@YourShami Sir, Any idea. Why this stock falling in last two sessions??
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TrendSpy
247 posts
TrendSpy
@TrendSensor
Passionate equity swing trader and investor, dedicated to maximizing opportunities. 📈💼 Macro enthusiast and diligent follower of market trends.
Germany Katılım Haziran 2023
96 Takip Edilen32 Takipçiler
Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd
#JSLL FY26 PAT is greater than the revenue from FY23 , and this trend is expected to continue for the next two years as well.
FY23 : Revenue : 204cr ---> FY26E PAT : 225 Cr
FY24 : Revenue : 324cr ---> FY27E PAT : 330 Cr
FY25 : Revenue : 469cr ---> FY28E PAT : 480 Cr
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd #JSLL What the market is missing ? ① OTC Optionality — Under-modelled Street expectations are already moving towards ~250 Cr. OTC potential by FY28, but the actual optionality can be significantly larger. The company has rapidly expanded distribution, entered new topical OTC categories, and is building a portfolio with structurally better margins compared to prescription products. If execution continues at the current pace, OTC itself can become a major standalone value creator over the next few years. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ② Capital-Light Diagnostics #Chandan_Diagnostics The diagnostics business has the potential to create a ~50 Cr. annual revenue stream with almost zero incremental capex. Since the ecosystem, lab partnerships, and collection infrastructure are already in place, scaling becomes highly efficient from here. This is the kind of expansion that improves operating leverage without putting pressure on the balance sheet. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ③ Insurance Tailwind — Silent Re-rating Trigger A structural shift is happening in reimbursement behaviour. Treatments and day-care procedures that were previously ignored are now increasingly getting insurance acceptance. This improves affordability for patients, increases treatment continuity, and can meaningfully improve demand visibility. Markets are still underestimating how powerful this change can become over time. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ④ Governance Upgrade Statutory auditor Walker Chandiok (GT, Big 5), internal auditor Forvis Mazars (World #7), ERP migrated to Oracle, CRM live on Salesforce. In a sector rife with unorganised family-run clinics, this is a material re-rating trigger as institutional allocators have historically discounted the category. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⑤ UAE Insurance Expansion The company’s positioning in UAE creates access to a premium-paying patient base with better realization and higher ARPU. Insurance-backed acceptance of alternative medicine is improving steadily, which opens a much larger monetisation opportunity. This international optionality is still not fully reflected in market expectations. Some Key Triggers: ① Entero distribution partnership. Exclusive Ayurveda distribution tie-up with Entero Healthcare (Jan 2026). Opens up 1.25 lakh chemist network nationwide. Instant national footprint that would have cost JSLL 5 years and ₹200 Cr+ to build. Revenue potential: ₹150-300 Cr in FY27 if even 20% of 16 SKUs achieve meaningful retail velocity. Entero's track record with Emami and similar brands is the sanity check. ② Bed capacity scale-up to 5,800. Current: 2,850 built / 2,290 operational. Target: 5,800 beds by FY28 across owned + franchisee + college-partnership models. Capex-light (₹34 lakh/bed vs allopathy's ₹70L-1Cr). If mature-cohort occupancy of 80% holds, 5,800 beds at ₹8,500 ARPOB generates ~₹1,440 Cr service revenue alone — 10x current. Plus medicine cross-sell follows proportionately. Disc: Info for educations. @manikanth2304 @LearningEleven if you are also tracking this company, please share the key points of your thesis in case I have missed anything here.
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GNG Electronics Ltd
Relative strength + Strong chart.
Working Capital increased.
Disc: No buy and sell
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
GNG Electronics Ltd Global memory chip shortage. Clear beneficiary: #EBGNG. Margins currently at 8–9%, but the company now expects them to cross 11%. Very interesting insights around inventory. You can see why GNG is set to be a direct beneficiary.
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@Financially_In
Are you tracking Man Industries? If yes, what is the near-term trigger there?
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What triggered TD Power Systems’ 10% surge post con-call?
Management highlighted strong YoY demand growth from prime mover OEMs, with clear visibility up to 2030, boosting long-term confidence.
High-Growth Segments:
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Gas Turbines & Gas Engines remain the strongest growth drivers, with exceptionally high demand expected from Europe and the U.S.
