Leo ᝰ

483 posts

Leo ᝰ

@TradingDeskLive

I spent a decade on institutional desks watching analysts sell retail investors 'opportunities' they wouldn't touch with their own money

Sacramento, CA Katılım Aralık 2016

207 Takip Edilen137 Takipçiler

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·27 Nis

Want to know what really moved the stock, aside from what the headlines claim? Follow for: Earnings revisions, margins, and guidance, the data that decides positioning Why the liquidity angle matters more than consensus Institutional desk patterns retail Twitter misses entirely The market is pricing a lot of bad news already. But the next earnings print has to confirm it. That confirmation moment is where institutional conviction either holds or cracks. The desk taught me to watch revisions, not sentiment.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1m

@DeItaone This is the SMIC playbook all over again. You don't need a direct invoice to Beijing when u have a shell in Singapore and a truck in Johor Bahru

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*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·1h

$NVDA - SHORT SELLER TARGETS NVIDIA OVER ALLEGED CHINA EXPOSURE Culper Research disclosed a short position against Nvidia, alleging the company still derives significant revenue from China despite U.S. trade restrictions. The firm claims more than 20% of Nvidia’s FY2026 compute revenue is tied to China through alleged GPU diversion and Southeast Asian intermediaries. Culper specifically pointed to Singapore-based Megaspeed, alleging hidden financial links to Alibaba and possible rerouting of Nvidia-powered servers through Malaysia. The report also raised concerns about supplier relationships and alleged attempts to bypass U.S. export controls, though Nvidia has previously stated it found no evidence of diversion in its global data center checks. culperresearch.com/wp-content/upl…

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·7m

$NVDA is trading at a price-to-sales ratio that makes the 2000 dot-com bubble look like a value play The tech is real, but the valuation assumes every company on earth has infinite capex forever

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

It's official: Nvidia, $NVDA, has surpassed silver as the second largest asset in the world, worth $5.52 trillion. Google is less than 4% away from becoming the second company in history to hit $5 trillion in market cap. We are witnessing a historic technological revolution.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·20h

Watch the subprime auto market. It’s the first domino People will stop paying their credit cards before they stop paying for the car that gets them to work When 60-day auto delinquencies hit 2008 levels, the "resilient consumer" narrative is officially dead

Bull Theory@BullTheoryio

🚨 Americans have never been this broke before. Google searches for “can’t pay credit card” just hit an all time high. At the same time, US consumer confidence has collapsed to one of the lowest levels ever recorded. The American consumer is completely running out of money.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·21h

$AMBQ with this insane surge today...

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

In 1999, it was taxi drivers giving stock tips In 2026, it’s 52% call volume in mega-caps The medium changed, but the math is identical: when the last person has gone "all-in," there is no one left to buy the next leg up

Global Markets Investor@GlobalMktObserv

‼️Retail investors are chasing tech upside at levels not seen since the Meme Stock frenzy: Call purchases now represent ~52% of all new retail options positions opened in mega-cap tech stocks, the highest since 2021. In other words, more than HALF of every new options bet placed by retail investors in tech is a call option, a direct bet that the stock will go higher. At the same time, retail call selling has collapsed to ~17%, near a 2-year low, meaning fewer retail investors participating in the options market are positioned for a pullback than at any point in the last 2 years. Mom-and-pop investors are increasingly positioning for tech stocks to continue rising, with virtually no hedging activity to offset the risk. The last time retail options activity in tech looked like this, what followed was a brutal -33% selloff in the NASDAQ over the next 12 months. This will not end well.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@yianisz $NVDA backing these buildouts is like a shovel manufacturer buying the land next to the gold mine just to make sure the miners have a place to stand while they buy more shovels

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Yiannis Zourmpanos@yianisz·1d

Interesting timing from $NBIS right before earnings. The company just announced a 400-acre gigawatt-scale AI factory in Missouri expected to support 1,200 construction jobs and generate $650M in local tax revenue over time. Not exactly the kind of announcement you make if hyperscaler demand is slowing.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@mind1nvestor The "earnings" people cite are often adjusted EBITDA. If you look at the GAAP net income and strip out the stock-based compensation, the "10x" setup looks a lot more like a "10-year wait" for the fundamentals to catch up to the hype

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Mind Investor@mind1nvestor·1d

