Trollgee

@Bilbo_Bondbags @CredibleCrypto @Ramyelshafay I've been fulltime in crypto since early 2017. IMO u can't even compare it to 2021, 2017 prob gave nicer % but in absolute numbers 2021 was a magnitude higher top. Also in terms of the crypto recognition 2021 was the top

@Trollgee @CredibleCrypto @Ramyelshafay 2017 was the top of all tops for alts. Anyone who disagrees hasn't been in crypto long enough.

Nothing against you bro and all respect to you and your work, but some people keep posting about you calling $CRV going past $6 to $20-$40 in the last cycle. What makes you confident this time that we will actually get closer and not be like last time. @CredibleCrypto

@CredibleCrypto @Ramyelshafay man I admire you so much, your thoughts are spot on and and I'm a crv holder myself but when I hear you say the last cycle ended in 2017, I just don't get it, it's just insane to me to exclude the biggest cycle of all times 2020-2021 from cycles. 2021 was the top of all tops

The last “cycle” ended in 2017, when neither CRV nor CVX existed. People that are saying dumb shit like that are either being willfully ignorant of what I’ve repeated for years now or are purposefully misrepresenting what I’ve said because they are salty and can’t take responsibility for their own decisions.

@CredibleCrypto Tbh it looks like 0.3 is already stopping us from reaching ath

Well as stated many times my "most conservative target to start scaling out would be prior ATH, BUT for those looking to take some off the table before that, the only major resistance zone on $CRV between where we are now and prior ATH at $6 is the $2-$3 region. That is the most likely zone to give us some "trouble" on our way up and the only zone stopping us from reaching prior ATH. So if you are looking to de-risk for whatever reason, that would be the place to do it. For CVX the equivalent zone is between $20-$40.

Hey @CredibleCrypto been a long time follower and know your HTF targets for $CRV & $CVX but I’m curious what’s your absolute MOST conservative targets to start scaling out? $2 & $18ish? Assuming macro environment doesn’t look good (I’m aware you said not till prev ATH)

@Osemka8 Btc down, eth downer, alts even more downer

$BTC to outperform $ETH 13% more before ETH starts showing strength

@Osemka8 We can make a new low without making a low on rsi. Probably not too deep from 60k though

Also, we got the lowest 2W $BTC RSI ever, so waiting for lower prices from here goes against the odds 🤖Beep, boop, this is a scheduled post while I'm on a vacation🤖

@0xleonidas__ what is it like to have $1.24 as target when you've been trying to catch long since like 2.5? asking as a lit bagholder ;p

Glighter 🕯️ $LIT Elliott Wave 5 is running — Demand Zone reached Since January, LIT has been printing a textbook 5-wave impulse to the downside from $2.20 all the way down to $0.877. We are now deep inside the final Wave 5 / C-Wave and price is sitting right on top of a critical demand zone between $0.850 and $0.966. Three things converging here: — Fibonacci 1.0x Extension lands at $0.850 — Volume divergence visible — selling pressure is fading — Last real support structure before a full vacuum to $0.738 Bull scenario: 6H close back above $0.966 confirms the reversal. Targets: $1.099 → $1.18 → $1.24 Bear scenario: Clean close below $0.820 invalidates everything. Next stop $0.738. Watching the 6H close closely

@Osemka8 such a powerful move can break demand zones. crv for example doesn't look to have something below here at all

@Trollgee Depends on their demand zones

This scenario (quoted post) would produce those bull divs that have, so far, formed at each bottom It's a scenario to have in mind in case you are reading or hearing about some exogenous scary event as it would probably produce a strong temporary move down. Just for you to be prepared for every case. Discussed this possibility today with the subscribers a bit more in-depth. There's also one instance in crypto history identical to the one mentioned below that also came with a super scary end-of-the-world scenario, but produced a crazy buying opportunity. Any guesses? HTF picture would not change one bit. Would just have to stomach it if it comes, and if it does, you'll remember this post. Don't worry

@asimovinc R. Asimov

This is Asimov v1. We're planning to open-source the complete body design, simulation files, and a full list of actuators. Asimov v1 includes everything you need to build, modify, and train your own humanoid.

@Osemka8 in 2022 it tooks a month (or months) to make a new low and form a div, we had a decent bounce before that, like 75-79 in the current prices

Very little chance we aren't going for bullish divergences here on BTC and alts, imo. Short term pain, but very beneficial

@CredibleCrypto Yes but if it moves on par with eth it and wicks down to say 0.17 to clean the equal lows down there while still maintaining this support lvl to eth

@Trollgee CRV/ETH is on HTF support- it should perform better than ETH not worse.

