Tom /Kryptonite💫
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Prediction markets are a (poorly understood) multi-billion dollar industry. This @LawofCodeFM episode is a multi-hour deep dive on prediction markets, from conclave betting in 15th century Rome to proposed rulemaking from the @CFTC earlier this month. My goal: the internet's most comprehensive explainer on prediction markets. I spent several months and over 100 hours on this podcast, and spoke to the world's leading experts on the legal layer of prediction markets: @robertjdenault, @WALLACHLEGAL, @SPSchropp, Sam Enzer, @iampaulgrewal, @BradBourque, @ThaniaCh, @passalacqua_mj, @JoshSterlingLaw, @_jamico, as well as @KolemanStrumpf, @mattkalish, with clips from prior conversations with @giancarloMKTS, @DustinGouker. By the end of this episode, I promise you'll be in the top percentile for understanding prediction markets, regardless of your starting point. (You just might want to listen twice. There's a lot here.) 0:00 Intro 1:40 16th century papal betting @KolemanStrumpf 11:13 Insider trading rules @robertjdenault 16:20 The Google insider case 27:38 Why prediction markets matter @giancarloMKTS 33:20 Election betting in America 44:50 Iowa Electronic Markets 52:11 Dodd-Frank, swaps and the Special Rule 54:23 Senator Lincoln on sports contracts 1:02:04 Parlays as swaps 1:07:38 CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction @ThaniaCh 1:13:45 Perspective on CFTC's NPRM @passalacqua_mj 1:21:10 Exceptions that swallow the rule @iampaulgrewal 1:33:40 How prediction markets actually work 1:42:20 Kalshi's fee structure 1:44:33 Cardi B and the resolution problem @DustinGouker 1:51:20 @Polymarket's decentralized resolution @_jamico 1:58:10 The Ninth Circuit case 2:14:04 CFTC's proposed rulemaking @BradBourque, @SPSchropp 2:25:21 @Kalshi's landmark 2024 win 2:29:20 PASPA, Murphy v. NCAA @WALLACHLEGAL 2:51:29 The case against banning prediction markets @robertjdenault Nothing in this podcast is legal or investment advice. Thank you to the sponsors of this episode, @CahillGordon (@NYcryptolawyer), @HyperliquidPC and .


Today, we became aware of a security incident involving one or more malicious actors. The affected smart contract is 0x764C64b2A09b09Acb100B80d8c505Aa6a0302EF2 and we strongly advise the public not to interact with this contract until further notice. We are in contact with law enforcement and taking all available measures to address the situation. We will share updates through our official channels as they become available.


















