TopButton

Prediction: Labor market and inflation will both be weak 1H2026. There’s not enough cuts priced in for 2026. Not because the Fed will bow to Trump but because the data dependent Fed will get that weak job and inflation data.

Presenting the song of the year: The Ballad of the Onion Man. Please enjoy this original composition by our band of concerned citizens.

BIDEN CRIME FAMILY THO

@mattkalish @c89 Not every business is entitled to make money. Have a model that doesn’t ban ppl or continue to face criticism for a business model that involves tipping the scales. “Why do you do bad thing?” “Because, we must profit.” “Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, okay, bad thing is fine then.” Wtf…

@c89 You’re describing the definition of any business. Provide a good or service for more than it costs to provide tf. Not like anyone pretending it’s not gambling, that there isn’t house edge, like company isn’t sustainable/turn a profit etc.

Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)

@mattkalish @NotAndy19 Customer is the entertainment bettor. Just like your business We understand WHY you dont like PMs, they cut into your business. Advantage gamblers will continue to bring their volume to PMs though, so either innovate or live with your inferior product that will lose market share

IMO not really any meaningful sized product anywhere in the world that exists only for pro advantage gamblers to use because by definition they are a business not a customer. Advantage gambling is a business / career in ppls mind. So who’s the customer for that business? It’s only if you combine it with something else eg entertainment / be fun to gamble with in golf or poker or something and ppl don’t mind losing cause you are fun.

@Bonnet657 One of the best trades ever. So easy.

I am going to miss Jerome Powell's consistency. I hope Warsh/Shelton follows the path he's forged 🫡

@earlyvotedata @librab103 What if he did stuff that you believe deserves impeachment and conviction? You get out of the way anyway? Fine if you disagree w the substance of his moves but “do whatever the leader says” is fucking bogus.

@librab103 Or just don’t get in his way? Especially when he’s the elected leader of the party?

A sitting senator at 5%. How embarrassing.

@ilbannay @NYCMayor @ZohranKMamdani …because he called out an international plot to kill Jews, he sounds like Mike Huckabee? Pretty absurd thing to say.

🙄 I don’t even know what to say anymore, bro. It’s honestly getting too much. I defended u so many times, but this is becoming too hard to ignore. For ur information, this👇🏽 happened in NYC a year ago when Ben Gvir, a convicted terrorist and Israel’s so-called national security minister, showed up in the city. He was protected by American police while walking around, yet he got chased by pro-(ISRAELI) Jewish protesters who called him a terrorist and a murderer and told him to get the fuck out of NY. So if the people who are supposed to be on his side call him that, imagine what the rest of them would call’em. Honestly bro, I love u, but you’re starting to sound like a Zionist right now. U’re acting so out of touch, defending these professional crybabies who commit genocide, then cry antisemitism & demand censorship the second their feelings are hurt. But seriously, you lose everything, all of it.. if u don’t arrest Netanyahu like u promised during ur campaign if he comes to the UN, or if you let Israeli soldiers who kill Palestinians every day come to New York without consequence. I was one of ur biggest supporters. I campaigned hard for you and defended you constantly. But if you keep obsessing over antisemitism while ignoring these war criminals, you’re starting to sound like Mike Huckabee‼️

I’m grateful to our NYPD and federal law enforcement partners for disrupting an alleged plot involving a senior member of Kataib Hezbollah — a federally-designated terrorist organization — who was targeting a Manhattan synagogue, as well as Jewish communities across the country. I am relieved that everyone is safe. The unsealing of the terrorism-related charges comes amid an alarming rise in antisemitism across the country. Let me be clear: antisemitism, violent extremism, and terrorism have no place in our city. This kind of hate is despicable. I’m thankful this alleged attack was stopped before any New Yorkers were hurt.

@HowardRoark90 @jakozloski lol thank you! I was very confused 😂

@TopButtonTrades @jakozloski That’s the joke…

"Would you marry someone less intelligent than you?" Outright "no": Women: 45% Men: 8% Women are nearly 6x more likely to rule it out entirely. The single largest gender disparity in our deep-question dataset.