ETH/BTC still holding nicely above our ultimate target in the HTF green zone below. As covered in my newest update vid (pinned tweet), the path in the chart above is still my primary expectation (visiting HTF supply above first), but ultimately, whenever we get to the HTF zone in green below, I think $ETH will make for a solid buy on the USD pairing. Assuming we do visit the untapped supply above first, would expect something like the chart below on the USD pairing. Ultimately, $ETH is simply in a massive range since 2021 that I am pretty confident will break to the upside. There are still a lot of uncertainties and the above scenario is only logical if $BTC is forming a bottom in the current HTF zone it is in (which I think is certainly possible), but I will of course re-evaluate if/when we are presented with new info. For now, continuing to watch how PA develops from here.

@CredibleCrypto btc down 33% over the last 3 months and silver is still up 66% the last three month

Bitcoin down 33% over the last 3 months while Silver is down 33% in the last 24 hours. A week ago we were being told to rotate our crypto into silver and gold because of crypto “weakness”. I guess it’s time for those silver and gold guys to rotate into crypto now?

@CredibleCrypto @crabtrader well it works the other way as well, been hearing about crv going to the moon for years :P

@crabtrader Yea yea yea been hearing it for 5 months but still above 74k 🤷‍♂️

tap tap tap

@astronomer_zero And why altcoins haven't done as bad as you think well I bet they have. most of them went down like -70 -80% since october and -90% from ath

