Clément Molin@clement_molin
Interestingly, Rybar is saying some things worth reading about the overall situation, especially with what is happening in Stepnohirsk :
📝Logistics Problems📝
Deeper Than They Seem
The situation in Russia's southern regions is becoming increasingly threatening. Since early May, Ukrainian forces have significantly increased the number of drone strikes against vehicles transporting various goods to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea. There is a risk of shortages of certain goods on the peninsula, and fuel sales are restricted.
The threat is not only the disruption of the Crimean holiday season or the shortage of certain products on the peninsula. Strikes against cargo carriers on the peninsula directly impact the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern fronts, where the situation is already precarious.
🔻What's happening on the front?
➡️The enemy has been attacking the Kamenskoye area for a long time and has managed to advance in several areas, pushing back Russian forces: Stepnogorsk and Plavni have been nearly lost, along with virtually all territorial gains made by the Russian Armed Forces during the offensive that began in early 2025.
➡️There is a risk that the enemy will not only restore the status quo but also launch an offensive along the Kamenskoye-Shcherbaki line. Indirect signs indicate that the problems in this area have been addressed, but the situation remains difficult.
➡️Ukrainian drone operators have significantly increased their activity in strikes against Kamenka-Dniprovska, Vodyane, and Enerhodar. Every 20-30 minutes, local public groups report dozens of drone attacks on the city. There have been casualties among the local population. Employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are also becoming targets, as officially reported by the company's resources.
➡️This may indicate that the enemy is preparing, if not a full-scale landing, then a diversionary strike through the reeds at the bottom of the former Kakhovka Reservoir.
The loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant cannot be allowed: dislodging even small enemy forces from there will be an extremely difficult task. Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces will be severely limited in their means of destruction, as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is not a target worth targeting with airstrikes.
❗️Considering that Ukrainian forces have already partially paralyzed the logistics of southern Russia in the land corridor to Crimea, it is not difficult to imagine what will happen if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to breach the Russian Armed Forces' defenses along the Kamenskoye-Shcherbaki line.
📌The Russian Armed Forces will have to deploy reinforcements along the route to Vasilyevka, the roads to which are already under frequent enemy attack. In the worst-case scenario, stabilizing the situation will require the deployment of additional forces via routes such as Tokmak and the more distant Berdyansk and Mariupol. Even the delivery of civilian cargo along these routes is already severely disrupted.
❓What can be done about this? The issue of organizing a "small sky" air defense system is clear and has been studied. It has also been discussed at the highest levels. The exponential increase in attacks after the May holidays is obvious, even though the roads were unsafe even before. Just in time for the beginning of May, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tested Hornets, and after the ceasefire, they began massive use, giving no respite to develop countermeasures.
t.me/rybar/80586