Data Centers are increasingly shifting towards captive power solutions due to massive power consumption and rising grid tariffs, opening up a large opportunity for TD Power Systems.
Grid Stabilization Applications, including synchronous condensers, are emerging as another major demand source alongside data centers.
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Export & Customer Wins:
TD Power Systems has onboarded a new U.S. customer in the gas turbine segment, currently at the engineering order stage and expected to convert into a machine order shortly. Management indicated a large long-term forecast from this client and noted that discussions are ongoing with another major customer. Additionally, the company has secured export orders for the U.S. railway segment, with supplies starting next year.
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Forex Tailwinds:
Management expects margin upside from the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the dollar and euro. Having stopped hedging around six months ago, the company is now benefiting from spot currency rates starting Q4, with the euro movement being particularly favourable. As a result, forex-denominated export orders are significantly more profitable than domestic rupee-based contracts.
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Margins, Inventory & Copper Pricing:
Current margins are expected to remain stable as long as lower-cost inventory continues to be consumed.
Once this inventory is exhausted, renegotiated customer prices are expected to offset higher input costs.
All new orders are being booked with revised pricing, fully factoring in higher copper costs.
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Manufacturing Capacity & Expansion:
The company officially operationalised its third plant on December 18.
During Q3, one-off costs were incurred due to shifting critical machinery (including robots) from existing units to the new facility.
Existing capacity has already been pushed to an annualised revenue run-rate of ~₹1,800 crore.
With current assets, including the new plant, management believes the company can achieve peak revenues of ₹2,600–₹2,800 crore without any major fresh capex.
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Takeaway: Management is confident and bullish. Forex gains, stable margins, no commodity price impact, and live capex support growth. Q3 one-offs are done. Clear visibility to achieve 1800 cr in FY26 and 2200 cr in FY27, with every quarter adding 575–600 cr to the order book. Strong guidance has been well received by the market.
Disc: Invested. No buy and sell.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
TD Power Systems Ltd - Earning outs for Q3FY26. Order book is growing, margins are stable, and FY26 guidance remains unchanged, so the overall story is on the right track. I thought margins would face some pressure this quarter due to the hike in commodity prices, but that view was proven wrong. The company maintained an 18% OPM, which shows that strong businesses can effectively pass on higher costs to customers. Company stick to the guidance for FY26 and the extended guidance for FY27. For 1800cr guidance . To achieve this, the coming quarter needs to deliver 533cr, which represents a 20% QoQ.. Is this possible? Yes, it is. The reason is that the capex becomes operational in Q3 in multiple phases, which should comfortably contribute to the required 20% growth. Order book stands 1845cr and this quarter growth 61% ( 656cr vs 407cr), This is excellent . I remember, last concall they said, will add 550cr orderbook each quarter, done better. Do not compare Q3 with the previous quarter, as exports in this season are usually lower than in the last quarter. lets see, what management will tell us in Concall.
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Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd
#vincofe
Key triggers:
The company is adding 4500 MT of brownfield spray-dried capacity, expected to go live by March 2026. The project involves a 45Cr capex, fully funded through internal accruals. Post-commissioning, management expects 70–80% utilisation within 1–2 months. Current capacity stands at 6500 MT, which will increase to 11000 MT after expansion.
Looking for new markets - US, New Zealand and Australia.
Tax Adv :
A large part of the company’s revenue around 80% comes from exports, which allows it to benefit from tax incentives linked to foreign exchange earnings. Being part of the food processing sector, it also enjoys tax holidays under Section 80-IB, with full profit deduction in the initial years and partial benefits thereafter. In addition, new manufacturing units set up through subsidiaries may fall under the concessional corporate tax regimes, resulting in significantly lower tax rates. Higher capex in FY25 has further helped, as increased tax depreciation has reduced the current tax outgo.
FY26 PAT : 62-66cr
FY27 PAT: 80-85cr in Base case ( My assumption)
Disc: No buy and sell.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd Zero U.S. exports combined with currency appreciation make this a good time to reassess the business.
