man who lost two general elections. If anyone really thinks Burnham is the saviour they are the epitome of deluded.
@CatherineWest1 Andy Burnham's fingers are all over this lol you need a reality check, Andy won't win any orchestrated by-election no matter where it's held. You really should've got things moving.
I have listened to the Prime Minister's speech this morning. I welcome the renewed energy and ideas. However, I have reluctantly concluded that this morning’s speech was too little too late.
@CatherineWest1 Ok the speech is done, and it was absolutely awful, as expected, please start the leadership contest as he's talking about 8 more years of this, 8 more days is too much
Keir has demonstrated significant leadership on the world stage and is well placed to represent the UK's national interest while this process takes place
Across the country yesterday, so many hard working Labour Councillors lost their seats through no fault of their own. I want to thank them for their service and dedication. 🧵
Growing expectation that a Labour MP will quit over the next few days to trigger a by-election so Andy Burnham can return to Westminster.
A few names have been circulating for a while.
All eyes on the next 48 hours 👀
@clarkaw Don't change PM and you've got 3 years of absolute decay and into the abyss, future council elections with Starmer as PM will be an even bigger disaster, by 2029 the party will no longer exist.
If Labour changes PM, we face 6-12 months of paralysis as new ministers and advisers appointed in every department who take time to familiarise themselves. That’s why the Tories’ repeated leadership omnishambles was so damaging. We must hold firm and focus on delivery.
@SamCoatesSky The votes he's losing to Reform are from Leave voters. Working class, Red Wall, exactly the areas that voted Brexit most heavily, and his big fightback speech is going to be a full throated Pro Eu pitch.
He's essentially just handed Farage a gift wrapped present with a bow on it.
Keir Starmer suggests he’s in office for 10 years
Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to lead Labour at the next general election as he faces the possibility of a leadership challenge after the party’s disastrous local election results.
Asked if he would lead at the next election and serve a full term, he told the Sunday Mirror: “Yes I will, and I’ve always said it’s a decade of national renewal, where the legacy we inherited was an appalling legacy on all fronts, not just the economy, which was broken.”
The Prime Minister said his fightback, which starts with a speech on Monday and the King’s Speech on Wednesday, would include a “full throated” pitch to be closer to Europe.
He told the newspaper that his plan would be “really clear that this is about the hope and opportunity of a better future, part of which is a stronger economy and an economy that really works for everyone, wherever they live, whatever they do. There are a number of strands to that, but one is, we have to be closer to Europe, and I just want to be full throated about this”.
He added: “I feel that Brexit has held back our young people. They should be free to work, study, travel in European countries, just as I was able to when I was growing up.
“That has been smashed away from young people because of Brexit. I’m not going to let Brexit stand in the way of their opportunities, and therefore we’ll push forward on that.”
@Tony_Diver And where is Burnham going to get elected? No such thing as safe labour seats these days and the optics of an orchestrated hand over of a seat is terrible.
Understand that allies of Andy Burnham are desperately trying to convince Catherine West to abandon her leadership bid less than an hour after she launched it.
Lou Haigh is working with colleagues to find a way to get her to drop it. Burnham cannot run.