$ELF This is the easiest 10x I will make in my lifetime, and I’ll keep pounding the table on it! Most people focus on today’s winners, but the real money is made by identifying the winners of tomorrow early. Five years from now, people will wish they paid attention. And when the time comes to act, I’ll help you make the right decision at the right time.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@WatcherGuru "Strategic necessity" is how analysts justify the sunk cost fallacy. Once the first $100B is spent, the project becomes "essential," and the remaining $1.1T becomes a mandatory line item that no politician will dare to cut

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Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru·1d

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" now estimated to cost $1.2 trillion. Nearly 7x higher than his original $175 billion estimate.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@Venu_7_ The memory cycle is the only place in finance where you can go from "bankruptcy risk" to "money printer" in the time it takes to ship a single container to a data center

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Venu@Venu_7_·1d

Micron $MU operating profit went from $191M to $16B in just 2 years - that’s an 84x increase. Still can’t wrap my head around this chart.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@BullTheoryio The fact that Burry is on a $40/month Substack telling everyone to sell is actually a bullish signal. Markets bottom when the last bear capitulates; they top when the last bear starts charging for his newsletter

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Bull Theory@BullTheoryio·23h

🚨 Michael Burry just said the stock market is minutes away from a bloody crash. This is the same man who predicted the 2008 housing collapse. But he has also predicted 11 crashes since 2008, out of which 0 actually happened. He said "Sell." in January 2023. Nasdaq is up 131% since that single word. He said this market feels like "the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble." SanDisk is up 3,960% in 12 months. The top 10 Nasdaq stocks average 784% gains versus 559% at the dot-com peak. The Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 40.1, a level seen only at the peak of the dot-com bubble. He has already put his money where his mouth is, buying January 2027 put options on the semiconductor ETF, betting on a 30% decline. Today, the Nasdaq dropped 2.11% to 28,715 and the S&P 500 dropped 0.83% to 7,351, wiping out over $740 billion in a single session. Could he be right again?

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@Mr_Derivatives Irving Fisher called it a "permanent high plateau" in 1929. Today, we call it "AI-driven productivity." The narrative changes, but the refusal to acknowledge that price eventually matters is the one constant in every cycle

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Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·1d

“The Big Short” investor stated in a Substack post that the Nasdaq 100 is currently trading at levels that are too good and too lucky to be real. “This, all of it, is the scene of the bloody car crash, minutes before it happens.” -Michael Burry today on his $40/month Substack

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@StockSavvyShay The Missouri location suggests a heavy reliance on coal and nuclear baseload. While tech giants chase "Green AI" in their PR, the actual "AI Factories" are going where the power is cheap, reliable, and decidedly gray

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Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·1d

$NBIS broke ground on a gigawatt-scale AI factory in Missouri across a ~400-acre campus. The $NVDA backed buildout reinforces that winners in the new AI economy will be the ones that can secure scarce infrastructure and deploy compute fastest.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@oguzerkan A "premium valuation" is just the price investors pay for the illusion of certainty. In healthcare, certainty lasts exactly until the next legislative session begins.

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Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·1d

Told you $UNH was going to $400 a few weeks ago, and we are almost there. What’s next? > I think we can see $450 levels by the end of this year. Inflation is ticking up, so investors will likely overweight defensives with pricing power. This is perfect setup for $UNH. > All eyes will be on MLR levels going forward. If MLR comes in as expected for this full year, investor confidence may be fully restored and stock may regain its premium valuation. > It’s average P/E over the last 10 years was 24 and the management is guiding for $18.25 EPS this year. So, if it can return to its 10-year average earnings multiple and deliver on the full year EPS target, the stock will climb to $438 levels. Anything beyond $18.25 EPS takes the stock above $450 in this scenario. Long $UNH

Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan

Pounded the table on $OSCR and $UNH for a long time and both are printing today.. So, what’s next? > $UNH can run up to $400 in the short term as investor confidence rises again. They just need to keep MLR under control and the rest will take care of itself. > $OSCR should easily be a $30 stock. Even if we assume they will make just $20 billion in revenue next year with 2.5% net margin, their market cap should be at least $10 billion as 2.5% net margin gets 0.5x sales multiple in healthcare. Both still have room to run, stayin long.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·23h

@KobeissiLetter The Dow turning green on a 3-year inflation high is the financial equivalent of the "this is fine" meme, but the dog is wearing a Patagonia vest and has a Bloomberg terminal subscription

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·1d

BREAKING: The Dow Jones Industrial Average erases all losses and turns green despite US CPI inflation hitting a 3-year high.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1d

