Trader in Shadow

@AperionPhygas @seanhannity Trump is the one who destabilizes the world and starts wars everywhere.

Trump is correct. There will be a Golden Age. A Western aligned and enlightened Iran brings peace and stability to the Middle East and world tensions between religions and cultures. That will coincide with a global economic boom as the shadow of conflict is lifted off that region.

Victor Davis Hanson says global signals suggest the tide is turning against Iran, arguing U.S. military dominance and shifting alliances point toward a potential collapse if pressure continues: “There’s enough evidence to see how things are really going. Europeans would never agree to go anywhere near Iran unless they thought the tide was turning and that we’re going to win. Otherwise, they would keep still. And the reason that the petro nations of the Gulf survive is they have their finger in the wind and are very attuned to the climate. When you have Al Jazeera praising the United States’ bombing campaign and saying that it’s been underestimated and is brilliant and effective, you get the feeling that they think not only should the United States finish the job, but that it can and will finish the job. So you put it all together, and I think it’s pretty clear that this rope-a-dope strategy—that we’re going to tire before they do—is dependent on public opinion, the midterms, and the United States. And if Trump sees it through—and I think he will—I think they’re going to fall pretty soon.”

@tig88411109 And is Epstein evil? Why aren’t his clients exposed and prosecuted in the US?

@tig88411109 Just one simple question for you: is what Israel did to Gaza evil and what’s the role of US in this?

为何ALL IN 美国，为何 Buy the dip 任何事件性冲击都是短暂的，而留下的余音，除了让世界认识到美国的根本，是对于世界任何邪恶反人类政权无情打击的秩序维护者。二战如此，今天亦如此。 更重要是市场总归会意识到美国的能源独立，以及AI巨大创新，在人类历史前所未有。 公开上周下半部分订阅内容

@CorySwan It’s naive to underestimate this administration’s stupidity. There’s no 5d chess play here.

What if the simplest explanation for the Iran War is this: The U.S. knows it cannot spend the next few decades in full opposition to both Russia and China at the same time. That is not a sustainable grand strategy. So eventually, it was always going to need a path to de-escalate with Russia and pull it at least somewhat away from China. But Ukraine made that politically toxic. Russia’s 2022 invasion made any overture to Moscow look impossible, especially with Europe watching. So what changes the board? A greater evil. Iran fits that role perfectly: openly anti-American since 1979, longtime state sponsor of terrorism, and the mortal enemy of Israel, our strongest ally in the region. So applying Occam’s razor, maybe the simplest explanation is not that Netanyahu dragged the U.S. into conflict with Iran. Maybe conflict with Iran creates the strategic opening Washington needed: political cover to step back from Ukraine, let Russia become the lesser evil again, and begin the long realignment that matters most. The grand game is China.

@CheckedOutCat @CieloBonit There’s a two-term limit in the US.

I think you are misunderstanding him.Trump is running in 2028. Cernovich is not stupid enough to think Tucker and Joe Kent would ever stand a chance against the King. I think he’s saying, it’s laughable when you try to argue them as serious candidates for anything. They couldn’t even win their white hating Muslim base. They’re the wrong color.

Glad I blocked this douche a long time ago. Just another traitor.

@EvanWritesOnX How’s it regime change if same group of people still hold power?

Remember how I said, they will allow Iran to change its regime on its own terms, and as a consequence, downgrade its regional power status? Netanyahu is speaking truth here.

@williamlab Because Iran has severely degraded their defense ability during the early days of the war.

昨晚我还比较震惊的是伊朗确认要反击周边国家后，还先给了清单，明确告知要炸这几个地方，通知赶快疏散。 完事儿几个小时后才炸，然后确实是炸这几个地方。 说明现代战争已经可以默认没有防守了，无论强弱方，都是进攻方。不存在能不能炸，只存在应不应该炸，纯粹博弈了。

@analagousspam @ChairmanRabbit USA helped KMT, which was defeated by CCP in the civil war following WWII. KMT fled to Taiwan. CCP was supported by the Soviets.

@ChairmanRabbit It’s odd that China was helped by the USA but it’s Japan that became an ally. What happened there? Something is missing. Why does China want so badly to subvert and destroy the USA?

