John Fortune

🇯🇵 Overnight swap indexes show markets are pricing in ~19% chance of a hike of the Japanese benchmark rate to 1% this month, down from around 55% at the start of the week after news of the collapse of US-Iran talks over the weekend The chances rise to ~76% for a move by June $UsdJpy

A bottom tier sponsor just marked down its Red Lobster equity position 98% OVERNIGHT. Oddly, that equity position was in a “private credit” fund. Disturbingly, that fund’s large Red Lobster debt holding is marked at par, even though the equity was basically wiped out OVERNIGHT. RUN!!!

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in full effect Iran is currently considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing the US and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks $Wti

🇯🇵 Markets slash odds of another rate hike this month after BoJ chief Ueda spurned the chance to give an obvious rate hike hint in his recent speech - something he had done twice previously before hiking rates Pricing in the overnight swaps market now shows traders see ~32% chance of a hike at this month’s policy meeting, down from ~55% before the speech $UsdJpy

Hey Claude: What's the historical market track record when oil rises 50% in a month? Then falls 20% a week later Then rises 10% a week later Then falls 10% a week later Then rises 15% a week later No mistakes please

🇺🇸 US Inflation surged in March by the most in nearly four years after a record increase in gas prices The consumer price index rose 0.9% from February and it picked up to 3.3% YoY, the strongest pace since 2024 $Dxy $EurUsd

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Crude Oil falls below $100/b as the US and Iran agree a 2 week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz $Wti

🇯🇵 Japanese Business Inflation Expectations Hit Record High Firms are now expecting general price growth to be 2.5% five years from now, up from a 2.4% forecast three months ago $UsdJpy

🇺🇸 US Treasury Yields are falling as swaps start to price rate cuts from the Federal Reserve towards the end of the year Markets are now starting to fear higher $Wti prices will result in a growth shock, rather than just an inflation shock

🇪🇺 German inflation accelerated sharply in March with energy costs soaring by 7.2%, the first increase since December 2023, as the effects of the Iran War begin to take hold across Europe $EurUsd

$EurUsd is set for its worst quarter in over a year as Europe’s dependence on energy imports continues to dampen the EU economic outlook as tensions rise in the Persian Gulf Markets now pricing in three interest-rate hikes from the ECB this year