Tom Amello

@infochartingho1 @CraigMilkowski @thestaggieman Don’t know…

@CraigMilkowski @Trackfacts @thestaggieman Do they have access to wagers made & probably payouts on Pick 4s? I always thought that was a No but some are claiming different.

Is this the worst take in horse racing?

@CraigMilkowski @infochartingho1 @thestaggieman Bingo…I get rebates for volume play…

@infochartingho1 @Trackfacts @thestaggieman The problem with that is the rebates. A good horse for them isn't necessarily a good horse for you.

@infochartingho1 @CraigMilkowski @thestaggieman The concern, imo, is the existence of a cadre of wholesale players in cahoots with tracks…

So the complaint is that they are too good due to their superb algorithms and/or inside information they are fed, which could be true. And that when they bet they get tremendous value. If all that is true... Then, If you bet on the CAW horse you should be content And if you didn't bet on the CAW horse, it doesn't matter, your handicapping led you astray

Tune in this morning on @capitalotb TV where you can see “Get Tied On” as @WizardPicks and @Trackfacts recap the 152nd running of the @KentuckyDerby 10am.

@CraigMilkowski @thestaggieman CAWS are the sharpest of the sharpies…feasting on, not only retail players but less sharp sharpies as well. Both retail and less sharp but still sharp are cutting back or leaving the game…unsustainable.

@thestaggieman Why is it a bad take? Racing can't afford to lose CAW handle. But there is no doubt that 35% is too high. In fact, it is way too high. CAW is way better regulated overseas. That is what we need to happen here.

youtu.be/-kb0IDHdMSE Great Get Tied On Show with the Wizard and Tom Amello breaking down the Derby, discussing the huge drop in odds on the Japanese invader and early Preakness thoughts. #Winwiththewizard #preakness

@petedenk @reredevaux @jose93_ortiz Well said, Pete

Plaudits to trainer @reredevaux for staying the course with the blinkers, and to jockey @jose93_ortiz for a beautifully timed ride that played to his mount's strengths while taking advantage of the way this unique race unfolded.

On herd dynamics, I only had one horse in my Elite tier heading into this Kentucky Derby - Renegade. That position holds. Renegade is who I thought he was. But I tossed the winner Golden Tempo. A lot had to happen for Golden Tempo to win the Derby, but I do have a lesson learned:

@HorseToWatch @Equibase The right question…

The official @Equibase Kentucky Derby chart has Golden Tempo losing ground on the leaders from the 1/4 to the 1/8 pole. That obviously didn’t happen (he made up about 3 lengths in that furlong). Why collect GPS data if you’re not going to use it to make the charts more accurate?

@ScottShap34 Excellent point…chaos odds with so many so close…Golden Tempo took money to be underlaid at off odds…

In hindsight my biggest knock on my Derby capping this year is claiming it wasn’t a great crop & all contenders have holes yet not landing on bigger prices. Probably my biggest lesson to take forward.

@ScottShap34 @derby1592 DM and follow me…happy to share

@Trackfacts @derby1592 sell it to the powers that be!

There is nothing that hooks someone in this great game, like winning. By making it harder for new folks to win, you make it far less likely for them to want to come back instead of treating it as entertainment money once a year. I wish we pressed up on that idea more than fashion

@ScottShap34 @derby1592 Scott…the powers have settled on and committed to a “social experience” model…avoiding the difficult task of providing meaningful fan education. The current model is. IMO, a failed model.

@derby1592 @ScottShap34 Lads…been saying for years industry has two experiences to sell: winning/cashing and almost winning/cashing. I have a unique model/concept (grounded in odds and wagering)which gives the casual fan an understanding of how to have those experiences more often.

@ScottShap34 Yes. The “horseplayer high” that comes doing the work and deciphering the complexities of a race, forming an opinion, executing a bet risking your money on that opinion, and then making a score, is unlike any other game. That is what the industry fails to understand and market.

@mrgoodhanddj @1GR8FULGUY @Rennietime Brilliant…

DRF tried to give the Derby exacta to everyone, just have to replace cracked heels and special shoes with First and Second Place @1GR8FULGUY @Rennietime

@OutrunTheOdds @reredevaux @jose93_ortiz @mdomhokie Sara…agree…I freely admit the many ways folks I have met through Thoroughbred Racing have enriched my life.

What I love most about horse racing - opportunity to share a moment that's never happened before Congratulations to @reredevaux, @jose93_ortiz, Golden Tempo, and all connections on taking #KentuckyDerby 152 from post 16 (and thanks @mdomhokie for remembering how to count 😅)

@failedtomenace @KentuckyDerby @KaylieShapiro13 @NYRABets Disagree…always track …odds have not moved enough to change position since they opened on Thursday…

The odds are ever changing leading up to @KentuckyDerby 152. @KaylieShapiro13 and I regroup to talk overlays and underlays based upon the early odds. Who are you betting on @NYRABets?

@Pick4win Repole = NYC Italian… all ya need to know…

#ChurchillDowns Repole thinks he's SO important... 🤣 Why is his always touching Todd or his jockey?

@petedembroski @CraigMilkowski @NBCSports But they were compelled to do so…they said what little they could… but now everyone has heard of odds drops…

@CraigMilkowski So nice that the @NBCSports coverage spent a whopping 15 seconds talking about that.

T O Elvis had projected odds of 15-1 at DRF. Those used to work pretty well. They weren't perfect, but reasonable. Now they just get steamrolled by CAWs.

@HorseToWatch @RubenFanDuelTV Double Bingo…

Kentucky Derby Day is one of the rare opportunities we still have to gain new customers, and this creates a terrible impression for those not already familiar with the downsides of betting on our sport. We certainly know how to push them away!

T O Elvis was dazzling, and anyone who watched his last race can’t be surprised he just did that. But hopefully this race serves as a needed inflection point around the lack of regulation of CAW wagering, because that was as egregious as you’ll see.

@HorseToWatch @belmostickey Bingo!!! Cat outta the management bag when Moss, Bailey and Tarico are compelled to explain/discuss for a national audience.

One the biggest bets made loading into the gate 12-1 to 5-1. Massive bet placed on this horse-biggest drop I've ever seen. The score of the century by whomever has the inside scope on this Japanese invader. #winwiththewizard