Allow me to share the perspective of average educated Chinese people toward Japan: 1. Japan is a society that "worships strength." 2. Japan is a highly hierarchical society with strong feudal characteristics, interpreting the world through the framework of rank and status. 3. Power, often military power, serves as the foundation for establishing hierarchical order in human societies. 4. Historically, Japan viewed China as the highest-ranking civilization. As part of the Sinosphere, Japan existed as a tributary or quasi-tributary state of China. 5. When Japan witnessed the decline of the Chinese Empire (the Qing Dynasty), it decisively turned to the West. This shift marked the Meiji Restoration and the policy of "Datsu-A Ron" (Leaving Asia, Joining Europe), adopting Western institutions and distancing itself from Chinese civilizational influence. 6. Japan further solidified its perceived position in the global civilizational hierarchy through victories in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War. 7. Emulating European colonialism, Japan began viewing the invasion and colonising of other nations as a legitimate means to elevate its status—a reflection of the pre-20th century world order. 8. In the 1930s, Japan launched a war of aggression against China, aiming to colonize it, utilize its resources for growth, dominate Asia (through the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere"), and challenge the West. 9. Believing its comprehensive strength had matured, Japan eventually initiated war against the United States and Western powers, with the attack on Pearl Harbor representing the peak of this ambition. 10. Japan was ultimately defeated not by America's formidable fleet and marines alone, but by two atomic bombs, despite its industrial inferiority to the U.S. 11. Following the atomic bombings, Japan surrendered. At that moment, it re-established its understanding of the global hierarchy: the United States, capable of deploying such devastating weapons, was the undisputed master. Japan would henceforth submit completely to the U.S., emulating—however superficially—its institutions, social structures, popular culture, values, and all facets of American life. This was not an abandonment of Japanese culture and tradition, but an effort to remake itself in America's image. Post-war Japan became, in essence, a "neutered dog." 12. Thus, a peculiar dynamic emerged. While other nations may view the U.S. as a hegemon or ally while retaining the right to criticize, Japan regards America as a suzerain and an object of worship, refraining from any criticism. Psychologically, this relationship is inherently unequal because Japan, as a hierarchical and strength-worshipping society, believes it must remain subordinate to the nation that defeated it in war. 13. This also explains why Japan appears to live in a world that is decades old. It clings to a unipolar worldview where America remains the undisputed leader—much like a low-ranking yakuza member maintaining loyalty to a fading gang boss. 14. What unsettles Japan most is the rise of China. Japan struggles to confront the very power and cultural suzerain it abandoned over a century ago. Only a struggle that reshapes this order can change that. 15. Either Japan must be defeated by China, or the U.S. must be defeated by China, or a new power relationship is established (hence not technically a "defeat"). This contest could take military, technological, economic, or cultural forms. 16. But Japan inevitably requires such a reconfiguration to rebuild its understanding of the world order, for this is how it comprehends the world. 17. For now, at least, Japan has only one object of worship: the United States. This is the reason behind the obsequious demeanor of politicians like Sanae Takaichi toward figures like Donald Trump

@JTLonsdale It’s no good vs. evil on this. Are you saying the Epstein and associates are the good ones? Also, it isn’t about freedom and democracy; how many US allies in the Middle East are democracies? It’s all about oil.

Balaji is a bright guy but he fled the USA and has set his mind totally against our future success. He lives in a world where US is losing and China is winning. This is his fixation. It’s dangerous, and it’s wrong. And this war has embarrassed China, destroyed their 100 cargo planes of war materials and their military ally, and frustrates them. It’s fair to disagree about the attack. But saying that its architects are guilty of any downside is childlike nonsense. They should be proud of their work and their courage to take on this evil. If you’re against the war, do you get credit for the last two decades of literal mass torture and mass rape and repression by this regime, and its terror funding and death around the region? Do you get credit for “supporting” the billions it spends on social media bots and information operations to polarize the US against ourselves, and weaken the west? Do you also get credit for what would have been the next twenty years of that? Are you, Balaji, responsible for that side of it? No? But if you are for it, you get zero credit for fixing any of that, but blamed for ALL the possible downsides? Total BS. The mullahs holding the region hostage shouldn’t get your help to blame others for the damage they do. Geopolitics and war is complex and there are risks on all sides. There is risk in acting, and in not acting. I’m really glad we are taking advantage of the massive innovation and competence gap that exists at this moment, and finally eliminating so much evil. I hope for freedom for the Iranian people and know that the situation is hard and complex, but either way it is good to stop the bad guys and eliminate so many of the worst groups, who have done so much damage, from history. Nobody should get away with what those bastards did for so long; this was long overdue.

