Tropical Weather Service

🚨PRONÓSTICO 2024🚨 La NOAA acaba de publicar su primer pronóstico para la temporada de ciclónica 2024 y es el más violento en la historia para el mes de Mayo. Se espera inicialmente la formación de 17 a 25 Tormentas, 8 a 13 Huracanes y de 4 a 7 Mayores (cat 3 a 5).

An absolutely stunning view of a large haboob sweeping across Texas.

Rojo, azul y blanco, colores que se llevan dentro y siempre se sienten 🇩🇴🫀 ¡Feliz Día de la Independencia al mejor país del mundo!

This is what explosive extratropical intensification looks like. The central core pressure has dropped to ~970 mbar this morning, similar to that of a Category 2 Hurricane. An all-out blizzard is now raging in New England as this titanic, winterstorm cyclone continues to swirl.

Tropa Quisqueyana LISTA 🇩🇴⚾️ Roster dominicano para el #WorldBaseballClassic 🏆 #DominicanoYYa

This looks Brutal!

That flow tho.

Snow flurry fever for Saturday night! It’s true, there’s a chance of Gulf Effect Flurries Saturday night. While not likely, it’s about as good a shot as we get in the Tampa Bay Area. This animation shows how Gulf Effect works. You need a long, cold fetch over “warm” water. We have that, although more NW wind rather than NNW would be better. You need at least a 25° difference between the Gulf temp and the cloud level. We have 40°+! And you also need decently moist air… And here’s the issue. We have enough moisture in the clouds but very dry air above it. So if this is going to happen, the instability due to the huge temp difference has to overcome the dry cap above. Given that cloud temps will be all-time record #cold, there’s a small chance of #snow ❄️ flakes. Small but mighty 🙂

NEXT WEEKEND: Is looking really interesting. The pattern is very favorable for another winter storm, just a lot farther south. Models are coming back to the idea of that. We'll see if it does hold, but if in fact that occurs, major to possibly record cold could surge all the way into Florida. And yes, there would be enough could easily around for snowflakes in the southeast (Georgia, South Carolina and Florida again). The whole forecast is tied to if and how strong a storm forms off the east coast. Strong storm, means stronger push of cold into Florida and the southeast, and also a chance of flakes somewhere. Weak or no storm, means still really cold, but not record setting/major etc. It has not dipped below 25 degrees in Orlando for air temps. since 2010, and only before then was 1989 until you go way back in time. Definitely at least some potential is there. Watching Saturday into next Sunday for sure closely! More to come in the next few days as confidence increases.

MODELS SHOW MY INITIAL SNOWFALL CALL… BUT WATCH THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS! I adjusted the forecast map to reflect a bit more cold air holding over #NYC and parts of Long Island — and I expanded the 10”+ zone into NYC. That said… I still see a shallow sleet layer developing S&E of NYC during part of the storm. Even if it’s brief, it can cut totals and compact snowfall. Farther south into southern NJ, the warm layer looks deeper, which raises the threat of freezing rain — a dangerous setup with potential power outages. Big snow signal remains just outside NYC and PHILLY: ✅ higher snow ratios ✅ intense frontogenesis banding (FGN) ✅ front-end thump + secondary low snowfall ✅ added lift/jet dynamics Here's a localized look at snow potential numbers (model based) to give you some baseline. Again MOST snow falling at the initial thump over central new Jersey when snow ratios are at it's highest. ON @PIX11News RIGHT NOW with LIVE storm tracking

Not one, not two, not three, but four or five plunges of polar air will probably hit the United States through the end of the month 🥶 The third, fourth and fifth episodes currently look to bring the most severe cold.

Legit #cold 🥶 is coming to #Florida this upcoming week! Cold will arrive Tuesday, but Wednesday will be the coldest morning. Actual low temps (not wind chills) will be near or below freezing north of I-4. But even areas as far south as Lake Okeechobee will approach the upper 30s briefly.

After an extraordinary holiday heat dome across the US, get ready for a Polar Vortex Invasion next week! Cold air will surge deeeeeep South with 20s in the Southeast and 30s far south into #Florida. What’s most interesting is airmass won’t be super cold up north - just slightly below normal. Instead the South will get the brunt, with the SE & FL 15-20° below normal!

Here's a closer look at snow timing today through Saturday.

COLD COMING: Christmas will be warm and nice, New Years Eve next week is looking frosty. Major, but brief shot of cold next Tuesday and Wednesday into Florida. Actual air temps. shown below. Freeze potential at least as far south as Ocala feasible. Wind chills lower than these also! @fox35orlando

00z GFS with big snowstorm Friday night into Saturday for NYC metro 👀 ❄️

Why America feels colder than Europe. [📹 thefactile]

FROZEN FOOTBALL SUNDAY! Check out these extremely frigid temperatures and wind chills for kickoffs on Sunday. No domes here. These games all have playoff implications, plus fantasy football playoffs begin this week. Would you want to try to tackle Derrick Henry in negative wind chills??? Ouch!! @weatherchannel #NFL #football

BRUTAL. This looks excruciating. #Midwest #cold #fyp #chicago #arctic

Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!

❄️ SUNDAY SNOWFALL: TWO TRACK SCENARIOS IN PLAY TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON Both potential storm tracks continue to support accumulating snowfall across NJ, PA, NY, and CT this weekend. A fast-moving wave of low pressure will ride along a sharp thermal gradient separating Arctic air from milder air to the south. Because this system is quick—really quick—snowfall totals will be limited, but meaningful. Here are the two scenarios: 1️⃣ Track South — “The Dive Too Far” A farther-south wave keeps the frontal boundary suppressed, limiting snow northward into MD/PA. The white zone would see a general 2–4". 2️⃣ Track Slightly North — “Nudged Low” A modest north shift places the 2–4" band over central NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Philadelphia. 🌨️ Areas near the edges of the snow band can expect a dusting to 1". 🔥 Key factor: Ground surfaces will be very cold, with a solid cold-air foundation—so whatever falls will stick quickly. On @PIX11News until 10am with more details.