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Venkat@9Venkatesh2023·17m

@TradersCult_IN What about the gap to probable new low. Any such possibility?

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·34m

Same ceasefire. Different recovery. Since the Apr 7 intraday low: → S&P 500: +9.06% → new all-time high (7,126) → Nifty 50: +7.21% → still 7.7% below its Jan 5 peak (26,373) The bounce differential is small (185 bps). The destination gap (to new high for Nifty) is wide (770 bps). Why the asymmetry? The US rally runs on AI earnings. Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle — companies whose margins don't care whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. Tech earnings made the war irrelevant to ~45% of S&P market cap. The India rally runs on oil that does care. 85% of our crude is imported. The rupee still sits near ₹93. FPI flows are still net negative for FY26. Hormuz reopening helps, but it only unwinds the damage — it doesn't reset the baseline. Bullish on India. Honest about the gaps. One economy bought new highs on AI. The other is still paying rent on the war. Hartnett's calling the S&P a bull trap. Nifty hasn't even finished the round trip. — Math, not politics.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·12m

@sardesairajdeep Urgency is the need of the hour. Market already factored the winner. Net FPI are almost ZERO. INR depreciating. Even ceasefire news has not cut the risk. x.com/TradersCult_IN…

Same ceasefire. Different recovery. Since the Apr 7 intraday low: → S&P 500: +9.06% → new all-time high (7,126) → Nifty 50: +7.21% → still 7.7% below its Jan 5 peak (26,373) The bounce differential is small (185 bps). The destination gap (to new high for Nifty) is wide (770 bps). Why the asymmetry? The US rally runs on AI earnings. Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle — companies whose margins don't care whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. Tech earnings made the war irrelevant to ~45% of S&P market cap. The India rally runs on oil that does care. 85% of our crude is imported. The rupee still sits near ₹93. FPI flows are still net negative for FY26. Hormuz reopening helps, but it only unwinds the damage — it doesn't reset the baseline. Bullish on India. Honest about the gaps. One economy bought new highs on AI. The other is still paying rent on the war. Hartnett's calling the S&P a bull trap. Nifty hasn't even finished the round trip. — Math, not politics.

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Rajdeep Sardesai@sardesairajdeep·41m

Sunday morning reality check: Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz again, fires at two Indian carriers. If we are done with Weapons of Mass Distractions (WMDs) and the election-focussed grandstanding on ‘Nari Shakti’, (if really serious, nothing stops parties from giving 33% tickets to women without even reservation) could we get back to the core issue that is impacting the economy and needs urgent national attention? 🙏 #IranWar‌

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·15m

@AEstrellaGabil If 5x lands by 2027: ChatGPT Plus: $20 (8.2% of Indian per-capita income) → $100 (41%). Grok Heavy: $300 (already 122%) → $1,500 (6x a month's income). The subsidy window is the access window. When it shuts, AI becomes a sovereign-wealth product. 😂

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Alejandro Estrella Gabilondo@AEstrellaGabil·1h

@TradersCult_IN you cannot adjust the plans to India. Right now those prices are subsidized. Once they cannot keep giving computing power away, those prices will go up 5x. Expect this to happen or early 2027.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·12 Nis

The AI Access Gap. Same tool. Same price. Different planet. As % of monthly income: 🇺🇸 $20/mo = 0.3% 🇮🇳 $20/mo = 8.2% 🇺🇸 $200/mo = 2.8% 🇮🇳 $200/mo = 82% Grok Heavy ($300) costs more than India's entire monthly per capita income. The revolution is global. The access isn't

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·16m

@GajendraMaury14 India the collateral damage. Market already knows the winner. S&P 500 at all time high. Nifty still far from highs x.com/TradersCult_IN…

Same ceasefire. Different recovery. Since the Apr 7 intraday low: → S&P 500: +9.06% → new all-time high (7,126) → Nifty 50: +7.21% → still 7.7% below its Jan 5 peak (26,373) The bounce differential is small (185 bps). The destination gap (to new high for Nifty) is wide (770 bps). Why the asymmetry? The US rally runs on AI earnings. Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle — companies whose margins don't care whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. Tech earnings made the war irrelevant to ~45% of S&P market cap. The India rally runs on oil that does care. 85% of our crude is imported. The rupee still sits near ₹93. FPI flows are still net negative for FY26. Hormuz reopening helps, but it only unwinds the damage — it doesn't reset the baseline. Bullish on India. Honest about the gaps. One economy bought new highs on AI. The other is still paying rent on the war. Hartnett's calling the S&P a bull trap. Nifty hasn't even finished the round trip. — Math, not politics.