#Alts, my cyclical buys, and the state of the altcoin market. And why altcoins haven't done as bad as you think, why the bearishness on altcoins is more a sentiment read, and less reality based. And per consequence and per $BTC.D analysis, also why I am rather bullish on them. That is one lengthy title, I apologize. But where one-liners or short posts are great for engagement, all they do, most of the time, is describe sentiment, as, anyone could just say "alts have been doing badly, I told you". Which would get a lot of clicks indeed, make the person seem as if he or she is right, as that indeed does sound catchy and that triggers a high polarity discussion, feeding the bearish sentiment on altcoins and giving many people what they want to hear, many what they absolutely don't want to hear, both generate engagement. Personally, I don't like doing that, as you know. I like to look at the facts. It is more boring, but facts make money. So let's do that, and evaluate how altcoins actually have been doing instead of living up to the hype/whatever generates engagement. You know I like to face reality as well as show you the reality of trading/the real numbers, so let's do the same with this rather heated topic, truly showing you how altcoins actually have been doing with an as unbiased and as non-cherry picked analysis as possible. (Critical question to pause and before moving further: did altcoins actually do that bad or is it just sentiment and are they actually holding up fairly, ready for more?) My cyclical altcoin portfolio and results today Idea of this post came along as I had a look at my "non cherry-picked" altcoin portfolio that I built back when I believed bitcoin put its bottom (projected years back during my post, see below, expecting $BTC to bottom at 15k in 2023). Mind you I only had 700 odd followers back then, probably none of you have experienced this tweet although if you did, congrats. But so just quoting the tweet for reference below. During those times, I invested 20% of my crypto holdings into altcoins (doing it my way i.e. sticking to altcoins in the top 30), as well as 80% into $BTC. This was a mere experiment as well as a cyclical bet, buying the bottom/close to (done✅), selling the top (in progress ⌛️), by building model altcoin portfolio with a chunk of the profits from shorting the 2022 bear market. Haven't touched anything of that yet, but I might in 2026, our key marked year in all markets, so before I do, I had a look of what the performance of each portfolio is. And funnily enough, my $BTC portfolio has risen by a factor of 5.5x, my alt portfolio by a factor of 5.63x, barely any difference. What altcoins I bought and why altcoins are disliked atm So what altcoins did I buy, and how did my portfolio do practically equally well as just holding $BTC, yet why are alts so disliked, if my portfolio did so well? Answering the former more detailed later, but in short: they were simply just picks out of the top 10/ top 30. Nothing special, nothing cherry picked. Anyone knows these coins. Answering the latter, why they are so disliked and negative-engagement farmed upon, then comes down to sentiment, as well as "geniuses" on this platform using complex formulas trying to manipulate data into making you believe altcoins didn't do as well as $BTC. This is called bias fitting, feeding the sentiment and engagement farming easy topics. Now I am not going to say that altcoins did do better than $BTC, that simply is not the case (some did, but some didn't, but we care about a non-cherry picked fair average). And I am not going to say they did worse either, that is unfair and not reflecting reality. The answer is simple, they did fairly equal to $BTC. How can we figure that out? It comes down to which altcoins you look at and how you select that so called non-cherry picked fair average (NCPFA) And sadly, upon selecting the average performance, this is where the cherry picking often comes in, and wrong cherry picking, explains altcoins are not liked as much. Cherry picking, is not only common in altcoins by the way, it is done all the time in analysis to fit a bias and sentiment, anyway.. not the topic of today. As you know, there are multiple categories of altcoins. One simple classification: 1⃣There are top 30 alts, safe bets 2⃣There are top 30-top 500 alts, riskier bets 3⃣Low caps, mostly highly speculative bets. As you know, I always aim for exposure in top 30 alts, and upon very rare opportunity, an attempt into a "low cap" bet. Those micro caps, can either perform a 50-500x, or do nothing / bleed to zero. Where the top 30, mostly move along with the overall intent of the altcoin market. So while I could pretend as if I invested in all those shiny microcaps at the exact right time and made 1000's of multiples on my initial (Case🥇, which I clearly didn't do, it is not my expertise), or on the other hand, make you believe I lost millions by buying the top ( case 🥉, sadly, the reality of many with the schemes this cycle around), or, simply invested in the top 30 without too much thinking (case 🥈, the middle ground). Indeed case 🥈 is what I did, with the simple goal in mind of "simply tagging along with the altcoin market". Along with a fair average, the NCPFA, exactly my goal. This case 🥈, did not do as well as the select few successful trench warriors indeed (many profiles faked their gains, but to their credit, a very select few performed real reviews), nor did it do as bad as the large large majority who keeps on chasing green (which never pays off, sadly the majority of viewers indeed). So the reason alts are disliked at the moment, is exactly because of case 🥉, with people promoting alts up to a celebrity level, drawing all the attention, and falsely skewing the altcoin data with large dilutions on those meaningless altcoins, whilst drawing in the majority of the crowd. Another reason is airdrops, they were large from the start but mostly went down only making alt/btc valuations look bad, and again, the majority is wrecked. Both of these create a bad sentiment and bad taste on the altcoin market, and easily presentable bad looking charts, not presenting reality. Sure, when they go up 10,000% and go back down -99% and the majority ends up with nothing, only a few people profit, indeed, that creates a bitter sentiment. Another reason for the wide disliking of alts and thus the bad sentiment, is expectation based. Because altcoins (the average upside in the top 30) are always expected to run a lot more than $BTC each cycle by the time it ends (another critical question: has it ended yet?). So even if they don't, and say, just ran equally so far such as now, well then they are also considered unfavorable even if you made an exact same amount of money. Running equally, is exactly what they did. As I will show, indeed with the altcoins I bought back begin 2023: The ones I bought then, were simply a selection of the top 30 (10 picks, mostly going for the most established alts back at the start of 2023, and they still are more or less top 10 today.) So, I will list them below, and simply show how well they performed versus $BTC. Again, they are pretty much simply the top 10, almost 0 cherry picking, taking the price of 1 January 2023, a time where my 15k came along (I bought a little higher, 17k), so all bought during the same day, no cherry picking on entries either (in reality, no one buys the bottom). Below my portfolio situation: Coin | Entry Time | Entry Price | Price today | Gain $BTC | 1 Jan '23 | 16,538 | 91,333 | 5.52 x $ETH | 1 Jan '23 | 1174 | 3133 | 2.66 x $XRP | 1 Jan '23 | 0.34 | 2.08 | 6.14 x $BNB | 1 Jan '23 | 246 | 884 | 3.59 x $SOL | 1 Jan '23 | 9.97 | 134 | 13.39 x $TRX | 1 Jan '23 | 0.054 | 0.294 | 5.41 x $DOGE | 1 Jan '23 | 0.075 | 0.16 | 2.03 x $ADA | 1 Jan '23 | 0.246 | 0.396 | 1.62 x $BCH | 1 Jan '23 | 96.92 | 642.65 | 6.63 x $LINK | 1 Jan '23 | 5.56 | 13.32 | 2.39 x $ZEC | 1 Jan '23 | 37.26 | 507.86 | 13.63 x If equal shares were invested in each altcoin, that averages out the gain to 5.7x. I personally am slightly heavier into $ETH, which pulls down the average slightly to 5.63x instead. So, I think my personal portfolio example clear and in simple math terms shows, that saying "altcoins have underperformed", is an outright misrepresentation. Engagement farmers will try to make you think they did badly, zooming in on the celebrity coins, whatever the reason might be (I told you, or coping, or taking some bad bets, or wrecked on one of such pump and dumps presented by a celebrity, now needing to express themselves or seeking attention, I don't know). But it does reflect the sentiment, of how they haven't gone up in infinite sense yet, just tagging along with $BTC. So no matter who tries to tell you that holding (top 10) alts is worse than $BTC and however they try to shape or find complex data to fit their bias and make it seem they are right, it's not truly the case and rather just a sentiment farm in my humble view. For the reasons I just explained, presenting data on alts, usually includes all the ones that have done really bad too or bled out, which "all-containing" alt versus $BTC metrics, look bad. Best to look at the top 10 or top 30, and place your bets on those to ride the altcoin market, the Astronomer way. Sentiment on alts and meaning forward. The state of the altcoins, engagement farming, or just general tone of how "altcoins are bad", and especially how it peaks again now, does help us confirm further forward that IMO another leg up is coming, for us to farm some nice gains into once more. So, just like the October 2024 bottom where I bull posted alts heavily, and the majority got bearish, this same bottom right now, is another one of those. I posted the $BTC.D chart to project my thoughts, as well as my $ETH thoughts ( $ETH leads the alts, still today, but what changed today is the max pre-run of 2 months instead of instant response of alts due to institutional involvement in $ETH) And now, another hint on alts. And on an ending note, I indeed haven't cherry picked the time of sharing this portfolio. In fact I showed it whilst most alts are still down bad relative to what we expect (but equally up compared to $BTC on average). Still, for now. And while many are saying the top is in. The cycle isn't finished yet, and I do believe alts will have their general "outperformance" by the end of it. The top 10/top 30 that is. I don't care about any random cherry-picked altcoin. Summary; TLDR The state of the altcoin market is often misrepresented by many characters on X. Due to a combination of heavily skewed data (lots of airdrops, slowly bleeding after launch, lots of coin dilutions, high gain-instant bleeding launches) and a sentiment that is still bearish on alts as they have underperformed compared to last cycles expectations, in which characters often it their bias with often misrepresented data. Yes they haven't done better than $BTC, but not worse either, compared to $BTC. Best to not cherry pick, look at the top 30 or top 10, and compare how those altcoins did versus $BTC. You mostly find indeed the same thing my portfolio did. That isn't exciting, but that isn't bad either, and still ads to the bearish sentiment. That bearish sentiment, currently peaking again (the 4 year cycle ended, $BTC 50k calls etc, does show us that altcoins are heavily under appreciated however, which reflects in literal sense in underappreciation price. That confirms our bearish analysis on $BTC.D, going so far, so good. We will see where we land by the end of the cycle.