@EvanWritesOnX If it’s theater, why would Israel attack Iran’s LNG facilities in the first place? It’s permission-less from America, as Trump stated.

Called it again. Instead of bloodshed, permission-less destruction, troop mobilization, region wide participation into the “war”, all we’re getting is contract resets and restructuring around economic deals. Managed theatre.

@thedefivillain Thought MAGA were anti-war?

This Iran war might be one of the clearest examples of Rashomon effect I've seen in a long time People see broadly the same events and information, yet draw radically different conclusions depending on their initial biases With each passing day, anti-war/anti-Zionist/TDS people grow more convinced it’s a disaster, while MAGA/pro-war/Zionist people grow more convinced it’s a success

@udiWertheimer Killing is not the answer. You cannot kill your way to make others love you. You gotta learn to live in peace with others.

if americans had 5% of the resilience israelis have they’d be unstoppable every israeli lost someone on oct 7. they’ve been under daily missile attacks since. yet their spirits are up and they’re WINNING americans endure 2 weeks of mild market volatility and LOSE THEIR SHIT

@Killa_Daze @adamscochran How do you defend it?

@adamscochran 200 billion to be spent mostly in the States. While not a fan, the truth is war is good for our economy. If we take Kharg Island and steady exports, WTI will be back at 65 by June.

Where is the "no more foreign wars" and "dont send our money overseas" crowd now?

@PredictFolio Stupid to start another war when one is still ongoing.

🚨Someone just bought $57K of US invading Cuba! His purchase caused the market to spike to 85%, it's now back to 33%. Is action imminent?

@sb_quest @zerohedge You.

@TraderinShadow @zerohedge We って、 だれ？

JAPAN MULLS DEPLOYING JSDF TO MIDEAST FOR INFO-GATHERING: RTRS

@nic_carter @TXMCtrades @joekent16jan19 Is there no other way to deal with it? Have you consulted with allies? Most importantly, if your objective is regime change, the US is losing this war. Why start a war you can’t win? Worst case scenario, the US will have to leave the Middle East altogether when this wraps up.

@TXMCtrades @joekent16jan19 Iran is the #1 source of and sponsor of terror on the planet, not sure you were aware this is quite widely known

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.

@kinetic_finance @MartyBent Can you criticize their government?

last week might have been the moment El Salvador became Dubai 2.0, and nobody is talking about it: > safest country in the western hemisphere for 4 years in a row > no middle east war or fallout risk > 0% tax on all foreign-sourced income > 0% property tax > dollarized economy > bitcoin is legal tender, 0% cap gains tax > inflation under 1% > 90-min direct flights to Miami for <$200 > 4-6 hour flights to SFO and NYC for <$400 > world-class surfing > democratically elected president w/ 85%+ approval rating. > first country to give open-source AI developers full legal protection > first country with a sovereign order of NVIDIA's B300 chips > @elonmusk grok AI in 1M+ public school kids' hands > democratically elected president with a 85%+ approval rating > world-class surfing > locally grown coffee, tropical fruit, grass-fed beef - not a supermarket import economy > huge variety of climates - volcanoes, mountains, lakes, and beaches — 12c in the highlands, 34c on the coast > strong christian culture and deep sense of faith > same timezone as US East Coast > country investing massively in public education > beautiful colonial architecture across country

@eigenrobot US fought a much weaker China in 1950s and couldn’t win. You think they can win now, without the allies?

i think the main lesson here is that in a war with china the us can expect zero (0) help from europe and we should probably plan accordingly and adjust our asset placement to reflect europe's go-forward value to us

@DrEliDavid @BillAckman NATO is a defense alliance, not an attack alliance. Membership doesn’t grant the right to start reckless wars and expect others to intervene when the attacked retaliate.

NATO is worthless. America just learned that its only reliable ally is a non-NATO country 🇮🇱

@MattWallace888 He farted apparently.

JD and Andrew turn at the exact same time when Trump starts talking about nuclear weapons‼️ Does that mean what I think it means? 👀