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Finance Learner@GajendraMaury14·30m

The Strait of Hormuz is open. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Strait of Hormuz is open again. The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. The Strait of Hormuz is open again again. The Strait of Hormuz is closed again again. THIS IS RIDICULOUS. #StraitOfHormuz #Iran #GlobalShipping #OilMarket #Geopolitics #BreakingNews #Maritime #EnergyCrisis #WorldNews

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·21m

Skip Grok. Human version WHO HAS LEVERAGE → Iran has Hormuz — 20% of global crude. Every threat = oil spike → Trump has tariffs + sanctions → Netanyahu = escalation trigger → Real boss: the oil market Nifty $ S&P-Already factoring this x.com/TradersCult_IN…

Same ceasefire. Different recovery. Since the Apr 7 intraday low: → S&P 500: +9.06% → new all-time high (7,126) → Nifty 50: +7.21% → still 7.7% below its Jan 5 peak (26,373) The bounce differential is small (185 bps). The destination gap (to new high for Nifty) is wide (770 bps). Why the asymmetry? The US rally runs on AI earnings. Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle — companies whose margins don't care whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. Tech earnings made the war irrelevant to ~45% of S&P market cap. The India rally runs on oil that does care. 85% of our crude is imported. The rupee still sits near ₹93. FPI flows are still net negative for FY26. Hormuz reopening helps, but it only unwinds the damage — it doesn't reset the baseline. Bullish on India. Honest about the gaps. One economy bought new highs on AI. The other is still paying rent on the war. Hartnett's calling the S&P a bull trap. Nifty hasn't even finished the round trip. — Math, not politics.

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CA Vivek Khatri@CaVivekkhatri·59m

Trump and Iran are saying the war could resume anytime despite the ceasefire talks. As an Indian, I’m worried about oil prices and the rupee. Give me the cold, unfiltered breakdown: What are the realistic scenarios and probabilities in the next 30-60 days? Who actually has the leverage here - Trump, Iran, Netanyahu, or someone else? And what does this mean for fuel prices and the Indian economy? @grok Answer.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·1h

Zoom out Your "chatbot that writes code" costs $20/mo. For US dev, that's 0.3% of income. For an Indian dev, 8.2%. Grok Heavy at $300 =more than India's entire monthly per capita income The question isn't who needs your code. It's who can afford the bot x.com/TradersCult_IN…

The AI Access Gap. Same tool. Same price. Different planet. As % of monthly income: 🇺🇸 $20/mo = 0.3% 🇮🇳 $20/mo = 8.2% 🇺🇸 $200/mo = 2.8% 🇮🇳 $200/mo = 82% Grok Heavy ($300) costs more than India's entire monthly per capita income. The revolution is global. The access isn't

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BURKOV@burkov·2h

The truth is, no one, including those who are working on LLMs, knows whether they will have a job in computing next year or beyond. The only successful AI app is a chatbot that writes code. But who needs your code if they can just use this app and get the same code?

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·13h

@IndianTechGuide Half-true. The other half is access ChatGPT Pro ($20/mo) = 0.3% of US per-capita income Same tool in India = 8.2% Grok Heavy ($300) costs more than India's entire monthly per capita income x.com/TradersCult_IN…

The AI Access Gap. Same tool. Same price. Different planet. As % of monthly income: 🇺🇸 $20/mo = 0.3% 🇮🇳 $20/mo = 8.2% 🇺🇸 $200/mo = 2.8% 🇮🇳 $200/mo = 82% Grok Heavy ($300) costs more than India's entire monthly per capita income. The revolution is global. The access isn't

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Indian Tech & Infra@IndianTechGuide·13h

🚨 India had AI talent but lacks breakout ideas, says Y combinator’s Jared Friedman.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·13h

@steve_hanke Hanke framework applied to India: Currency in Circulation +11.9% YoY (Mar 2026 all-time high, ₹41.68T). Cash-to-GDP: 14.4% (FY21) → 11% (FY26). Absolute cash rising. Relative share falling. Digital absorbing the growth, cash absorbing the uncertainty. x.com/TradersCult_IN…

UPI transactions: +30% — 241.6 billion transactions processed in FY26. Cash in circulation: +11% (₹41.68 trillion — all-time high). Both up. Same year. The scale check: UPI moved ₹314 trillion in FY26 — 7.5x the entire physical cash stock. And cash still grew by over ₹4 trillion. Why is the world's most digital economy hoarding more cash than ever? Three reasons: 1. Tax fear. Karnataka issued 18,000 GST notices to small traders — using UPI data as evidence. Vendors put up "No UPI, Only Cash" signs. Cash = invisible. UPI = auditable. 2.Precautionary hoarding. Oil volatile. Rupee at record lows. Inflation sticky. Rural India holds cash when it's uncertain about what's next. 3. Informal economy. India's informal sector is 80%+ of employment. It runs on cash. UPI handles transactions. Cash stores value, NO AUDIT, NO TRAIL SBI's Chief Economist: "Digital payments change how India transacts. Not how it stores value." Not just India. Cash is rising globally for the 3rd straight year. $11T still circulates worldwide (Visa). Digital India transacts digitally. It still saves in cash.