@HowardRoark90 @jakozloski How is it mathematically impossible? Please explain.

@jakozloski ~left without further comment~

@ChristianHeiens Greater male variability hypothesis, realize not many will recognize that acronym

@ChristianHeiens This isn’t that unlikely given GMVH. Only a problem if capable women are excluded solely for being women.

“Why aren’t my preferred demographic groups given a seat at this high level meeting by virtue of their immutable characteristics? This is truly the death of meritocracy.” DEI is not meritocracy, and you can tell that meritocracy is not dead precisely because there is no woman at the table.

Best tag team since the Dudley Boyz

@NickBMarketing @Kalshi “I don’t interact with these markets and I have no idea what I’m talking about but I watched Last Week Tonight one time and I also stayed at a holiday inn express last night.”

@Kalshi You & traders profit off war and murder. You're fuckin trash.

Kalshi x Interactive Brokers One of the largest brokers in the world. Casual, sophisticated, and institutional investors can now trade the future. All in one place.

@Goasoccer @JakeSherman We literally weren’t

@TopButtonTrades @JakeSherman We're talking about Israel committing Genocide right now

A very wild story, witnessed by a reporter, that shows the rampant antisemitism that jews hear quite frequently. and note: lawler isnt jewish.

@LyraDCoulter @JakeSherman …huh? It should stop regardless of what zionists do, what the fuck? Blame the bigots for the bigotry. If they’re motivated by zionist conflation, they’re still bigots.

@JakeSherman Golly, do you suppose if zionists stopped conflating support for Israel's regime of war criminals with all Jews it might stop?

@Goasoccer @JakeSherman Do you say this to Black people when an African nation commits atrocities? Do you tell them that the constant hate speech and threats of violence are “crying about words?” Or no?

@JakeSherman Oh shut the fuck up with this victim shit. People are getting mass murdered by the Israeli regime and you're crying about words from a drunken fool. Miss me with this and Fuck You

@0xTyrael 6am Trump mentions for a Dad whose kids wake up at 720am:

3AM Trump mentions 😅

Leveraging FEC Data to screen campaign staff: Last week, NPR reported on several anonymous campaign staffers who claimed they had profited from trades they made on prediction markets which were placed ahead of polling drops for the campaigns they worked on. The reporting didn’t say which prediction market they traded on, but at Kalshi, campaign staff have always been prohibited from trading in election markets. All markets are subject to 24/7 surveillance on Kalshi, and we are conducting investigations and enforcement as usual. We also go beyond policing insider trading and try to preemptively block potential insiders from trading where possible. To that end, our team has ingested available data from the Federal Election Commission and is actively screening salaried federal campaign employees from trading on a campaign that they work for. This data helps us prevent or detect trading by campaign insiders. We plan to process similar data published at the state level where it’s available and block state campaign staff from trading on campaigns they’ve been associated with, too. Let me be abundantly clear: we police all kinds of insider trading and market manipulation at Kalshi. Congress is also considering a law specifically criminalizing campaign staff from trading on their own campaigns – but we aren’t waiting for additional legislation or regulation to take action on market integrity. If we find this type of activity on our platform, it will be referred to law enforcement and subject to exchange disciplinary action. I encourage all traders to heed the repeated warnings from companies like Kalshi, and from the CFTC and DOJ: engaging in insider or manipulative trading on federal exchanges can get you into serious trouble, and we are continuously working to prevent, detect, and punish it where we find it.

@ChudThoughts @PatonRED @Asmongold @veizau This is true. That doesn’t negate anything he said though. Probably why you reached for that rather than actually counter him.

@PatonRED @Asmongold @veizau Both you and I are way more likely to get shot by a black guy than a cop.

Joe Bartolozzi GOES OFF on people who say Black people are more likely to commit crimes than white people “If you are going to say statistically they do, that is only because of impoverished areas and the lives they’ve been given due to the implications of systemic racism.”