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I feel many investors lack clarity about market types such as bull, bear, and dull markets and have limited awareness of market cycles and sector rotation. This broader understanding is essential when building a portfolio or deciding to hold stocks. Knowing how market cycles play out is a must.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
I met many people and had several investment discussions. One common pattern stood out. Something that is completely within their control. Most of them do not limit their losses. Instead, they limit their profits to 5–10% and justify holding on to losses of 30% or more, believing that the stock will reverse once the market stabilizes and turns around because it is a “quality” stock and they spend 1-2 hours daily tracking the market and market news.
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Today SKM has clarified that the bird flu outbreak has no impact on its business and also stated that it does not have operations in Kerala.
Well, the company does have operations and a plant in Erode, Tamil Nadu, which is around 400 km from Kerala.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
SKM Egg Products & Ovobel Foods Ltd Risk: There has been news of a bird flu outbreak in a district of Kerala, where authorities have culled around 30,000 chickens. If the outbreak spreads to other states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, it could have a significant impact on production for these companies. This is an important risk to monitor, and I am sharing this purely for awareness. If this risk starts to play out, the situation could become challenging. You may have also noticed that egg prices have been rising recently, mainly due to a supply & demand mismatch. Egg prices are rising because supply is tight. If bird flu spreads, production may fall further, which can push prices higher. Keep this risk–reward in mind Disc: No buy and sell recomm. DYODD. ndtv.com/health/bird-fl…
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With this insight, I chose Senco Gold. The stock was heavily beaten down and formed a strong base around the 315–320 levels, showing tight price action.
Additionally, its strong geographic presence, particularly in the Bengal region, suggested higher acceleration potential during the festive season. Recent promoter buying added another layer of confidence. Based on this techno-funda setup, I picked the stock and played the move.
Tx @nid_rockz Bhai
Shreenidhi P@nid_rockz
Expecting a good quarterly update for #Q3FY26 from Jewellery companies Shanti Gold Utssav CZ PN Gadgil Jewellers Kalyan Jewellers Titan Company Value Retail: Q3 might be weaker vs Q2 on the growth front as Dussehra was preponed to Q2 this year vs Q3 last year That should have some impact #V2Retail #BaazarStyle Sai Silk Kalamandir #SaiSilk Expecting tepid Q3 Might be the weakest of the last 6-8 qtrs 9M should still look good Q3 can be weakish Won't be surprised if there is some degrowth as well for Q3
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@Financially_In The story played out, or are there still any triggers left?
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Kiri Industries Ltd
The special situation has finally played out. In the last concall, we were convinced by the management’s tone and expected the news to come by 31st December. This time, the news has come as anticipated and has brought great joy to Kiri shareholders who participated in this special situation.
Thank you so much, and thank you to the community. We had shared in advance how to approach and handle such special situations through learning and discipline. Our focus has always been on teaching the process rather than just outcomes, and we hope the community has truly benefited and is now better equipped to identify and handle special situations in the market
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CCL’s Renewable Energy Investment — Key Highlights
▪️ Revised Investment Plan:
CCL has modified its plan to acquire a 26% stake in M/s. Mukkonda Renewables Private Limited through a total investment of 12.12 cr.
▪️ Objective — Captive Renewable Power:
This investment secures access to 10 MW of wind and solar energy for captive consumption, ensuring steady and cost-efficient power for CCL’s operations.
▪️ Operational & Financial Edge:
Access to captive renewable energy is expected to deliver: Lower energy costs, Improved energy reliability and Enhanced operational stability
▪️ Environmental Impact:
By partnering with a renewable power producer, CCL also aligns itself with sustainability goals and environmental responsibility.
▪️ Board’s Endorsement:
The Board of Directors approved the revised structure, affirming that it serves the long-term interest of the CCL group.
Investor Takeaway:
CCL’s proactive shift toward renewable energy demonstrates prudent capital allocation—securing a critical input (energy) while reducing dependency on conventional sources. This move supports cost efficiency, operational resilience, and ESG alignment—a combination that can enhance shareholder value over time.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
CCL Products - Q2FY26 - Excellent Numbers All the catalyst points are discussed here. OPM 17.5% vs 15.1% ( QoQ) and All time high topline. x.com/YourShami/stat…
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#INTERARCH
The PEB Mercedes is in top gear — what excellent numbers it has delivered.