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Steve Hanke@steve_hanke·13h

Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·13h

India's chapter of that story: → 150 GW of solar (3rd largest in the world) → Added 44 GW in one year — a record → Renewables now meet 40% of India's power capacity Still importing 85% of our oil. But the sun is finally pulling weight.

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Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·13h

Renewables just hit 49.4% of global electricity capacity. 5.15 terawatts. Solar drove 75% of the new additions. Some people thought it was impossible.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·13h

@amit_code 312 followers in 2 months feels like climbing a mountain. Hope Content help in scaling fast.

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Amit Jha@amit_code·14h

One thousand followers sounds small. It's also 1,000 real people who choose you.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·14h

@CNBCTV18News Bigger picture underneath: → Apple components to China: $2.5B (record) → Mobile exports under PLI: +775% → Jobs: 14.4 lakh created → India used to import phone parts from China. Now exports them TO China. Proof of concept. Now scale it. x.com/TradersCult_IN…

1/ China just reported 5% GDP growth today — beat estimates. India: 6.5% (IMF) — fastest major economy. Both growing through a war. Only one built the shock absorbers. A thread on what China built, what India proved — and what India must do next. 🧵

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CNBC-TV18@CNBCTV18News·14h

India’s Apple component exports have reached a record $2.5 billion, marking strong growth in the electronics sector. The trend reflects a shift in electronics trade dynamics with China. Watch: youtu.be/HFoOUmk436M #India #Apple #Exports #Electronics #PLI #Manufacturing #MakeInIndia #China #Trade #AmitabhKant

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·14h

@juheonju146904 정확하세요. 한국은행도 2023년부터 5만원권 순발행이 대부분이에요 — 거래용이 아니라 가치 저장용으로.

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주헌주🩸@juheonju146904·15h

우리나라도 이거 심해 저기 어디 경기도 어느 창고에 5만원 짜리 파레트로 있고 그럼

UPI transactions: +30% — 241.6 billion transactions processed in FY26. Cash in circulation: +11% (₹41.68 trillion — all-time high). Both up. Same year. The scale check: UPI moved ₹314 trillion in FY26 — 7.5x the entire physical cash stock. And cash still grew by over ₹4 trillion. Why is the world's most digital economy hoarding more cash than ever? Three reasons: 1. Tax fear. Karnataka issued 18,000 GST notices to small traders — using UPI data as evidence. Vendors put up "No UPI, Only Cash" signs. Cash = invisible. UPI = auditable. 2.Precautionary hoarding. Oil volatile. Rupee at record lows. Inflation sticky. Rural India holds cash when it's uncertain about what's next. 3. Informal economy. India's informal sector is 80%+ of employment. It runs on cash. UPI handles transactions. Cash stores value, NO AUDIT, NO TRAIL SBI's Chief Economist: "Digital payments change how India transacts. Not how it stores value." Not just India. Cash is rising globally for the 3rd straight year. $11T still circulates worldwide (Visa). Digital India transacts digitally. It still saves in cash.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·14h

@DivaJain2 On "piss-poor tax collection" — the structural picture: 81.8M Indian taxpayers = 5.64% of 145 Cr population. Karnataka just issued 18,000 GST notices to small traders based on UPI data. Vendors went back to cash. The narrow-base math, unpacked: x.com/TradersCult_IN…

UPI transactions: +30% — 241.6 billion transactions processed in FY26. Cash in circulation: +11% (₹41.68 trillion — all-time high). Both up. Same year. The scale check: UPI moved ₹314 trillion in FY26 — 7.5x the entire physical cash stock. And cash still grew by over ₹4 trillion. Why is the world's most digital economy hoarding more cash than ever? Three reasons: 1. Tax fear. Karnataka issued 18,000 GST notices to small traders — using UPI data as evidence. Vendors put up "No UPI, Only Cash" signs. Cash = invisible. UPI = auditable. 2.Precautionary hoarding. Oil volatile. Rupee at record lows. Inflation sticky. Rural India holds cash when it's uncertain about what's next. 3. Informal economy. India's informal sector is 80%+ of employment. It runs on cash. UPI handles transactions. Cash stores value, NO AUDIT, NO TRAIL SBI's Chief Economist: "Digital payments change how India transacts. Not how it stores value." Not just India. Cash is rising globally for the 3rd straight year. $11T still circulates worldwide (Visa). Digital India transacts digitally. It still saves in cash.

