Alejandro Estrella Gabilondo

@MarioNawfal @RoundtableSpace There are no millions jobless because of AI. Who told you that story? Your uncle Dario?

While the world is distracted by Iran, AI is ALREADY making millions jobless & getting ever closer to breaking out of human control I break this down on @RoundtableSpace where I track whats actually happening in AI so youre not left behind Not enough people are paying attention

@arunrafi @BoringBiz_ Resource ≠ skill

@BoringBiz_ Accompanying the wave of creation will be a larger wave of frustration. "I can't because I lack resources" is uncomfortable but safe. "I had every resource and still couldn't make something good" is something else..frustration.

People are waking up to the fact that AI is a complementary tool for your skill set, and not a complete replacement for a skill If you are already a good coder or writer, AI tools can enhance that skill and make you more productive But if you bad at it, AI is not going to magically solve your deficiency This is the primary reason why I think the fears around AI replacement of labor are overblown

@BoringBiz_ He will have greater chances by learning python and SQL, do some bona fide data engineering to gain experience. Saas means nothing, nobody hires you to do a “Saas app”.

@Codie_Sanchez Sorry to bring the bad news but there is no evidence, anywhere, of cost cuts by AI. And the newer models burn at least twice the number of tokens with the same hallucinations and success rate of <80%. If you do not use AI for real life work, you will end up parroting the hype.

A lot of smart people are paralyzed right now - convinced AI is going to change everything but not doing anything about it. The people I'm not worried about are the ones buying a $500k HVAC company and using AI to cut their back-office costs in half. Pick a business, use the tools to boost efficiency, and let everyone else argue about what's coming.

@r0ck3t23 “Never trust a guy with red socks” my grandma used to say.

Eric Schmidt just called AGI the most important event in a thousand years of human history. Then the interviewer brought up radical abundance and UBI. Eric Schmidt: “You tech liberal you.” Every traditional economist already knows the rebuttal. UBI means printing money. Printing money means inflation. End of discussion. Their math is not wrong. Their math is obsolete. The old rule is simple. Print dollars without producing goods and prices explode. Every hyperinflation in history confirms it. But that rule has a hidden assumption buried inside every model. Human labor is the bottleneck of all production. AGI removes the bottleneck. Permanently. Autonomous machinery pulls raw materials from the earth. No operator. Self-driving trucks haul those materials across continents. No driver. Automated factories turn them into goods. No worker. Humanoid robots load the freight, stock the shelves, wire the buildings. No hands. When those robots break, better robots design, build, and replace them. No engineer. No technician. No human anywhere in the loop. From the mine to your front door, the entire chain runs without a single paycheck. Labor is the largest cost hidden inside everything you own. When it hits zero, the price of everything chases it down. Not cheaper. Not discounted. Functionally zero. This is where the inflation argument dies. UBI inflates only when printed dollars chase scarce goods. That is the textbook answer. And the textbook is correct. But inside a fully automated loop, goods stop being scarce. Machines produce faster than humans can spend. GDP does not grow linearly. It goes vertical. For the first time in recorded history, supply will outrun demand at every price point in every market on earth. Ten thousand years of civilization. Every empire. Every war. Every famine. Every economic theory ever written. All downstream of two words. Not enough. AGI does not solve that problem. It makes the question obsolete.

@RyanGirdusky What replaced jobs? You cannot have a single agent perform beyond an 80% success rate. This is hype and the reckoning will be brutal even for the big companies.

I’ve spoken to lots of people in tech and absolutely none of them believe this. Their opinions of what to do with humanity after AI replaces their jobs are truly dystopian

@TradersCult_IN you cannot adjust the plans to India. Right now those prices are subsidized. Once they cannot keep giving computing power away, those prices will go up 5x. Expect this to happen or early 2027.

The AI Access Gap. Same tool. Same price. Different planet. As % of monthly income: 🇺🇸 $20/mo = 0.3% 🇮🇳 $20/mo = 8.2% 🇺🇸 $200/mo = 2.8% 🇮🇳 $200/mo = 82% Grok Heavy ($300) costs more than India's entire monthly per capita income. The revolution is global. The access isn't

@burkov The failure rate is higher than 20% in most cases. This means it cannot be fully automated. So, no, the narrative you propose only happens in some people minds.

The truth is, no one, including those who are working on LLMs, knows whether they will have a job in computing next year or beyond. The only successful AI app is a chatbot that writes code. But who needs your code if they can just use this app and get the same code?

@nicole_clash Nope, not happening yet and the low yield rate (<80%) makes this scenario impossible. Since mist people don’t understand compound probability in processes, they will keep thinking agentic AI works.

“Why would we let AI take our jobs and rely on the government?” What people don’t realize is, AI is GOING to take your jobs, most of them. It’s already starting. And unless the government is willing to SHOOT every single person that uses AI (unrealistic), most traditional jobs will be more efficiently done by an AI or an automation. It is incredibly naive to think that “bombing the data centers” will stop the progression. You can shut down all the major AI labs today and it would barely make a difference. I can go on and on about why yes, the AI and the robots are in fact coming for your jobs. If you knew what I knew, you would believe me. For the purpose of this argument, let’s just assume that I am right, that AI is going to take the majority of jobs. When people lose their jobs, most people are gonna be royally fucked. They have rent to pay, kids to take care of. Food, water, etc. We need the government to step in. The alternative is, people die. Or they resort to stealing, looting, etc. “But if the government pays everyone, that’s communism/ socialism!” Wrong. If the government shuts down the free market, and gave everyone food water and shelter, that would be communism. It is infinitely better for the government to give people cash than raw resources. It lets the average person have the purchasing power to shape the free market. Why is the distinction important? Because the beauty of capitalism is, it pushes innovation and surfaces the best products to consumers. It lets the average person be able to start their own business. For example, suddenly there are more artists in the world. More musicians. More game developers. The people having cash in their hands means that they can use it to support their favorite art, music, games. “I doubt the government is actually gonna pay people, they’re corrupt and evil.” Yes, the government is corrupt. But what you have to realize is, even the government has incentives. When AI increases the efficiency of every single company, there will be more taxes collected from the corporations (see below tweet). It is in the government’s best interest to reinvest that money back into the economy in the form of UBI/ UHI. Most people who are against what I’m saying, and what @elonmusk said, assumes that the choice is between “AI taking our jobs and we rely on the government.” vs “We keep our jobs.” That is not what the choice is though. The real question is, what should the government do to make this brutal transition period the least painful as possible? It gets very very nuanced, but it absolutely has to start with the government giving people cash. That is the only way. The alternative is a communist police state with people starving, dying, looting, and rioting. And absolutely no one, not even the government, wants that.