Rev 491cr vs 323Cr ( yoy : 52% up), 380cr (qoq :29% up)
PAT 32.3 cr vs 21 Cr (yoy: 56% up), 28cr (qoq: 14%)
Margins 8.5% ( 70bps up, yoy and slightly up qoq)
OCF 142cr vs 132cr ( H1FY26 vs H1FY25)
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
Interarch Building Solutions Ltd Last month data points are connecting positively ( just observations) Steel Price Volatility: Steel accounts for ~65% of product cost; margins are highly sensitive to raw material price swings. Operational Costs: Conversion costs (engineering, manufacturing, paint) add ~15% and can fluctuate with project mix. Volume-Driven Margins: Profitability depends more on tonnage sold than revenue, making margins vulnerable to market price changes. Risk Mitigation: Mix of fixed-price and variable-price contracts to manage steel price risk. Maintains 2 months of steel inventory plus 2 months of orders in the pipeline at fixed prices. Techno-FUNDA: -New Capex live -WPI Steel str not much volatility in past couple months. -Chart taking support at 100DMA -New MF entered in August. Note: I am not 100% sure if the WPI price for 'Steel structures' aligns with Interarch. If anyone is closely tracking, please share your notes related to finished goods
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CCL Products long-term vision is to become a full-fledged FMCG company. In the B2C segment, the company plans to launch products in other categories along with coffee. Currently, B2C contributes about 10–12% of total revenue, with 110 crore in Q2, and the company is focusing on growing this segment even faster.
Financially Free ™@Financially_In
Post Results - CCL Products Management talk! youtube.com/watch?v=Kx4KEU…
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Hariom Pipe Industries seems to have crossed the “Laxman Rekha.” Ever since the business data out and MoU were announced, the weakness began and it hasn’t stopped since.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
Hariom Pipe Industries Ltd provided clarity on its MoU at the recent Arihant Capital Conference. Capex & Expansion:A major expansion initiative is the MoU with the Maharashtra government to establish a 1.5 MTPA integrated steel plant in Kurl. The seven-year phased project will focus on engineering and value-added products like galvanized, color-coated, and CR sheets for the auto and light engineering sectors. Funding will align with cash flows and balance sheet strength, with detailed planning in a DPR. Some key interesting key notes👇
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TrendSpy retweetledi
Guidance upgrade by TDPS
New capex goes live in early Q4,
Study the growth in export order book :)
Understand the AI led demand for power from here
youtube.com/watch?v=nVAaKx…
Disclaimer: no recommendation to buy or sell
YouTube
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PEAD in bull markets and in bear markets are two completely different games.
Bear market earnings reactions need a very different mindset than the hit and run that works when markets are bullish.
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R R Kabel Ltd
Excellent numbers from the wire and cable sector and highlighted this earlier when the momentum was just starting ( when $Coppper prices moving) and now it’s clearly paying off.
x.com/YourShami/stat…
Earnings Pulse@market_pulse_ai
#RRKABEL - 🏆🔥 Excellent Q2 Results - Just Out - 2 minutes ago Link - bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… #Q2Results #Q2FY26 #StockMarket #stockmarketsindia #StockMarketUpdate #stocksinnews
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Astra Microwave's JV (Astra Rafael Comsys Private Limited) bagged a Rs. 285.56 Cr Ministry of Defence order for IAF communication systems.
Astra Microwave expects to benefit substantially from this domestic deal, to be executed within 11 months.
The Catalyst Decoder@YourShami
Astra Microwave Products Ltd #ASTRAMICRO JV with Rafael Israel: 50:50 JV producing Software Defined Radios; called a “hidden gem.” Expected to secure $100M+ orders this year, with 35% flowing to Astra. Profitable and strategically significant. Order Book: Current ~2,230Cr guidance for 1,300–1,400Cr new orders. A large BEL order (1500–1600Cr) could take it above 3000Cr+ Atim Kabra – Director of Astra Microwave, advises viewing the defense industry in “stacks of 2 to 3 years,” expecting significant, irreversible incremental improvements and a steady progression from one capability set to another. JV Subsidiary company website: astrafaelcomsys.com Key things- have to notice? Rafale ≠ Rafael Rafale (France) → Fighter jets by Dassault Aviation Rafael (Israel) → Defense systems, missiles, radars Astra Rafael Comsys is tied to Rafael (Israel), not to Rafale jets. BEL- Orders related and other Catalysts are discussed in below threads. Disc: No buy and sell.
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