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Diva Jain@DivaJain2·16h

7% for a Sovereign bond with three year tenor is very very steep. For reference Adani raised $500 million in March at 8.5% (all in cost) for 15 years.

Kushan Mitra@kushanmitra

That is pretty insane for sovereign debt; in a country with piss-poor tax collection

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·14h

@amanjulka4 Absolutely.

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aman_julka@amanjulka4·15h

@TradersCult_IN Structural change required. All need to come under ambiet of tax for taxes to rationalize.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·15h

UPI transactions: +30% — 241.6 billion transactions processed in FY26. Cash in circulation: +11% (₹41.68 trillion — all-time high). Both up. Same year. The scale check: UPI moved ₹314 trillion in FY26 — 7.5x the entire physical cash stock. And cash still grew by over ₹4 trillion. Why is the world's most digital economy hoarding more cash than ever? Three reasons: 1. Tax fear. Karnataka issued 18,000 GST notices to small traders — using UPI data as evidence. Vendors put up "No UPI, Only Cash" signs. Cash = invisible. UPI = auditable. 2.Precautionary hoarding. Oil volatile. Rupee at record lows. Inflation sticky. Rural India holds cash when it's uncertain about what's next. 3. Informal economy. India's informal sector is 80%+ of employment. It runs on cash. UPI handles transactions. Cash stores value, NO AUDIT, NO TRAIL SBI's Chief Economist: "Digital payments change how India transacts. Not how it stores value." Not just India. Cash is rising globally for the 3rd straight year. $11T still circulates worldwide (Visa). Digital India transacts digitally. It still saves in cash.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·1d

@RShivshankar The rupee compression is real — and RBI just deployed the tools to slow it. This week: $500-550M/day OMC dollar demand rerouted off the spot market. Forward book absorbed the rest. Tactical win. Structural bleed stays. Full breakdown: x.com/TradersCult_IN…

3 weeks ago we mapped RBI's 5 moves to defend the rupee. This week, two of them quietly went live. Rupee: ₹94.90 → ₹92.92. The headlines chased the oil crash. The real story was in the footnotes. Arsenal deployed. Rupee stabilizing. Dependencies unchanged.

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Rahul Shivshankar@RShivshankar·1d

OPTICS MATTER. WARS DISTORT REALITY. ONE MAY END BUT THE OTHER RAGES LARGELY UNCONTESTED. Despite 7–8% GDP growth, a weaker rupee vs the US dollar is shrinking India’s economy in nominal terms. TRUMP'S WAR ON IRAN and TRUMP'S TARIFF WAR have induced a strong dollar cycle amplifying the pressure. If crude softens and so do Trump's tariff blows and FPI flows return after the market correction, the rupee could recover pushing India back to 4 by 2027, and possibly 3 in the early 2030s.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·1d

Fair point. The structural lens makes it sharper: FII share of Indian equities: 20.2% (2015) → 16.0% (Jan 2025) → lower today They've been trimming for a decade, not just panicking now The real shift: DIIs + SIPs absorbed ₹26K Cr/month through the war Who owns India is changing. Not who's leaving

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Piyush Trades@piyush_trades·1d

FIIs have sold only ₹5.1 lakh crore of Indian stocks since 2024 till today, and people have already started panicking. Let me inform them that FIIs still hold more than ₹70L crore of investments left in india, which they’ll also sell if things don’t improve.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·1d

The fab economics: ₹91,000 Cr ≈ $10.8B Comparable fabs: TSMC, Samsung ($10-20B range) Output focus: AI-enabled chips Timeline: 3-5 years to first silicon India chip imports: ~$30B/yr One fab won't flip the dependency. It flips the trajectory.

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Indian Infra Report@Indianinfoguide·1d

🚨India's first chip fabrication plant SEZ is notified in Dholera, Gujarat. Tata Semiconductor Manufacturing Private Limited will invest Rs 91,000 crore.

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·1d

@RITABEHERA22257 Yes That's the way forward.

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RITA BEHERA@RITABEHERA22257·1d

@TradersCult_IN FPI tax rationalisation-A long pending ask

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TradersCult_IN@TradersCult_IN·1d

3 weeks ago we mapped RBI's 5 moves to defend the rupee. This week, two of them quietly went live. Rupee: ₹94.90 → ₹92.92. The headlines chased the oil crash. The real story was in the footnotes. Arsenal deployed. Rupee stabilizing. Dependencies unchanged.

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