@VraserX You do realize that is an AI generated video, right?

Forget UBI. The real answer to AI disruption is universal capital ownership. If AI and robots create the wealth, ordinary people should own a share of that productive system and receive dividends from it. Not dependence but Ownership.

@zuess05 No, it can’t build the entire app. Next question.

Serious question. We spent the last decade bullying "idea guys" because actually building the software was the only part that mattered. But if Claude can now build the entire app for the price of a Netflix subscription... What exactly separates a "visionary founder" from an "idea guy" right now?

@joecarlsonshow Have you noticed how Dario always looks like a weirdo and Sam exudes dishonesty? Or is it just me?

It's crazy how whenever a leader of an AI company talks, it makes me want to root against them. Dario and Sam especially. I don't know what it is about them. They created LLM's trained on lots of data, now they think they're gods that can predict the future, and they believe they know what's best for public policy. The ones I actually find the least annoying are Sundar and Zuck.

@Axsonth @TheRabbitHole Don’t be so negative, they are not your enemies, they just want to become your masters, no love included.

@TheRabbitHole There's absolutely no trust left. I literally consider them enemies, like their whole point is to subvert and manipulate us into accepting our own, slow death.

Trust in Legacy Media has tanked

@StraitGeor32672 @TheRabbitHole This is how social revolutions start brewing.

@TheRabbitHole When people stop trusting the storytellers, something has broken on a deeper level far beyond the headlines. The truth shouldn’t be so hard to find.

@Steven67455569 @JuliaEMcCoy It can’t do math, just answer with text if the problem has previously been solved and is in its database.

@JuliaEMcCoy Ai is nothing more than a glorified calculator. It can never be smarter than its woke programmers and the available information on the internet. It’s just fast and has a memory or information storage facility (the internet) which is created by smart humans that it can access

Hot take: The people most afraid of AI are the ones most addicted to the old system. The 9-5. The ladder. The “safe” path. There is no safe path anymore. There’s only the bold one. And the bold ones? They’re already free.

@JuliaEMcCoy AI, which you should call LLMs, are nothing but stochastic parrots hallucinating with a yield rate of <80%. They are not even good as customer support chatbots.

@barneyxbt It is obvious for you, but the sheeple love to be told what to think.

elon is out here shilling ubi like everyone is going to be living in penthouses not working because ai will make everything so cheap. use your brain for 5 seconds and tell me how that makes any sense.. if everyone has a billion dollars and nobody has to work who is selling you their property? who is giving up their assets? who is handing over real estate and land to people who did nothing to earn it. the answer is nobody the rich aren’t giving up shit. they’re going to own everything and you’re going to get a monthly allowance from the government that covers just enough to keep you alive and compliant. that’s not freedom and only low iq would think it’s a good thing “you will own nothing and be happy” isn’t a conspiracy theory it’s the literal slogan of the world economic forum lmfao and elon is repackaging it as some futuristic utopia a zionist billionaire who works with the government telling you not to worry about working anymore and to just trust the system. and you’re buying it. again… ubi isn’t a gift it’s a leash. and the people selling it to you are the same ones who want to enslave you

@RudrakshB06 @ylecun @yacineMTB @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn Improving rapidly? Hallucinations are still an issue and the success rate is less than 80% for the last 3 years. Maybe you need to catch up on the last six months. Besides, the sign of the bubble bursting are more than obvious and is in sync with Dario’s absurd statements.

@ylecun @yacineMTB @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn How can economists have spent their entire career studying this if this never-seen-before technology that commoditized intelligence only came out a few years ago and is improving rapidly?

Dario is wrong. He knows absolutely nothing about the effects of technological revolutions on the labor market. Don't listen to him, Sam, Yoshua, Geoff, or me on this topic. Listen to economists who have spent their career studying this, like @Ph_Aghion , @erikbryn , @DAcemogluMIT , @amcafee , @davidautor

@SidIntain1 @ylecun @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn Jobs in the past were created because there was a knowledge layer waiting for the displaced workers. There is nothing like that now.

Sir, slightly differ on the 'economists' part. Let us plot a job on 3-axes : place, skill, year. Let us accept that the past will repeat i.e. newer and more plentiful jobs will be created. But the past also tells us these new, more plentiful jobs would have moved on these axes - new skills, at some other place, in 15-20 yrs. For an economist in 2060 looking back, may all look fine, but how does it help cities and industries hollowed out in 2030s?

@CapacPartners @ylecun @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn It is the same as previous technologies. You are just full of bull hype.

@ylecun @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn This is very obviously not like other technological revolutions. There is no parallel. We are not just creating tools here, we are creating *workers*. How do you not understand this?