Tony Addison

🌍My new open access book ’Resources Matter: ending poverty while protecting nature’. Download via @UNUWIDER wider.unu.edu/publication/re…

As experts meet at the 32nd Session of the UN Tax Committee, our latest brief highlights how multinational profit shifting disproportionately harms lower‑income countries—through both immediate revenue losses and long‑term, indirect costs Read more 👉 go.unu.edu/2WGbK

Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts and the UK Gilt market blew up. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-oi…

It strikes me that markets are pricing in more hawkish central bank reaction functions as compared to where central bankers are. I suspect most central bankers are in wait and see mode and will want to see through some of the energy price increase. Unlike 2021, demand is not surging which makes seeing through a defensible strategy. They will likely be more cautious about rate cuts relative to pre-Iran conflict but markets seem to be pricing in much tighter monetary policy.

Can VAT cuts on groceries mitigate the effects of inflation? Research from #DaTaxWB — the @WorldBankGroup's tax data lab, found that while VAT cuts lower prices temporarily, wealthier households benefit the most. Learn more: wrld.bg/li5O50YwpaT

CHART OF THE DAY: Despite sanctions, ahead of the war, Iran's total oil production had hit a 46-year high. Although most of the attention is on crude, Iran has focused in expanding its output of condensates and natural gas liquids — a key export to Asian petrochemical industry.

National averages hide local realities. The latest subnational #poverty database exposes deep inequalities within countries—and highlights where progress has stalled despite national growth. See the data behind the maps 👇 wrld.bg/Um5U50Ywp0N

This chart shows how the US natural gas market is insulated from the conflict in the Middle East 🇺🇸👇 European gas prices surged to the highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Meanwhile, US prices steady due to abundance of supply (thanks to the shale revolution)

The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an even bigger rise... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-we…

“The US is the largest oil & gas producer in the world, & so relatively insulated,” @jfkirkegaard says. But many other countries feel, "not for the first time, they are bearing political & economic consequences of decisions to go to war taken by the US."washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/…

What helps households escape extreme poverty? Our new interactive evidence map brings together 100+ studies on graduation programmes worldwide 🌍 Explore what works, where, and why 👇 🔗theigc.org/blogs/evidence… @Bigd_BracU #PovertyAlleviation #DevEcon

How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war. wsj.com/economy/econom…

CHART OF THE DAY: The White House is fighting to keep the price of WTI crude oil under $100 a barrel. But for America's Main Street what truly matters isn't the price of crude, but the cost of refined products — and those are rising fast. Link to my @Opinion column on reply.

🌍 Updated with 2024 data, the Chinese Loans to Africa Database documents over 1,319 loan commitments amounting to $180.87B from 🇨🇳 Chinese development finance institutions + others to African govs, state-owned enterprises + others. Explore the data: bu.edu/gdp/chinese-lo…

Of course it's possible that oil goes to $200. But that kind of price level basically assumes a return to full shut down for all oil coming out of the Persian Gulf and a very low price elasticity of demand. $200 isn't going to happen and $150 is a stretch. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…

China’s trade surplus has further to rise & will increasingly take sales away from producers in the rest of the world, especially advanced European & Asian economies. Fasten your seat belts for the next China shock, @GagnonMacro & Tamim Bayoumi write: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

We wrote a detailed academic paper about the widening gap between copper supply and demand last month. Now it is highlighted in a format a few people might actually read! “Global copper demand outstrips supply, threatening electrification and industrial growth” theconversation.com/global-copper-…

Each week Qatar’s massive LNG plant remains shut, the world loses enough energy to power Sydney’s homes for an entire year 🇶🇦 ⚠️ Ras Laffan was damaged by an Iranian attack. And the length of its restart & repair timeline will have a huge impact on the global gas market 🧵

QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. reuters.com/business/energ…

Looks like some AI optimism finding its way into FOMC's long run growth forecasts (2% now vs 1.8% in Dec)

Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would put the price hike at more like $150 ... 1/2