@GoldnGuitars But, what about the Dollar? Doesn't look like it wants to roll over to me... Either starting a new IC soon, or still has an ICH/"ICH" to plot, over coming weeks... No?
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Topher
5.6K posts
Topher
@TradingEbbnFlow
Sushi Chef → Developing Trader/PM → Philanthropy Following the flow, acting as structure signals the way. Be like Water
Pacific Northwest Katılım Aralık 2020
32 Takip Edilen293 Takipçiler
Gold Miners Cycle Map — Week of April 20 - The miners are setting up to lead.
$GDX entering week 6 of this intermediate cycle. DC1 is right-translated with a top on day 18; confirming March 20 as the ICL. Thursday's day 23 low looks like the DCL. Need a close above the SMA 10 and to confirm.
$NEM 8% gain Friday on earnings. Based on historical tops we're something like 25-38 trading days into the top from here. Left-translation gives a week 8-12 window, but that could be pushed a bit further if this cycle tops with right-translation. $GDX has 5 waves of wave 1 done. Wave 3 of 5 next.
Targets: GDX 135-140. NEM 165.
Invalidation: GDX 90 (once DCL confirms) NEM 108.
The fundamental case is unreal. AISC just above $1k, #Gold above $4500... they're printing cash. Even if gold doesn't make a new high, earnings growth carries the miners. 🚀
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What is this nonsense? Microsoft is barely down and the entire daily range is only 1.8%. That is cheap engagement farming.
x.com/KobeissiLetter…
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Microsoft stock, $MSFT, falls -5% after announcing that its OpenAI license will now be nonexclusive and it will no longer pay revenue share to OpenAI.
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@BenKizemchuk However, this one may turn out to be left translated. Still, the early phase sees a good push upward regardless, a painful time for rest of market. Wonder if Crude will rise another leg too?
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@BenKizemchuk Don't know if you care for cycle analysis Ben, but I think the USD is starting a new Intermediate (several months-years) cycle here too.
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@BenKizemchuk Actually, most of your red markings are of the troughs for that cycle 😉
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Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking: Oil is down
Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking: Oil is down
Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking: Oil is down
Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking: Oil is down
Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking: Oil is down
Breaking: Oil is up
Breaking
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@MarketMike Not sure why folks struggled so much to see this potential. Guess it was because of what was going on in the background, in the ME, with Oil?
Goes to show how tied up in "Narrative" & News retail traders get.
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3 weeks in a row breaking the upside weekly EM and now back to all‑time highs.
People’s emotions always get more exaggerated at extremes, this is another one… this time to the upside.
Very, very rare for $SPY to break the upper weekly EM 3 weeks in a row. It’s even rare to see 3 weekly closes outside the weekly EM.
Last time we had 3 closes outside the weekly EM was July 21, 2025: upper break, lower break, then upper again.
Mike@MarketMike
The pain trade right now (imo) is a new all-time high. Based on what I'm seeing, a lot of very smart people are confidently positioned/prepared for lower. The consensus feels almost unanimous, "the market will go down from here." And maybe it does. But Walter Deemer said it best: "The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest number of people to the greatest extent possible." Right now, the move that would cause the most pain isn't another leg down. Everyone's already braced for that. The real pain trade is missing a move up that nobody was positioned for. Including myself at the moment, haha. Not saying it happens. Just saying, when this many people are sure about the direction, that's usually when the market decides to do the opposite.
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@MarketMike Sentiment/Psychological (Emotional) read... watch how this may receive far fewer replies than the original post.
I'm guessing a ~1/4 ratio, maybe as low as 1/8, compared to the ~90+
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Topher retweetledi
4-14-26 This Is NOT A New Bull Market — Be Careful
The market $SPX rally looks constructive, with a rising 200-day moving average, improving breadth, and stable earnings, but it remains a fragile setup.
We haven’t seen the kind of deterioration that typically leads to new lows, yet key risks remain.
If breadth weakens, earnings estimates get cut, or #crudeoil prices stay elevated, the downside could reopen quickly.
The Fed is likely stuck, and geopolitical uncertainty adds another layer of risk.
History shows rallies like this can fail before a true bottom forms.
This is not a confirmed bull market; it’s a risk management environment. Keep that in mind.
If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
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@BenKizemchuk Vol compressing too, getting nice n tight. Very nice setup for building a position here
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TLT working on carving out a bottom. Momentum has inflected higher. Makes sense in context of a slowing economy and lower rates.
Ben Kizemchuk@BenKizemchuk
Positive momentum inflection on TLT quarterly chart
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Topher retweetledi
@FusionptCapital It's hard to believe the Truflation prints... but what do I know
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@JohnMuchow I'm interested in what others' have figured out for themselves too
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When I was looking in to journaling and record keeping not long ago, came up with:
1) TradeZella best, or TraderSync / Edgewonk / Tradervue
- for Trade analytics, quant data
2) Obsidian best, or OneNote / Capacities
- for trade thesis, screenshots, macro context, and post-trade review
3) Excel / Sheets
- for tax trade records
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Researching trading journal apps as I currently track my trades in a spreadsheet.
If you consistently use an app for journaling and analytics, I'm interested to learn more...
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Another great day to log off
Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐@FusionptCapital
You'll never guess what they're talking about now
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@TradingEbbnFlow agree also very few thought that way which doesn't hurt
x.com/FusionptCapita…
Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐@FusionptCapital
Colloquially this is known as a clown show $JPM
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