Koleman Strumpf

@ashleytrubin The AAUP paid the administrative costs of someone doing a state foia fishing expedition: the request was so boilerplate they even requested records from before I started my job (a decade plus of emails and more were requested). Working at a state school has its downsides.

@ashleytrubin Incredible (in a terrible way). I had a not very nice run in with AAUP at my prior job, I do not find the inconsistency surprising

It's pretty rich that a group of scholars trying to prohibit another group of scholars from engaging in professional activities is complaining about incursions on academic freedom.

Meanwhile on Polymarket... Markets not only reflect polls they also weight their importance and accuracy. 2/ polymarket.com/event/north-ca…

Do prediction markets simply regurgitate polls? No. They treat them as another data point. Take NC Senate race. A recent poll suggested it was had gotten much closer. Charlotte Observer claimed it a better poll was than others giving Dems a big lead. 1/ charlotteobserver.com/opinion/articl…

@EventWavesIO Oh my gosh thanks! I tried looking just now at a bunch of older Polymarket contracts and I did not find any of the id's in the events file. I am sure I am doing something wrong. I can send along one of the files I am using if you want to have a look

I just added it! api.eventwaves.io/polymarket/eve… Missing 1.9k out of 272k right now, but I'll clean those up soon. In the API docs, I put an example of how to combine the Polymarket Events data to the EventWaves category data eventwaves.io/api-docs If you have any questions about how to join from events -> markets or anything, just let me know. I'm trying to release a big Polymarket project early next week. If that goes well, I'll create a Kalshi version shortly thereafter and will need to create a similar API --- Also, I'm looking at some of the early Polymarket events and looks like they didn't have subcategory details. I'll try to add that in tomorrow

Made a free API that gives you the category/subcategory for each Polymarket I'm open to any Category additions/changes!

@EventWavesIO Just wanted to check in on this. No rush of course just be very cool to see tags for older markets (even better if it can be done for Kalshi too!)

@KolemanStrumpf No worries, I already keep a record of that, so it doesn’t take much to add it. I like making stuff people use Will let you know!

@SemioticRivalry interesting I had not seen this. Yes the movement was more recent than I first saw

@KolemanStrumpf It's due to this poll, not the metoo. He arguably went up after the me too but likely just noise. x.com/i/status/20339…

Prediction markets to measure impact of being MeToo'd. The fav in Dem Primary for IL-09 (heavily Blue) was accused of grooming a former student when he was a math prof. His election chances fell ~15%, but have mostly reverted. 1/ x.com/benryanwriter/… polymarket.com/event/il-09-de…

@ashleytrubin Ouch that last sentence!

I'd say folks tend to study this more in relation to inequality related to POC. There's an ongoing challenge in studying economic disadvantages because it opens up the class v. race debate, which some folks are opposed to engaging. In some subfields, there used to be attention to the interplay of race, gender, and class, but they switched to race and gender. But it's inconsistent. And there are exceptions, including some folks who got in trouble for studying/prioritizing class (or finding class rather than race), but who were later forgiven.

New substack: Trends in AJS Articles open.substack.com/pub/ashleytrub…

@ashleytrubin Curious if there is more/less discussion of income inequality, poverty, etc which at one time i thought was bread-and-butter for many sociologists. Sociologist friends awhile back were very into discussing the Nickel and Dimed book.

Thanks! Interesting question. I'd be curious to look at things like "market" and such, too. But I expected to see more with "capitalis*" since it's such a boogeyman. But I'm not sure if economic stuff has shifted; if economic stuff has remained, my guess is its narrowed to include inequality. This happened in organizational sociology, which moved from the neat field-level stuff of the 1970s to more interpersonal dynamics like gender relations among employees or employees to employers (there's still some cool stuff, but I was shocked to learn folks considered some of the older stuff "conservative").

@benryanwriter Yes matches up with the Polymarket link I posted

@KolemanStrumpf She did a Substack on the deets.

Is “grooming” the right word for it when a 26 year old assistant math professor asks out his 20 year old college student at the end of term after being very chummy during office hours, and then the two go out for a spell and kiss but never have sex?

@benryanwriter Yes hard to find the right term without knowing more details. As an aside I had not realized this was such a big topic on twitter now, it is pretty much my entire feed now.

“Buttered up” is probably a more accurate way of putting at it. As for a power imbalance, did he have power over her after he’d turned in her grades? Would he be able to impact her final three semesters in college or her efforts to matriculate to a grad program, if she chose that path? Maybe? And maybe only if she sought to get into U Chicago’s program? Or for some reason she had no other option but to get a letter of rec from him?

Tv viewership of oscars has nose dived. Perhaps leveraging more active viewer engagement via prediction markets could bump the ratings? My view for a while and only mentioned in passing at the end of the article. 2/

Oscars: @nytimes article on prediction markets forecasting @TheAcademy award. Funniest part of are folks whose job is literally forecasting oscars saying markets are uncouth and interior to their own "expert" predictions. 1/ nytimes.com/2026/03/14/mov…

@NewsHour Glad to see historical election markets being discussed, but I wish the guest gave a more accurate depiction. For example, traders then and now also invested in traditional financial markets. See the link below for details: users.wfu.edu/strumpks/paper…

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to @GeoffRBennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode: to.pbs.org/4sGNciC

@paulnovosad Sigh. What is the counterfactual. We had tons of sports betting pre-overturning PASPA. What changed social norms towards gambling was when the govt started to run and promote their own: lotteries. We now have colorful lottery vending machines designed for kids at supermarkets.

The old stigma on gambling existed for a reason. The U.S. is running a reckless social experiment by normalizing this vice. A tiny bunch of companies and investors will make shitloads of money, and people's lives and communities will be impoverished for it.