@nobrainflip It’s not their revenue, it’s fees for the LPs. Their revenue is about 40M

Can someone explain to me why Meteora, having revenue of $1.25B in 2025, is trading at $137M? For comparison, HYPE earned $900M and is trading at $6B. So $HYPE trades at ~60x higher P/E than $MET And HYPE P/E isn't bad - it’s 6.6x (default tech companies trade at 20-25x)

@degengambleh we're not getting a bounce. everyone's waiting for a bounce to unload the shitcoins they bought when CT told the altseason was coming

Things to do right now: Survive Buy highly discounted stuff Stable up at the ~110k bounce Log off for a few. Don't quit, our time will come.

@Osemka8 well going to 120B support breaks the triangle from your pinned post. also after such a move even getting back to the current levels would be a whole altseason

@Trollgee See pinned post why short term bearishness means htf bullishness. You have to understand the structure

Speaking only from technical POV, this is a bullish structure as a whole. A finished 1-5 impulse, and a C leg, of the ABC correction, not yet concluded. This is a scenario where it'd mean the correction is done in January, or a few weeks later if the correction is deeper. That means that a new cycle starts then after a year long correction ends. If we need to accumulate after or impulse right away, is anyone's guess. But speculating based on nothing is the worst thing you can do, because rationale stems from emotion more often than not. This is altcoins cycle as a whole, but individually each altcoin is on its different one and you'll have to put in some effort to pick the best looking one.

@0xRacist Bullish

I have something I need to get off my chest. 10 years ago, me and Vladimir Novakovski (founder of Lighter) used to run a tinder swindler type of operation on seeking arrangement and similar websites where we would offer to pay women to go on dates, but then ghost and never pay them. We did this for over 2 years. It was a great time. We were both so busy with work that we couldn't meet women IRL and this was an easy way to date 9s and 10s with little effort. Eventually the feds caught on and arrested Vlad. They gave him a deal so he ratted on me to escape his prison sentence. AMA