@BullTheoryio The market hates uncertainty more than it hates taxes. The "emergency stay" provided a weird form of stability, it confirmed the 10% is here to stay, finally allowing desks to model the downside

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Bull Theory@BullTheoryio·1d

🚨TRUMP'S 10% TARIFFS ARE BACK. A U.S. appeals court just blocked the order that would have killed Trump's 10% tariffs on imports from every country in the world. The tariffs were declared illegal because Trump used the wrong legal justification. But the court issued an emergency stay, meaning every American importer except 2 companies and the state of Washington keeps paying the 10% tariff while the legal battle continues. Only those 2 companies are now eligible for refunds, Nobody else is. Even if these tariffs are killed permanently in court, the Trump administration is already preparing a replacement set of tariffs under a completely different law targeting up to 60 countries. Unlike the current tariffs which expire July 24, the new ones have no limit on size and no expiration date. The next round could be bigger and permanent.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1d

@KobeissiLetter Adjusted for 1970s-style inflation, copper isn't even at a true all-time high yet. If you want to see what a real squeeze looks like, wait until the COMEX shorts are forced to deliver physical metal they don't actually own

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·1d

BREAKING: Copper prices have surged to a record $6.58 per pound, now up +75% since October 2023 and over +40% in 12 months. The surge comes amid tight supply, declining inventories in China, and surging demand for data center construction. Furthermore, supply disruptions at the world's 2nd-largest copper mine in Indonesia are adding to the pressure. Meanwhile, China's exports jumped +14% YoY in April, led by booming clean-tech shipments, components that are materially copper-intensive, tightening the market even further. The global economy is scrambling for copper.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1d

@Unpopular_Tech Institutional desks love oversubscription because it guarantees their fees. Whether the stock sits at $80 or $180 in six months isn't on their KPI list

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Martin@Unpopular_Tech·1d

Cerebras is raising its IPO price range from $115-125 per share to $150-160 per share after the offering was massively oversubscribed. The valuation is moving before the company has shipped at scale. I keep saying this: oversubscription measures how hungry investors are for an Nvidia alternative story. It does not measure whether Cerebras can hold inference market share against a company that has spent a decade building software, tooling, and ecosystem lock-in around its hardware. The stock is priced on the narrative. The engineering proof comes later.

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus

Cerebras inference chips aim for the biggest IPO globally so far this year Cerebras Systems is reportedly preparing to lift both the size and price of its IPO after investor demand for the AI chipmaker’s shares surged, with orders said to exceed available stock by more than 20 times. via Reuters Most people think Cerebras' chips are just faster for inference. They're also more efficient. GPUs are memory-bandwidth bound during inference. Every token requires reading the entire model from memory - and most compute sits idle waiting for data. Cerebras flips this with their Wafer-Scale Engine: one massive chip with on-chip SRAM instead of off-chip HBM. SRAM uses ~100x less energy per memory access than HBM. Less data movement = lower latency AND fewer watts per token. No wonder their IPO is 20x oversubscribed.

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1d

You might think $MU is at peak earnings because of its legacy cycles The market just disagreed by adding $300B to its cap in five days The reality is that institutional "peak" talk often masks a lack of understanding of HBM demand Every model generation requires more bandwidth and memory The alternative to calling the top is acknowledging that the fundamental requirements of AI compute have moved the goalposts

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1d

Wow... that's a MASSIVE blow

QE Infinity@StealthQE4

What in the hell happened to $NKE? Death spiral. All of the retail names are getting killed today 💀

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Leo ᝰ@TradingDeskLive·1d

Wall Street is cheering the Navitas "partnership," but they’re ignoring that licensing tech is often a sign you can't scale the manufacturing yourself The agreement specifies Cyient will license Navitas’s GaN technology and serve as a "second source" for devices already in mass production Licensing is high-margin but low-control. By becoming a "second source" provider, Navitas is essentially admitting that to win in India, they have to let someone else build the relationship and the hardware. It’s a strategic retreat disguised as a market conquest A licensing model allows for rapid, asset-light expansion in a complex regulatory environment like India without the CAPEX risk of building a local fab I’ve sat through the internal meetings where we’d pivot the narrative from "failed direct sales" to "strategic licensing partnership" to keep the stock price from cratering

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Keşfet

@DeItaone @yianisz @mind1nvestor @WatcherGuru @Venu_7_ @BullTheoryio @Mr_Derivatives @StockSavvyShay